ESWW11 - Session

9 - Open Session on Recent Advances in Space Weather Science

Ronald Van der Linden and the ESWW11 Program Committee

This session is open to contributions detailing recent advances related to all aspects of space weather scientific research that are not covered in other sessions in the programme of this year's European Space Weather Week. In recognition of the fact that Space Weather is at the moment a buoyant field of research over the full extent of its multidisciplinary content, and not all of these topics can be granted a dedicated plenary session in the programme, we open this session to posters and oral presentations that may not fit the particular thematic focus of this year's ESWW. Contributions accepted for this sessions should demonstrate recent and timely advances in science underpinning space weather services and operations. Oral presentations will be selected from the contributed abstracts (i.e. no a priori invited talks will be included). Abstract proposers should carefully demonstrate the relevance of their work for Space Weather research and operations.

Talks and First Class Posters
Wednesday November 19, 09:00-10:30, auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Poster Viewing
Wednesday November 19, 10:30-11:30, area in front of auditorium Reine Elisabeth.
Poster viewing of this session is simultaneous and in the same area with the viewing of the posters of session 10: Open session on Space Weather Applications and Engineering Concerns .

Talks and First Class Posters

The numbering of the posters might differ from the numbering on the page with the short overview without abstracts.

9:00 am	The Solar Stormwatch CME Catalogue.
	Barnard, L¹; Scott, C¹; Owens, M¹; Lockwood, M¹; Tucker-Hood, K¹; Davies, J²; Crothers, S²; Lintott, C³; Savani, N⁴; Simpson, R³; Bamford, S³; Smith, A³
	¹University of Reading; ²Rutherford Appleton Laboratory; ³University of Oxford; ⁴Naval Research Laboratory
	Since the launch of the twin STEREO satellites in late 2006, the Heliospheric Imagers have been used, with good results, in tracking transients of solar origin, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), out through the inner heliosphere. A frequently used approach is to build a “J-Map”, in which multiple elongation profiles along a constant position angle are stacked in time, building an image in which radially propagating transients form curved tracks in the J-Map. From this the time-elongation profile of a solar transient can be manually identified. This is a time consuming and laborious process, and the results are subjective, depending on the skill and expertise of the investigator. With the Heliospheric Imager data it is possible to follow CMEs from the outer limits of the solar corona all the way to 1AU. Solar Stormwatch is a citizen science project that employs the power of thousands of volunteers to both identify and track CMEs in the Heliospheric Imager data. The CMEs identified by Solar Stormwatch are tracked many times by multiple users and this allows the calculation of consensus time-elongation profiles for each event and also provides an estimate of the error in the consensus profile. Therefore this system does not suffer from the potential subjectivity of individual researchers identifying and tracking CMEs. In this sense, the Solar Stormwatch system can be thought of as providing a middle ground between manually identified CME catalogues, such as the CDAW list, and CME catalogues generated through fully automated algorithms, such as CACtus and ARTEMIS etc. We provide a summary of the reduction of the Solar Stormwatch data into a catalogue of CMEs observed by STEREO-A and STEREO-B through the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and review some key statistical properties of these CMEs. The reliability of the Solar Stormwatch identified CMEs is assessed by comparison of these results with a set of manually identified CMEs, extracted and analysed by an individual researcher. Through some case studies of the propagation of CMEs out into the inner heliosphere we argue that the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, which publishes the time-elongation profiles of CMEs observed at multiple position angles, is a new and valuable dataset for space weather community.
9:15 am	Dynamics of Particles in the Vicinity of the Heliospheric Current Sheet: Observations Versus Theory
	Khabarova, O¹; Zharkova, V²; Li, G²
	¹IZMIRAN (Institute of terrestrial magnetism), Moscow, 142190; ²Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 1XE; ²Department of Space Science and CSPAR, University of Alabama in Huntsville, AL 35899
	We present the results of multi-spacecraft tracking of the heliospheric current sheet consequently observed by Messenger, STEREO B, ACE, WIND, STEREO A and Ulysses at different heliocentric distances and helio-longitudes. The main feature of the HCS from 0.3 AU to 1 AU is that its crossings are always associated with clear signatures of the magnetic reconnection: plasma exhausts, heating, ropes and bounced electrons clouds. Characteristics of these phenomena strongly depend on the HCS topology and vary with distance. It was shown that many processes observed in the solar wind plasma around the HCS may be explained if one supposes the magnetic reconnection recurrently occurring at many X-points along the entire sheet, which results to additional electric field produced by electrons and protons separated to different sides of the HCS (Zharkova, Khabarova, ApJ, 2012). We compare measurements of plasma and magnetic field characteristics around the HCS with theoretical estimations and discuss most realistic scenarios being in agreement with observations and probe them by numerous alternative theories explaining particles acceleration in current sheets (Zelenyi et al., 2013; Drake et al. 2010, 2013; Büchner et al, 2010; Lapenta 2012).
9:30 am	A Carrington-like Geomagnetic Storm Observed in 21st century
	Cid, C¹; Saiz, E¹; Palacios, J¹; Guerrero, A¹; Cerrato, Y¹
	¹University of Alcala
	In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. We have discovered a geomagnetic disturbance extraordinarily similar to the Carrington one recorded in 2003, with a large dataset from modern observatories available along the Sun-to-Earth chain. The comparison between both events lead us to relevant conclusions: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H indices might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large drop in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT) (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but Region 1 (R1) field-aligned currents (FACs); (c) the interplanetary trigger of the Carrington storm was not an intense long-duration southern interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), but a abrupt southward reversal, keeping the IMF southward around 15 min.
9:45 am	A COSPAR/ILWS roadmap towards advanced space weather science to protect society's technological infrastructure
	Schrijver, Karel¹; Kauristie, Kirsti²
	¹Lockheed Martin STAR Labs; ²Finnish Meteorological Institute
	As mankind’s technological capabilities grow, society constructs a rapidly deepening insight into the workings of the universe at large, being guided by exploring space near to our home. But at the same time our societal dependence on technology increases and with that comes a growing appreciation of the challenges presented by the phenomena that occur in that space around our home planet. The complexity of the coupled Sun-Earth system, the sparseness by which it can be covered by remote-sensing and in-situ instrumentation, and the costs of the required observational and computational infrastructure warrant a well-planned and well-coordinated approach with cost-efficient solutions. COSPAR and the International Living With a Star program tasked an international team with the development of a roadmap with the goal of demonstrably improving our observational capabilities, scientific understanding, and the ability to forecast. With the team near to its final report, the presentation summarizes its prioritized recommendations to achieve these goals and the underlying rational. The team's website (with its membership) is at http://www.lmsal.com/~schryver/COSPARrm.
10:00 am	Poster Intro four highlighted posters + overview of the rest
10:15 am	Next sessions Open Session on Space Weather Applications and Engineering Concerns Poster intro four highlighted posters + overview of the rest

Posters

1	Highlighted poster	The Thermospheric Auroral Red Line Polarisation: Comparison between Theory and Observations.
		Lilensten, J¹; Bommier, V²; Barthélémy, M³; Bernard, D⁴; Lamy, H⁵; Moen, J⁶; Johnsen, M G⁷; Lovhaug, U P⁸; Pitout, F⁹
		¹CNRS; ²CNRS - LESIA; ³UJF - IPAG; ⁴CNRS - IPAG; ⁵BISA; ⁶Department of Physics, University of Oslo; ⁷Tromso Geophysical Observatory University of Tromso; ⁸Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromso; ⁹CNRS – IRAP
		The existence of the auroral red line polarisation is now an established feature. For the first time a comparison between observations and theoretical predictions is provided using the electron impact theory developed by Bommier et al (2011). This theory is able to produce the distribution of the Degree of Linear Polarisation as a function of height if the flux of precipitating electrons is provided as input. Therefore a coordinated observing campaign has been set up in February 2012 in the Svalbard archipelago using a Steerable-Photo-Polarimeter (SPP) to measure the polarisation of the red line and the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) to obtain the electron density profile. An electron transport code is used to infer the flux of precipitating electrons on top of the atmosphere which best fits the electron density profile measured by ESR. The stationary electron flux is estimated at each altitude in the ionosphere as a function of energy and pitch angle. Using adequate cross sections, the integral of this electron flux over energy and pitch angle provides an anisotropy parameter from which the theoretical DoLP can be computed at each altitude. These predictions are then compared to the measurements of the DoLP obtained independently with the SPP. The measured DoLP is 1.92% $pm$ 0.12%.The computed DoLP maximizes at 213 km with a value of 1.79%. However, the flux of precipitating electrons used to compute this DoLP profile depends on several assumptions/choices used in the electron transport code. Those concern essentially the scattering phase function, the neutral atmosphere and the ambient electron density and temperature profiles. Therefore a parametric study is performed to check how the characteristics of the DoLP (maximum value, altitude of the maximum, profile) change when these assumptions are modified. These simulations indicate that the polarisation is sensitive to the scattering function of the electrons and therefore may be used to estimate this otherwise poorly known parameter. Parametric studies are also performed by modifying external parameters such as the electron precipitation spectra and the geomagnetic activity. The DoLP varies significantly with these parameters and could therefore become a tool for space weather applications. A final discussion is provided regarding the fact that SPP measures an integrated value of the DoLP along the line-of-sight and not directly the peak value as provided by the theory.
2	Highlighted poster	The AE9/AP9 Next Generation Radiation Specification Models: Challenges
		Huston, S¹; O'Brien, T P²; Johnston, W R³; Ginet, G⁴
		¹AER, Inc.; ²The Aerospace Corporation; ³AFRL/RVBXR; ⁴MIT Lincoln Laboratory
		The AE9/AP9 model has now been released to the global scientific and satellite design communities. However, many challenges remain after version 1.0. We discuss several of these challenges: incorporating new data, solar cycle variation in the Monte Carlo model, the sample solar cycle, extending the internal magnetic field model far into the future, merging trapped with solar particle models, international collaboration. For each challenge, we put it into context and describe our strategies for progress.
3	Highlighted poster	Latitudinal Distribution of Extreme ground Geomagnetic Variations: an Extreme Value Analysis
		Wintoft, P¹; Wik, M¹
		¹Swedish Institute of Space Physics
		Variations of the ground magnetic field cause geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in power grids. The driver of GIC is the electric field resulting from the magnetic field variations modulated by the ground conductivity. To a large degree the rate-of-change of the magnetic field (dB/dt) can be used as a proxy of the electric field. To capture the relevant variations the magnetic field must be sampled with one minute resolution or better. Only a few events over the past 50 years have caused any major grid disruptions and they are all related to large local dB/dt values, typically >500 nT/min. In this work one minute geomagnetic data for locations in Europe, covering latitudes 40 to 70 degrees north, have been collected from World Data Centre - Edinburgh. Only stations with good temporal coverage extending over at least 18 years have been used. The data have been analysed using extreme value theory. For each location the generalised extreme value distribution has been estimated from the one-minute dB/dt data. From the distribution functions the expected levels of dB/dt magnitudes can be estimated within the coming e.g. 50 or 100 years, also known as the return level. The study indicates that stations north of 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude have 100-year return levels approximately equal to the observed levels, while stations south of 60 degrees have return levels 2 to 4 times higher than that observed, although there is a large degree of uncertainty in the extrapolation. The latitudinal distribution of extreme levels can be understood as an effect of the southward expansion of the auroral oval during geomagnetic storms: larger geomagnetic storms will push the oval further south leading to the highest levels of disturbance moving southward. Thus during more normal conditions the largest dB/dt will be observed at the northern locations, while during extreme events the largest dB/dt will be observed further south.
4	Highlighted poster	First Results from the HELCATS Project
		Harrison, R¹; Davies, J¹; P., C¹; Moestl, C²; Rouillard, A³; Bothmer, V⁴; Rodriguez, L⁵; Eastwood, J⁶; Kilpua, E⁷; Gallagher, P⁸; Odstrcil, D⁹
		¹RAL Space; ²University of Graz; ³Paul Sabatier University, Toulouse; ⁴University of Goettingen; ⁵Royal Observatory of Belgium; ⁶Imperial College London; ⁷University of Helsinki; ⁸Trinity College Dublin; ⁹George Mason University
		The FP7 HELCATS project is founded on the fact that heliospheric imaging has become a mature observational field with the advent of the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers (HI), building on the heritage of the Coriolis Solar Mass Ejection Imager and the Helios Zodiacal Light Photometers. The project provides a unique, comprehensive study of solar transients in the heliosphere with the application of heliospheric imaging, in conjunction with in-situ and radio observations and associated modelling techniques, with a particular emphasis on space weather applications. The core activities involve the cataloguing of heliospheric events and the derivation of kinematic and geometrical parameters of the events, applying and comparing a range of models, enabling an extensive analysis of the sources, propagation and impacts of heliospheric transient activity and enabling a validation of the models employed. The project involves eight key European groups from the UK, Austria, France, Germany, Belgium, Finland and Ireland, and was formally started in May 2014. We will present first results of the initial phases of the project, in particular, analysis of the cataloguing and modelling phase of the project. We stress that the initial cataloguing products of HELCATS provides the first comprehensive view of transient activity in the heliosphere.
5	p-poster	A New Method to Detect the ICMEs Boundaries
		Dumitrache, C¹; Popescu, N A¹
		¹Astronomical Institute of Romanian Academy
		A new method to infer the boundaries of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections is proposed. The local minima of a proton temperature anisotropy are used as potential boundaries of the interplanetary event. The low-beta plasma values are then invoked to detect at least four boundaries, two for the beginning and two for the end of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). Intermediate boundaries can be identified, as indicated by other plasma and magnetic field signatures, and mark substructures of an event. Using the algorithm we propose here, we have compiled a list with ICME events boundaries registered by emph{Ulysses} spacecraft during 2000-2002. Three magnetic clouds (observed on 23 January 2001, 10 June 2001 and 24 August 2001) are analysed with details. This method provides premises for an alternative way of automatic detection of the ICMEs boundaries.
7	p-poster	Estimation of the regional level of geomagnetically induced currents based on the local magnetic field
		Viljanen, A¹; Wintoft, P²
		¹Finnish Meteorological Institute; ²Swedish Institute of Space Physics
		Previous studies have widely demonstrated a close relationship between the time derivative of the horizontal geomagnetic field (dH/dt) and geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at a nearby location. A more general hypothesis is that the level of GIC activity in a regional power grid could also be quantified with respect to dH/dt at a single site. We considered the 30-min maximum of dH/dt, which is a quantity that can be predicted more easily than a precise time series. We compared it to the corresponding 30-min maximum of the sum of GIC at all substations in a surrounding power grid. A high linear correlation between these activity indicators was found in different parts of Europe.
8	p-poster	I Love My Sun II (2013 - ):
		Age 3 to 80 years
		Tulunay, Y¹; Tulunay, E²
		¹METU/ODTU Middle East Technical University; ²Middle East Technical University, Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
		In the present day society, there is a vital need for setting up education and outreach activities in the Space Weather field for creating a healthy environment for the proper development of Space Weather markets along with the fundamental and applied research activities. It is important to educate children about the important role that the Sun has in their lives. This presentation gives an educational outreach tool entitled “I Love My Sun” that has been developed for school children in the approximate age group 7 through 11 years. Its main objective is to make children aware of space weather , the Sun, Sun-Earth relations and how they, the children, are part of this global picture. Children are given a lecture about the Sun; this is preceded and followed by the children drawing a picture of the Sun. The activity was initiated by Y. Tulunay in Ankara, Turkey as national project in the context of the 50th anniversary of Space Age and IHY activities. Since then it has been extended into a spatial (Europe) and temporal dimensions. A metric has been developed to facilitate an objective evaluation of the outcomes of the Events. In this presentation, the background behind the “I Love My Sun” initiative is given and it is described how to perform an “I Love My Sun” event. Impressions and main results from the case studies are given. As an extension to the previous case studies, The I Love My Sun now consists of cases from age 3.5 to over 80 years old participants.
9	p-poster	Development of Space Weather and Space Climate Prediction Center in the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. First Results and Analysis
		Tassev, Y¹; Velinov, P I Y²; Mateev, L²; Tonev, P²; Dimitrova, M²
		¹Space Research and technology institute; ²Institute of Space Research and Technology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia
		New Space Weather and Space Climate Prediction Center (SWSCPC) is established in 2011 in the Institute of Space Research and Technology at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. First, the type of forecasts implemented in SWSCPC is reported. The main features of the organization and of the systematic work implemented by us by operational analysis are presented, as well. As a beginning, we started with preparation of an every day short-term (3-day) forecast of the basic physical processes in the Sun-Earth space. It includes the solar activity, as a whole, and estimation of the influences of events of solar activity (M and X class flares, coronal mass ejections, coronal holes with high speed streams, dynamics of filaments) on the geophysical activity (described by geomagnetic Kp and Ap indices). For the latter the current geomagnetic state is taken into account based on the planetary geomagnetic indices, as well as on the local ones obtained from geomagnetic observatory in Panagyurishte, Bulgaria, located on geographic coordinates: 42°30,9' N; 24°10,6' E and geomagnetic coordinates: 40°39' N; 104°57' E. An analysis is performed of the results obtained on the base of collected forecasting material of cases with geomagnetic events during the last three years (2011-2014). A critical assessment is made of the effectiveness of forecasts. We take into account such events that have been predicted with a high precision, and also events that have been not seen by the proposed forecasts. On the base of physical analysis of the last cases conclusions are derived about the possibility to forecast them more precisely. Statistical comparative analysis has been made between the predicted versus actually measured parameters. The present investigation contributes to the Space Weather scientific research and to the practice of the operational prediction.
10	p-poster	Value Added Services within the ESPAS System
		Berdermann, J
		DLR
		A Near-Earth Space Data Infrastructure for e-Science (ESPAS) is under development in the frame of the European Commission FP7 program with the aim to provide observation data from Earth’s atmosphere up to the inner magnetosphere for the scientific community and interested users. The core functionality of ESPAS is to ensure an easy and fast access to a broad range of data from a multitude of different observation instruments by use of an advanced search ontology. Although the access to more than 40 data repositories containing heterogeneous data from ground and space, in situ and remote sensed observations is a unique characteristic in itself, some efforts are put in the investigation and development of value added services (VAS) to provide the user with higher order information and special services. The VAS can be derived from the underlying metadata or via access to the real observation data. In the following we will present already existing and possible future VAS focusing on their benefit for the scientific user.
11	e-poster	Space Weather Helioviewer : Advances in the Visualisation of Heterogeneous Solar Data
		Verstringe, F¹; Bourgoignie, B¹; Nicula, B¹; David, B¹; Marqué, C¹; Delouille, V¹; Jiggens, P²; Mueller, D²
		¹Royal Observatory Belgium; ²ESTEC
		The Helioviewer project aims to complement the virtual observatories and aggregators of event catalogues by providing visualisation of solar quicklook, context and model data. Space Weather Helioviewer (SWHV, ESTEC Contract No. 4000107325/12/NL/AK) is an extension of the JHelioviewer server and client application (http://jhelioviewer.org) with space weather relevant capabilities within a streamlined user interface. SWHV will therefore enable space weather forecasters in getting quickly an overview of the current space weather situation. The SWHV system can be seen from two sides: On one hand, it allows its end users to combine the visualisation of various solar datasets in new ways. On the other hand, it develops and implements standards and APIs in order to utilise and present this plethora of data in new contexts with minimal handling overhead. The supported data is heterogeneous: it contains 1D data (timelines); 2D data (solar images and spectrograms); 3D data (multi‐spacecraft imaging, magnetic field lines modelling), solar event detections (e.g., HEK) and space weather alerts. Therefore one of the main goals of the project is to present this diverse data through a uniform and convenient API. The features newly introduced by the Space Weather Helioviewer project will be highlighted and, if possible, a live demonstration of the new capabilities will be held. SWHV is being developed with funding from ESA General Support Technology Programme (GSTP) in order to support activities as part of the ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme. Software developed will be freely available for use by the whole space weather community (as is presently the case for Helioviewer)
12	p-poster	A Modification of the Force Field Approach to Describe Sub Neutron Monitor Energies
		Gieseler, J¹; Heber, B¹; Herbst, K¹
		¹University of Kiel
		As they propagate through the heliosphere, Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) are modulated by various effects before they are detected at Earth. This transport can be described by the Parker equation (Parker, 1965). It calculates the phase space distribution of GCRs depending on the main modulation processes: convection, drifts, diffusion and adiabatic energy changes. A first order approximation of this equation is the force field approach, reducing it to a one-parameter dependency, the solar modulation potential. Utilizing this approach, Usoskin et al. (2005; 2011) reconstructed the solar modulation potential between 1936 and 2010, which by now is commonly used in many fields. However, it has been shown previously e.g. by Herbst et al. (2010) that the solar modulation potential depends not only on the Local Interstellar Spectrum (LIS) but also on the energy range of interest. Using the LIS by Usoskin et al. (2005) together with published proton intensity spectra obtained by PAMELA as well as neutron monitor and spacecraft measurements, we have investigated this energy dependence further. As expected, the results show severe limitations at lower energies including a strong dependence on the solar magnetic epoch. Based on these results, we will present a tool to describe GCR proton spectra in the energy range from a few hundred MeV to 40 GeV over the last four solar cycles.
13	p-poster	The Brazilian Multidirectional Muon Detector for Space Weather Studies
		Dal Lago, A¹; Echer, E¹; Braga, C¹; de Mendonça, R¹; Rockenbach, M¹; Schuch, N²; Munakata, K³
		¹National Institute for Space Research - INPE; ²Southern Regional Space Research Center – CRS/CCR/INPE; ³Department of Physics, Shinshu University
		Since 2001, a Multidirectional Muon Detector (MMD) is in operation at the Brazilian Southern Space Observatory (SSO/INPE), located at São Martinho da Serra (SMS), (Latitude 29º, 26’, 24’’S, Longitude 53º, 48’, 38’’W, 492m above sea level), south of Brazil. This instrument is capable of detecting muons produced by the interaction of ~50GeV galactic cosmic rays with the earth’s atmosphere. One of the main purposes of this instrument is to study space weather modulation of the high energy cosmic ray intensity observed in these particles, aiming at future application for space weather forecast. Over the years, the instrument has gone through 3 upgrades, in which detection area was increased. The current configuration of the instrument is 2 layers of 4x8 mˆ2. The MMD is a part of the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four detectors: each at Nagoya, Sao Martinho da Serra, Hobart and Kuwait. At the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the MMD is a part of the institutional Space Weather Program, which started since 2008 and aims at providing researchers and the general community regarding all solar-terrestrial physics phenomena with a comprehensive set of observations. A status report of the scientific results obtained using the SMS detector is presented.
14	p-poster	Coupling Functions for NM Total Intensity and Different Multiplicities: Analytical Approach
		Dorman, L¹
		¹Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Wearther Center of Tel Aviv University, Israel Space Agency and Golan Research Institute, Israel; IZMIRAN, Russia
		Coupling functions for NM total intensity and different multiplicities play important role when we by observed data of cosmic ray (CR) variations on the ground based detectors (mostly neutron monitors and muon telescopes) tried to determine the primary variations of CR energy spectrum out of the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere, into interplanetary space. This is especially important for forecasting expected radiation hazards from solar CR, because by determined primary solar CR energy spectrum in the interplanetary space it is possible to determine effective time of solar CR ejection into solar wind, source function and the diffusion coefficient of solar CR propagation in space in dependence of particle energy and distance from the Sun. Coupling functions are important also for investigations of Forbush effect and precursory effects for forecasting dangerous interplanetary shock waves. We check obtained results for coupling functions by latitude expedition experimental data. We found how coupling functions depend from the level of solar activity and pressure on the level of observations. Obtained results are presented in the analytical forms that are convenient to use for any NM at any place on the Earth.
15	p-poster	Atmospheric Electric Field Effect for Total NM Intensity and Different Multiplicities on Mt Hermon
		Dorman, L¹; Applbaum, D S²; Ben Israel, I²; Dai, U²; Kazantsev, V²; Kozliner, L²; Pustil'nik, L²; Sternlieb, A²; Zukerman, I²; Zukerman, Igor²
		¹Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Wearther Center of Tel Aviv University, Israel Space Agency and Golan Research Institute, Israel; IZMIRAN, Russia; ²ICR&SWC, Tel Aviv University
		Cosmic rays (CR) are an important element of space weather and instrument of space weather forecasting. From this point of view, it is necessary to take into account all factors influencing CR intensity. One of these important factors is the influence on CR intensity an atmospheric electric fields (AEF) during thunderstorms. This is caused by local acceleration (or deceleration, depending on the direction of the AEF and the sign of charged particles) of secondary CR particles (mostly muons and electrons, for CR observations in the low atmosphere or underground). We analysed one minute data on AEF obtained by the ESF-1000 sensor in our observatory on Mt. Hermon, and one minute neutron monitor data corrected on barometric effects and on the effect of snow. While AEF does not influence neutrons, we found significant effects in the observed total neutron intensity and in the intensities of different multiplicities. This is caused mostly by soft negative muons, captured by nuclei of lead (instead of the atom’s electrons) with the formation of mesoatoms. While the cross section of muons relative to strong interactions is very small (the same order as for neutrino), because the captured muon moves about inside the nucleus with very high density, the probability of muon interaction with nucleus is higher than the decay of muon. As result of this interaction the total energy of the rest muon about 100 MeV goes to the excitation of lead nuclei, with emanation of a few neutrons which are detected by the neutron monitor. Therefore, a neutron monitor is an ideal detector for separating positive and negative soft muons (without using a big magnetic system). We obtained results for positively and negatively directed AEF and show existing significant AEF influence on CR intensity, biggest for small multiplicities. We give a theoretical explanation of obtained results.
16	p-poster	Modeling of Magnetic Cloud Expansion
		Vandas, M¹; Romashets, E²
		¹Astronomical Institute, CAS; ²Lonestar College, Houston
		Magnetic clouds are large interplanetary flux ropes. Their stronger, regular, and twisted magnetic fields may cause intense geomagnetic storms when passing around the Earth. We investigate a large set of magnetic cloud observations, namely behaviour of plasma velocity inside clouds, with the aim to specify what velocity measurements can tell us about magnetic cloud configuration in 3D and which models describe them better.
17	p-poster	Mass, Momentum and Energy Transfer Across Transverse Magnetic Barriers through Three-Dimensional Particle-in-Cell Simulations of non-Diamagnetic Plasma Clouds/jets
		Voitcu, G¹; Echim, M²
		¹Institute of Space Science; ²Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
		The propagation of solar wind irregularities (or clouds, jets, blobs, plasmoids) and their interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere is a key aspect of space weather. The study of plasma clouds dynamics in magnetic field configurations typical for the frontside magnetopause and the terrestrial magnetotail plays a fundamental role for understanding the physics of the magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. In this paper we use full-electromagnetic three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations to investigate the interaction of localized plasma clouds/jets with a tangential discontinuity and the transfer of mass, momentum and energy across the discontinuity. We consider here a non-diamagnetic small Larmor radius plasma cloud injected with a finite bulk velocity V0 perpendicular to a background non-uniform magnetic field that increases rapidly over few ion Larmor radii. Spatial and temporal variations of the plasma parameters and electromagnetic field are analyzed and discussed for different values of V0 and for different “strengths” of the magnetic barrier. The simulations reveal the formation of a polarization electric field that sustains the forward motion of the cloud. We also illustrate the adiabatic breaking of the cloud due to the conservation of the first magnetic invariant. When the plasma element has not enough initial velocity, the differential motion of suprathermal electrons creates an additional electric field in the vicinity of the transition region that defocuses the cloud and spread it along the discontinuity surface.
18	p-poster	March 2013 ICMEs and their Geomagnetic Effects
		Maris Muntean, G¹; Besliu-Ionescu, D¹; Mierla, M²
		¹Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy; ²ROB, Brussels
		In order to be able to predict the geomagnetic effects of a CME, one need to better understand the evolution of a geoeffective ICME through the interplanetary space. Our study analyses in detail one month of solar and geomagnetic activity after the first SC24 maximum (February 2012), that is March, 2013. There are two ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections) recorded this month – on 17th and 20th, the first one being correlated with a Halo CME (coronal mass ejection) listed in the Richardson and Cane catalogue. The ICME from the 20th does not appear to have a solar eruptive phenomenon correlated. March 17th is a day of intense geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -132), while March 20th is a day to have registered a substorm (Dst = -39 nT). We focus on this event to thoroughly describe the interaction between solar wind and magnetosphere and comment on the transfer of energy into the magnetosphere. We compute a probability for a geomagnetic storm to occur using a modified Srivastava (2005) regression model.
19	p-poster	New Tools to Study Transient outflows and the Occurrence of Strong Southward IMF at 1AU.
		Rouillard, A¹; Lavraud, B¹; Génot, V¹; Kunkel, V²; Odstrcil, D²
		¹IRAP; ²GMU
		We present a new application ('propagation tool') to track the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) to 1AU. This tool provides access to maps of solar wind outflows from the Sun to 1AU and offers different ways to estimate the location and speed of CMEs and CIRs with time. Another tool ('space-weather tool') allows users to run a magnetically-driven model that simulates the propagation of a magnetic flux rope from the Sun to 1AU and to extract the magnetic field components measured at any probe or planet situated in the inner heliosphere. The tool offers the flexibility to change the amount of magnetic energy injected in the flux rope as well as its orientation in 3-D.
20	e-poster	Geomagnetic Tools for Space Weather Monitoring
		Stolle, C¹; Matzka, J¹; Korte, M¹; Linthe, H-J¹; Park, J¹; Rauberg, J¹
		¹GFZ Potsdam
		Global observations of the geomagnetic field are crucial for monitoring and describing temporal and spatial variations of the Earth’s magnetic field. The main magnetic field defines the location and strengths of many space weather and ionospheric processes, such as the polar and equatorial electrojet. Longterm variations are mainly determined by secular variation that may, e.g., displace the magnetic poles and equator and change the geomagnetic field strength. In contrast, the short term variability of the magnetic field (few days or less) gives a measure for geomagnetic activity, also called disturbed conditions. Geomagnetic space weather events result from temporally enhanced electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere, and its Earth induced counterpart. In this context, reliability and near real time accessibility of geomagnetic data with sufficient global coverage are crucial for meaningful space weather products including alerts. The German Research Centre for Geosciences, GFZ, has responsibilities in at least three areas of high interest for studying the magnetic environment and for formulating actual space weather situations. (1) GFZ runs a global network of 14 magnetic observatories at low and mid latitudes that are partly realized in cooperation with local institutes. These observatories do not only monitor geomagnetic variations, but determine these variations from a well defined and stable baselines. All these observatories are integrated in the INTERMAGNET network, or aim at joining soon. (2) The Niemegk observatory affiliated to GFZ is responsible for the quality and provision of the IAGA indorsed Kp-index reflecting the global magnetic activity state, also in near real time. Both observations and the Kp-index are currently reviewed for being part of the SSA SWE program. (3) ESA delivers the space environment products Total electron content, Field-aligned currents, and Index of equatorial plasma irregularities derived from observations of the Swarm constellation mission. GFZ has largely contributed in developing these products and supports ESA with product quality assurance and data interpretations. These products are valuable indicators for the space environment; its effectiveness for Space Weather would be even enhanced when provided in near real time. This presentation aims at providing a glance on the suite of magnetic data and products that are supported by GFZ, and at describing their relation to Space Weather activities in Europe.
21	p-poster	The main Periodicities of the ULF Geomagnetic Power and their Relationship with the Solar wind and Magnetospheric Electron Fluxes
		Alberti, Tommaso¹; SWICO Collaboration²
		¹Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Fisica, Rende (CS); ²Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Rende (CS) – Italy; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila – Italy; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma – Italy; Dipartimento di Fisica e Ast
		We analyse hourly datasets of geomagnetic micropulsations power in the range of 1-7 mHz (Pc5), solar wind velocity and relativistic electrons (E > 0.6 MeV) in a period lasting 10 months, from January 2008 up to October 2008. Using an Empirical Mode Decomposition we find the dominant modes for each dataset, thus comparing properly filtered time series. We find two different dominant processes, with characteristic time of about 9 and 27 days, for each time series. Time correlations show some lag among the main modes, some of them have been characterized through different physical processes that are involved in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling.
22	p-poster	Space Weather Monitoring by Means of the Polar Cap Magnetic Activity Index PC
		Troshichev, O
		Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
		Space weather monitoring basically rests on data on the solar wind parameters measured outside of the magnetosphere. These parameters are used to derive a hypothetic “coupling function”, which is designed to monitor the solar wind geoefficiency and, correspondingly, the state of magnetosphere (i.e. space weather). A number of the suggested “coupling functions” is over 15 by now, but all of them are not based on any experimental evidences of physical processes determining the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. As a result, none of coupling functions is universal, i.e. suitable for adequate evaluation of the quite different states of magnetosphere affected by varying solar wind. Estimation of the solar wind energy coming into the magnetosphere seems to be more straightforward and reliable way to resolve the problem. In this paper we demonstrate that the PC index, characterizing the polar cap magnetic activity, can be regarded as a reliable proxy of the solar wind energy incoming into the magnetosphere. Indeed, the PC index demonstrates, as a rule, a high correlation (R>0.7) with the interplanetary electric field EKL calculated by solar wind parameters measured on board ACE spacecraft (spaced 1.5 M km apart the Earth in the Lagrange point L1) and reduced to magnetopause. On the other hand, the following experimental results make it clear that the PC index is steadily related to such space weather indicators, as AL and Dst indices: - the substorm onsets are preceded and accompanied in all cases by the PC index growth; - the substorms and storms start if the PC index reaches the threshold value ~ 1.5 mV/m; - the substorm intensity and growth phase duration are determined by the PCgrowth rate; - substorms and storms decay as soon as the PC index firmly falls below 1 mV/m; - the storm length is terminated by the duration of the period, for which PC > 2mV/m; the storm intensity is linearly related to the PC index averaged over the storm time interval; - periodicity of saw-tooth substorms is determined by the duration of the ‘PC growth phase’ and the ‘PC decline phase’; - the substorms occurring under the northward IMF conditions are related to PC ≥ 2 mV/m; - the PC index adequately responds to impulses in the solar wind dynamic pressure. In 2013 the PC index was approved by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy as a new index of magnetic activity. The PC index is calculated on-line by magnetic data from near-pole stations Thule (Greenland) and Vostok (Antarctica) and hence provides the reliable basis for space weather monitoring and nowcasting.
23	p-poster	HELCATS – Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Technique Service
		Davies, J¹; Harrison, R¹; Perry, C¹; Moestl, C²; Rouillard, A³; Bothmer, V⁴; Rodriguez, L⁵; Eastwood, J⁶; Kilpua, E⁷; Gallagher, P⁸; Odstrcil, D⁹
		¹STFC-RAL Space; ²University of Graz; ³Paul Sabatier University; ⁴University of Goettingen; ⁵Royal Observatory of Belgium; ⁶Imperial College London; ⁷University of Helsinki; ⁸Trinity College Dublin; ⁹George Mason University
		Understanding the evolution of the solar wind is fundamental to advancing our knowledge of energy and mass transport in the solar system, rendering it crucial to space weather and its prediction. The advent of truly wide-angle heliospheric imaging has revolutionised the study of solar wind evolution, through enabling direct and continuous observation of both transient (coronal mass ejections: CMEs) and background (stream/co-rotating interaction regions: SIRs/CIRs) solar wind plasma structures as they propagate out to 1 AU and beyond. The recently instigated FP7 Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Technique Service (HELCATS) project capitalises on European expertise in the field of heliospheric imaging, built up over the last decade in particular through lead involvement in NASA’s STEREO mission, whilst also exploiting the vast wealth of long-established European expertise in such areas as solar and coronal imaging as well as the interpretation of in-situ and radio diagnostic measurements of solar wind phenomena. The aims of the HELCATS project are: (1) to catalogue transient (CMEs) and background (SIRs/CIRs) solar wind structures observed in the heliosphere by the UK-led STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (STEREO/HI) instruments, including estimates of their kinematic properties based on a variety of established modelling techniques and the prototyping of other, more speculative, approaches; (2) to verify these kinematic properties, and thereby assess the validity of these modelling techniques, through comparison both with solar source observations and in-situ measurements at multiple points throughout the heliosphere; (3) to assess the potential for initialising advanced numerical models based on the derived kinematic properties of both the transient and background solar wind structures; (4) to assess the complementarity of using radio observations (in particular Type II radio bursts and interplanetary scintillation) to detect and analyse structures in the heliosphere in combination with heliospheric imaging observations. We provide an overview of the space weather science that is being undertaken under the auspices of the HELCATS project, focussing particularly on its relevance to current prediction methodologies.
24	p-poster	SunPy: New Scientific Analysis Capabilities for GOES Observations
		Ryan, D¹; Mumford, S²; Christe, S³; Perez-Suarez, D⁴; Inglis, A⁵; Dominique, M¹
		¹Royal Observatory of Belgium/Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence; ²University of Sheffield; ³NASA GSFC; ⁴South African National Space Agency; ⁵Catholic University of America/NASA GSFC
		The SunPy project is a new open-source software library for solar physics using the Python programming language. As SunPy continues to be developed, it is becoming increasingly useful for scientific analysis by the solar physics community. Sunpy's latest improvement is its capability to use GOES/XRS observations to derive the temperature, emission measure and other thermal properties of solar coronal plasma. The GOES/XRS series has been consistently observing the Sun at soft X-ray wavelengths since the mid-1970's. In that time, it has become the most popular way in which to analyse the thermal solar coronal plasma, particularly in solar flares. Thus this new capability represents a significant step forward in making python and SunPy a viable alternative for all aspects of solar physics analysis.
25	p-poster	Coupling of MHD and PIC Codes for Simulations of the Earth's Magnetoshpere.
		Olshevsky, V¹; Lani, A²; Ho, N-D³; Yalim, M S¹; Lapenta, G¹; Markidis, S⁴
		¹KU Leuven; ²Von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics, Chausse de Waterloo 72, B-1640, Rhode-Saint-Genese, Belgium; ³Space Applications Services NV/SA Leuvensesteenweg 325, 1932 Zaventem, Belgium; ⁴PDC Center for High Performance Computing, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
		We performed multiphysics simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere by coupling magnetohydrodynamic and particle-in-cell solvers. In our simulations, two-dimensional MHD model of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction was created within the COOLFluiD framework, a component-based environment for multi-disciplinary research. Implicit moment particle-in-cell code iPIC3D was used to model the magnetotail region. We have implemented one-way coupling, in which MHD solution provides boundary conditions for the PIC simulation. Our results suggest that joint PIC-MHD simulations are promising for global magnetospheric modeling.
26	p-poster	Anisotropic Cascade and Heating of Solar Wind He++ Jons by Oblique Alfven-Cyclotron Waves
		Maneva, Y¹; Vinas, A²; Moya, P²; Wicks, R²; Poedts, S¹
		¹KU Leuven; ²NASA/GSFC
		We perform 2.5D hybrid simulations to study the importance of obliquely propagating Alfven-cyclotron waves for the heating of minor ions in the solar wind. To demonstrate the preferential heating for the minor ions and the onset of temperature anisotropies for both ion species we start with initially isotropic plasma with equal temperatures for the protons and the minor He++ ions. Next we construct initial broad-band wave spectra to resemble observations of solar wind turbulence at 1 AU. We initialize the simulations with observed ion densities, temperatures and relative drifts, and study the different heating rates resulting from pitch angle scattering and wave-particle interactions between drifting ion populations and parallel or oblique Alfven-cyclotron waves, which propagate along or at an angle with respect to the ambient interplanetary magnetic field. Within the chosen parameter study typical for high beta fast solar wind, the parallel waves appear more efficient in heating the minor ions than the oblique waves. In the course of nonlinear evolution of the system when initial parallel wave spectra is assumed we observe substaintial anisotropic cascade of the magnetic field power spectra towards perpendicular wave numbers. The nature of the anisotropic turbulent cascade depends on the differential streaming between the different ion populations and is affected by the solar wind expansion.
27	p-poster	Extremes in Worldwide Geomagnetic Activity
		Thomson, A¹; Kelly, G¹; Reay, S¹
		¹British Geological Survey
		Geomagnetic storms pose a hazard to many modern technologies. Therefore understanding how severe such storms could be is important to a wide range of space weather data and forecast end-users. Extreme value statistical (EVS) methods are therefore applied to a global set of geomagnetic observatory data to determine the one in 100 and one in 200 year extreme values in the north, east and horizontal field strengths and their time rates-of-change. We use 1-minute digital data from geographically widely distributed observatories with typically a few decades of digital operations. For each observatory the data are carefully quality controlled, with spurious outliers (e.g. data spikes) removed. Individual generalised Pareto distribution functions are then fitted to the tail of each observatory data distribution, above some threshold marking the onset of extreme activity for that location. We discuss the return levels, for the one in 100 and one in 200 year events, with respect to the geographical distribution of the observatories, the proximity to auroral and equatorial electrojets and compare results with a separate EVS study of European-only magnetic observatory data (Thomson, A. W. P., E. B. Dawson, and S. J. Reay (2011), Quantifying extreme behaviour in geomagnetic activity, Space Weather, 9, S10001, doi:10.1029/2011SW000696).
28	p-poster	Preparing the Solar Surface Data: Unresolved Structures in the Magnetic Inversion of the Spectropolarimetric Data
29	p-poster	Sunspot Identification and Classification Capability of the Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer
		Hong, S.; Kim, Y-K.
		RRA Korean Space Weather Center
		We have developed a software system the so-called Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer (ASSA), that makes real-time monitoring and identification of sunspot groups, coronal holes, and filament channels, which are three major solar sources causing the space weather. In this work, we present the ASSA’s sunspot identification/classification performances by analyzing the ASSA sunspot catalog, which was automatically generated by the ASSA from SOHO MDI Continuum and Magnetogram images from September 1996 to January 2011, which fully covers the Solar Cycle 23. For the period, we compared the ASSA Wolf number with the International Sunspot Number and the F10.7 solar radio flux as well. The ASSA Wolf number follows very well the curve of the International Sunspot Number and the variation of the F10.7 solar radio flux. We also investigated the sunspot classification performance and the flare probabilities according to the McIntosh- and Mt. Wilson-classification calculated by the ASSA, and compared them with NOAA's.
30	p-poster	Zero magnetic field as possible risk-factor for cardiovascular system during far space mission
		Gurfinkel, Y.; Vasin, A.; Sasonko, M.
		Scientific Clinical Center
		The prospect of extended space missions, dissemination of life on the planets and their satellites with weak magnetic field or the absence of it makes it important to study the problem of hypomagnetic conditions influence on human health. At present, several of researches have shown the effects of zero magnetic field exposure on human cognitive function. V. N. Binhi, R. M. Sarimov reported that compensation of the geomagnetic field to a level less than 0.4 μT (“zero magnetic field”, or ZMF) affected human cognitive processes. ZMF exposure increased the number of errors.





31	p-poster	Case Study of False Alarms of Geomagnetic Storms
		Leer, K.; Vennerstrom, S.
		DTU Space
		Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of strong geomagnetic storms. False alarms are Earth directed CMEs that do not cause a geomagnetic storm. The main reasons for false alarms are the absence of negative Bz and that the CME missed the Earth in the sense that it didn't show any signatures in solar wind data. In this study we present detailed study of both type of false alarms.