Session - Spacecraft operations and space weather

Dave Pitchford and Richard Horne

Space weather and the space environment are important issues for a spacecraft operator; from cradle - to - grave, the effects are considered and encountered during the design, build and operation of a spacecraft. This session is a coming together of the user and research communities. Space industry participants are encouraged to discuss their experiences of Space Weather and their end-user needs for data and services. The research community is asked to showcase work directed at this important user community. Topics to be covered include: the analysis of significant space weather events; modeling and forecasting to support spacecraft operations; hosted sensors as assets for both the user and research communities; emerging challenges due to innovative technology and mission concepts.

Talks
Thursday November 20, 09:00-13:00, auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Poster Viewing
Thursday November 20, 10:15-11:30, area in front of auditorium Reine Elisabeth.


The numbering of the posters might differ from the numbering on the page with the short overview without abstracts.

Talks

1 Oral 9:00 am Low Energy Electrons (< 200 keV) in the Inner Magnetosphere during Extreme Space Weather Events
      Ganushkina, N
      Finnish Meteorological Institute
      The distribution of low energy electrons, the seed population (10-150 keV), is critically important for radiation belt dynamics. This seed population is further accelerated to MeV energies by various processes. The electron flux at these energies is largely determined by convective and inductive electric fields and varies significantly with substorm activity driven by the solar wind. Presence of low energy electrons in GEO (geostationary) and MEO (medium Earth orbit) orbits mainly between midnight and dawn can cause surface charging, changes in the satellite potential and degradation of satellite surface materials. The injected electrons can also penetrate along the magnetic field lines to low altitudes and affect polar orbiting satellites in LEO (low Earth orbit) orbit at high latitudes. The model which is able to specify the electron flux for all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary, for a given solar wind and IMF input is Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration model (IMPTAM). We present the results of modeling of low energy electrons fluxes for several past extreme space weather events (with Dst < -250 nT) comparing them to the observations on satellites at different orbits. The periods include the years between 2000 and 2007 when POLAR, LANL, GEOTAIL and CLUSTER data are available. The source, transport and loss processes are reviewed with the emphasis to the extreme events.
2 Oral - invited 9:15 am New Charged Particle Measurements and Products from GOES-R
      Rodriguez, J1; Onsager, T2
      1University of Colorado; 2NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
      The NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program has provided continuous, real-time measurements of the near-Earth space environment for decades. In addition to their scientific value, the GOES energetic particle measurements form the basis for a variety of space weather products and services, including the forecasting of elevated energetic particle levels, real-time knowledge of the satellite environment at geostationary orbit, and data to allow post-event analyses when satellite anomalies occur. The GOES satellites have traditionally provided measurements of high-energy electrons, protons, and alpha particles (100s of keV to 100s of MeV). Beginning with the launch of GOES-13 in 2006, the measurement capabilities were expanded to include medium-energy electrons and protons (10s to 100s of keV) with pitch angle resolution. The next generation of GOES satellites, starting with GOES-R in 2016, will fly four new particle instruments that will greatly expand the energy and species coverage over GOES 13-15.  The low-energy Magnetospheric Particle Sensor (MPS-LO) will measure electrons and ions from 30 eV to 30 keV.  The high-energy Magnetospheric Particle Sensor (MPS-HI) will measure electrons and protons from 50 keV to several MeV.  Pitch angles for MPS-LO and MPS-HI fluxes will be derived from fluxgate magnetometer measurements on the same satellite. A moments (density and temperature) and spacecraft charging product will be derived from the MPS measurements.  Solar and Galactic Proton Sensors (SGPS) on each satellite will measure the spectra of 1-500 MeV protons and >500 MeV integral flux in two directions.  From the SGPS channel fluxes, integral fluxes will be derived, which in turn will support NOAA real-time alerts of solar proton events.  Finally, the Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS) will be capable of resolving heavy ion species from beryllium to nickel, as well as helium and hydrogen above 10 MeV/nucleon.  The EHIS measurements will be used to estimate flux spectra as a function of linear energy transfer (LET).
3 Oral 9:30 am Simulated Electron Flux at GEO for the Carrington Event using the USSW Model
      Boynton, R1; Balikhin, M1; Billings, S1
      1University of Sheffield
      The University of Sheffield's SNB^3GEO electron flux model has been operating online since 2012, providing a reliable forecasts with a high prediction efficiency of the next days >800 keV and >2 MeV electron flux. The exemplary forecasting capability of SNB^3GEO have been exploited to estimate evolution of electron flux during Carrington event, the super magnetic storm that took place between 28 August and 4 September 1859. The Carrington event is the most powerful and famous space weather event on record and if such a storm were to take place today, it would cause havoc on our modern technological systems, costing the global economy billions and taking decades to recover. In this study, the solar wind conditions throughout the event are estimated and used to drive the SNB^3GEO electron flux model at GEO. The results show a huge increase in flux during the event, which are discussed along with the implications on the radiation belts.
4 Oral 9:45 am Influence of EMIC Waves on Radiation Belt Dynamics
      Kersten, T1; Horne, R B1; Glauert, S A1; Meredith, N P1
      1British Antarctic Survey
      Modelling variations in the earth’s radiation belts depends on capturing some of the most essential physical processes including particle transport, acceleration and loss. Wave particle interactions with waves of typically a few Hertz, known as Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves, are thought to be a significant source of electron loss at energies greater than about 500keV leading to decay of the radiation belts. To determine how effective EMIC waves are, we have analysed data from the fluxgate magnetometer on the CRRES satellite to calculate bounce averaged pitch angle diffusion rates. The resulting model covers waves in the equatorial region from about L=4.0 up to about L=7.0 for latitudes up to 30° and 5 levels of kp between 12-18MLT. We found that these waves could diffuse electrons into the loss cone very effectively at energies greater than about 2MeV for pitch angles up to about 60°. The diffusion rates were included in the BAS Radiation Belt Model together with lower and upper band chorus waves. Using the model we were able to show that EMIC waves cause a significant reduction in the electron flux for energies greater than about 2MeV for a range of L-shells from L=4.0-7.0 but only for pitch angles lower than 60°. We conclude that EMIC waves play an important role in radiation belt dynamics and therefore should be included in forecasting models.
5 Oral - invited 10:00 am Initial Post‐Flight Results of the Primary Arcing on Solar Cells At LEO (PASCAL) Flight Experiment
      Likar, J
      Lockheed Martin Space Systems
      Initial Post-Flight Results of the Primary Arcing on Solar Cells At LEO (PASCAL) Flight Experiment  Justin J. Likar , Teppei Okumura , Shunsuke Iwai , and Mengu Cho   Recently, attention has been paid to the cumulative operational effects of repeated low power Primary Arcing (PA); a very nice summary is provided by [1]. Round-robin testing had been previously performed at a number of ground test laboratories on a standard selection of Silicon and Multi-Junction (MJ) GaAs space solar cells per methodology summarized in the ISO Standard for ESD Testing of Space Solar Arrays [2].  Ground test results to date have been quite informative suggesting that advanced technology cells, which employ more junctions, are more susceptible to the degrading effects of primary arcs at the cell perimeter.  Such testing and related analytical studies have provided insight into potential mechanisms for PA induced cell degradation while also parameterizing some effects as a function of PA energy, number, and cell type.  The Primary Arc effects on Solar Cells At LEO (PASCAL) flight experiment was included in the Materials Interaction Space Station Experiment 8 (MISSE-8) payload as part of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Platform for Retrievable Experiments in a LEO Space Environment (PRELSE).  The MISSE-8 payload, including PASCAL, was launched aboard STS-134 on 16 May 2011 and deployed via Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) on 20 May 2011.  The experiment was active for approximately two years before being retrieved to the ISS interior on 9 July 2013.  The entire payload was returned to earth at completion of the Space-X3 Commercial Resupply flight, splashing down on 18 May 2014.   PASCAL scientific objectives were many fold:  1. Characterize solar cell degradation as a function of primary arc quantity. 2. Characterize influence of solar cell design on degradation, if observed, due to primary arcs. 3. Characterize solar cell degradation, if observed, as function of primary arc energy. 4. Characterize primary arc waveforms. 5. Identify arc inception voltage for various solar cell designs.  The basic concept of the PASCAL is the miniaturization of the common ground experiment system well described in many publications (see references in [2] for example).  PASCAL includes ten independently controllable solar cells.  Cells have been selected to represent a variety of different solar cell constructions, shapes, technology levels, and cell manufacturers (Tecstar Si, Tecstar MJ GaAs, Emcore ATJM, Emcore ZTJM, Spectrolab UTJ, and Spectrolab XTJ).  Specific cells selected for test have been pulled from Lockheed Martin “flight stock” and as such can be labeled as offering a very good representation of cells used on modern spacecraft programs. Cells include Coverglass, Interconnects (i.e. they are CICs), and various coverglass coatings. PASCAL CICs include encapsulated interconnectors and turnarounds wherefore the only exposed metal exists at the cell perimeter. PASCAL enables selection of individual solar cells to study by changing the status of a number of mechanical relays.  Primary Arc (PA) energy is variable between 1.2 mJ and ~45 mJ noting that a primary arc energy of ~45 mJ is reported as enough energy to cause the degradation of solar cell. Over approximately two years of continuous operation PASCAL has been demonstrated effective in generating repeated primary arcs aboard the ISS.  Results have enabled determination of primary arc inception threshold and arc rate.  On-orbit and on-ground LIV results offer important results with respect to effects of repeated low power primary arcs on cell performance.  Non-destructive and destructive inspection and cell analyses, performing beginning in June 2014 offer additional insights into degradation mechanisms which may become of increased importance with recent trends toward low-thrust (All EP) propulsion and higher power spacecraft.  1. Vayner, B. and Galofaro, J. “Possible Decline in Solar Array Performance Due to Electrostatic Discharges in Orbit.”  Presented at 51st ASM, January 7-10, 2013. 2. “Space Systems – Space Solar Panels – Spacecraft Charging Induced Electrostatic Discharge Test Methods.” ISO-CD-11221, ISO/TC20/SC14.
6 Oral - invited 11:30 am Science and Data for Defining Space Weather Impacts to Satellite Operations
      Green, J1; Rodriguez, J2; Redmon, R3; Guild, T4; Gannon, J1; Olsen, A1
      1Geosynergy, LLC; 2CIRES/NOAA; 3NOAA; 4Aerospace Corporation 
      The particle radiation that surrounds Earth presents an extremely harsh environment that satellites must be designed to withstand and that operators must monitor to ensure continuous service. Building resilient satellites and achieving uninterrupted operations is often challenging because the regular extreme fluctuations in the environment are not well understood and available particle radiation measurements can be difficult to interpret.  To overcome these challenges, we report on an effort to transform long-term measurements into more useful products for both scientific understanding and operations. More specifically, we discuss the transformation of the NOAA GOES and POES particle flux measurements to cleaned phase space densities (PSD) relevant for understanding internal charging effects and radiation belt physics. The benefit of PSD data is that it should remain constant even as the global magnetic field topology changes making it easier to identify true global changes in the radiation belts and the internal charging hazard. Additionally, we discuss the perils of the measurements and efforts to clean the data and make users aware of uncertainties. Lastly, we review measurements of the lower energy particle fluxes and implications for surface charging.
7 Oral - invited 11:45 am Energetic Particle Sensors for Anomaly Attribution and Environmental Specification (CEASE & RHAS)
      Lindstrom, C1; Huston, S2; Johnston, R  W1
      1Air Force Research Labratory; 2Atmospheric And Environmental Research, Inc
      The energetic particle environment is known to cause anomalies on satellites and spacecraft.  Many of these anomalies are minor and can easily be dealt with operationally; however, there are well documented cases that have had significant effects on the mission of the space vehicle.  In addition, the energetic particle environment creates significant constraints on spacecraft design that consequently cause increased mission cost.  A key issue is the design trade space for the system designer and a known concern is the uncertainty in existing space environmental models.  Traditionally, the approach to address this is to use targeted scientific missions to aid in the understanding of the environment and better develop an understanding of a specific environmental variable or variables.  Additionally, a few national class assets such as NOAA’s GOES satellites have been deployed to particularly valuable locations to provide warnings for the global space community.  Clearly, this leads to problems in data scarcity both temporally and spatially in the near earth space environment.  AFRL identified a potential solution to this in the mid-1990s by developing the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor (CEASE).  It consists of multiple sensors based on well-established technology integrated in a small package (~ 4”x4”x4” for CEASE I) that could measure the portions of the energetic environment responsible for most spacecraft anomalies.  Although it could not rival the precision of scientific instruments for specific applications it was intended to be a secondary payload on multiple host satellites for a much larger data network.  The history of CEASE will be briefly reviewed.  This will be followed by an in-depth illustration of recent CEASE measurements from TACSAT-4 that demonstrate its ability to both resolve anomalous degradation in an onboard solar cell experiment and how the data can be used to improve the AP9 climatology model.  This will also be used to pose challenges that still exist to using these types of instruments such as how to get timely and relevant information to the satellite operator.  Finally, the issue of how to improve both the quality and number of energetic particle sensors will be addressed in AFRL’s follow on to CEASE called CEASE RR and the Radiation Hazard Awareness Sensor (RHAS) based on Teledyne microdosimeters.
8 Oral - invited 12:00 pm SKYNET Operations and Space Weather
      Swinburne, B1
      1Airbus Defence and Space, CIS, UK Gov
      Airbus Defence and Space, CIS, UK Gov (formally Paradigm Services) operates a fleet of eight geostationary satellites providing secure communication services to both UK Government and other 3rd party government organisations around the world.  As a responsible operator Airbus D&S spacecraft operations believe it essential for reliable service provision to perform good Space Situational Awareness maintaining an up to date, accurate, space picture, part of which being the monitoring/prediction of the local environment around Airbus D&S space and ground assets.  This paper will discuss current Airbus D&S space weather activities and outline areas where further development/collaboration may be performed in the future.
9 Oral 12:15 pm The AE9/AP9 Next Generation Radiation Specification Models – Progress Report
      Quinn, R1; O'Brien, P2; Johnston, W3; Ginet, G4; Huston, S1
      1AER; 2Aerospace; 3Air Force Research Laboratory; 4MIT Lincoln Labs
      The AE9/AP9 model has now been released to the global satellite design community. Since the release of version 1.0, we have been focused on documenting the model so that it is suitable for consideration as an international standard. We are also working on incorporating new data sources, such as THEMIS, TACSAT-4, and NASA’s Van Allen Probes. Finally, we are scoping out architectural improvements to enable improvements requested by industry: improved stitching between the plasma and radiation models, local time dependence in the plasma model, longitude dependence in the electron radiation model, and solar cycle variation in the low altitude protons. We provide a brief update on the status of the model, plans for the future, and progress on international agreements.
10 Oral 12:30 pm Confronting the AP9/AE9 Radiation Belt Models with Spacecraft Data and other Models
      Heynderickx, D1; Truscott, P2; Evans, H3
      1DH Consultancy; 2Kallisto Consultancy; 3ESA/ESTEC
      Usage of the AP9/AE9 model (now commonly referred to as IRENE) in radiation analysis applications has revealed significant differences with results obtained with older radiation belt models for some orbit types. Consequently, an ESA sponsored activity was started to validate the new model results against other radiation belt models and in situ datasets. In addition, the optimal implementation of the new models in existing ESA software packages and tools was investigated.  A thorough evaluation of the new models has been performed under ESA Contract No 4000108483/13/NL/AK. On the one hand, data from the AZUR/EI-88, SAMPEX/PET, CRRES/MEA, Giove-B/SREM and Integral/IREM were directly compared to model runs (Ax-9 MAX/MIN, UP-8/MAX, PSB97, Ax-9 mean and confidence levels) over the dataset ephemeris. These datasets, with the exception of CRRES/MEA, were not used in the construction of the IRENE models and cover a variety of orbit types. On the other hand, SPENVIS runs were performed using the various models for a series of orbit types (LEO, MEO, GTO, HEO, GEO). The model spectra were compared, and used as inputs for the SPENVIS radiation effects models (TID, TNID, damage equivalent electron fluences, DICTAT).
11 Oral - invited 12:45 pm SpacePy and LanlGeoMag - Software Libraries for Space Science Data Analysis, Modelling and Space Weather Forecasting
      Morley, S1; Henderson, M1; Niehof, J2; W., D3; Larsen, B1
      1Los Alamos National Laboratory; 2University of New Hampshire; 3University of Michigan
      Common to both space weather forecasting and scientific analysis of in-situ data from Earth's magnetosphere are a number of key computational tasks. Two software projects at Los Alamos have been widely adopted for projects ranging from scientific research to science mission operations and space situational awareness applications. These are SpacePy and LanlGeoMag, which are written in Python and C respectively, and both have recently been made available as open-source software on unrestrictive licences. These projects cover: managing data and metadata, running empirical models, converting between time/coordinate systems, calculating adiabatic invariants and much more. We will present an overview of the capabilities of these libraries and give examples of their use in major space weather projects at LANL, such as the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) and magnetic ephemeris calculation for NASA's Van Allen Probes and Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission.

Posters

1   Three Dimensional Radiation Belt Storm Monitoring System Developed by KASI
    Lee, Jaejin1; Kim, Kyung-Chan1; Lee, Jong-gil1; Kim, Yeon-Han1; Choi , Seonghwan1; Park, Young-deuk1
    1Korea Astronomy and Space science Institute
    The radiation belt storm is dramatic changes of charged particle flux which energy is from several hundred keV to ~ MeV in the Earth magnetosphere. This storm is known to be associated with solar wind variation while the detail mechanism is not well understood. The importance of monitoring the radiation belt has been emphasized by GEO satellite operators because a number of spacecraft anomalies have been reported to be caused by the increase of energetic electrons. Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute(KASI) has cooperated with NASA in receiving 1 kbps real-time space weather data from the Van Allen Probes mission (which former name was Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP)) with 7-m parabolic antenna installed in Korea. These space weather data is very useful in predicting space weather condition on GEO satellite orbit. However, because the Van Allen Probes just in-site measure particle and filed on the different site from Korean GEO satellite, we need to calculate global 3-D particle distribution by assuming particles move on the fixed constant L* values. In this presentation, we explain how we develop the 3-D visualization system of the Earth magnetosphere. For the next step, we are now developing a radial diffusion model for predicting radiation storms and these prediction data will be displayed on this system.
2   Development of the Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System (SEAES) at NASA
    Krishnarao, Dhanesh1; Zheng, Yihua2; Maddox, Marlo2; Schiewe , Tyler3
    1American University & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 3Linfield  College & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    We develop and implement a post-anomaly analysis and monitoring tool for NASA satellite operators to understand causes for specific spacecraft anomalies and specify thresholds for future watches and warnings. A hazard quotient showing the ratio of instantaneous to mission averaged likelihood of an anomaly is available for four space weather hazards at geosynchronous orbit (GEO): surface charging, internal charging, single-event effects (SEE) from solar energetic particle events (SEP), and total dose to solar arrays. We use the algorithms and rules developed by OBrien (2009) as a guideline and make modifications to improve accuracy and account for more recent satellite data. In conjunction with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), we will provide hazard quotients in the Space Environment Automated Alerts & Anomaly Analysis Assistant (SEA5), a comprehensive analysis and dissemination system currently under development. In the future, we plan to expand the system to other orbits such as those in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Middle Earth Orbit (MEO), High Earth Orbit (HEO) and those in the interplanetary space.
3   CCMC and SWRC Space Weather Services for NASA Robotic Mission Operators
    Pulkkinen, A1; Kuznetsova, M1; Zheng, Y1; Maddox, M1
    1NASA
    Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA GSFC has been one of the core US space weather activities for more than a decade. While the primary CCMC goals are to facilitate community space weather research and usage of state-of-the-art models as well as research to operations (and operations to research) activities, the more recent Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) activity linked to CCMC is dedicated for providing space weather services for NASA's robotic mission operators. SWRC together with JSC Space Radiation Analysis Group are NASA's space weather services providers for robotic and human exploration, respectively.  In this paper we will review the latest CCMC and SWRC models, tools, data and services that allow addressing NASA's spacecraft operators' needs. The new tools include space weather databases such as Scoreboard, DONKI (Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information) and novel forecasting capacity such as ensemble CME prediction system that has been used in a real-time environment since January 2014. We will also discuss our work on developing detailed understanding of NASA robotic mission operators' space weather needs and review some of the future directions for our services to NASA.
4   The Analysis Results of the Roscosmos Monitoring System Elements Space-Borne Measurements
    Protopopov, G1; Anashin, V1; Kozyukova, O1; Sitnikova, N2
    1Branch of JSC USRC-ISDE; 2JSC ISS 
    The analysis of the flight data is presented in the paper. The flight data had been received by the Roscosmos space radiation exposure on electronic components engineering Monitoring System elements. The analysed data are measurements of TID sensors operating on MNOSFET dosimetry principle. 38 TID sensors have been placed onboard 19 spacecrafts at the circular orbit ~20000 km with inclination ~65 deg. since October 2008. Anomalous dose rate increasing events were detected by the Monitoring System elements. These events were analysed in comparison with ELECTRO and GOES charge particles fluxes and with other space weather characteristics. The analysis results are in agreement with calculations and will be presented in the full paper. Our dose rate data were compared with other similar data, which had been received at GIOVE and Van Allen Prove spacecraft. The calculated and measured dose rate values were compared. Construction of the simplified 3D radiation model of spacecraft, sensor and sensitive element and dose rate calculation were carried out using SPENVIS. Different space models were used. The comparison result and possible causes of difference between experimental and calculated values will be presented in the full paper.
5   Global Model of Low frequency Chorus (fLHR < f < 0.1fce) from Multiple Satellite Observations
    Meredith, N1; Horne, R1; Li, W2; Thorne, R2; Sicard-Piet, A3
    1British Antarctic Survey; 2University of California, Los Angeles; 3ONERA 
    Whistler mode chorus is an important magnetospheric emission, playing a dual role in the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belt. Chorus is typically generated in the equatorial region in the frequency range 0.1-0.8fce, where fce is the local electron gyrofrequency. However, as the waves propagate to higher latitudes, significant wave power can occur at frequencies below 0.1fce. Since this wave power is largely omitted in current radiation belt models we construct a global model of low frequency chorus, fLHR< f<0.1fce, using data from six satellites. We find that low frequency chorus is strongest, with an average intensity of 200 pT^2, in the pre-noon sector during active conditions at mid latitudes (20 <|MLAT|<50 degrees) from 4<L*<8. Such mid-latitude, low frequency chorus wave power will contribute to the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons and should be taken into account in radiation belt models.
6   Development and Validation of the Electron Slot Region Radiation Environment Model
    Sandberg, I1; Daglis, I2; Heynderickx, D3; Truscott, P4; Hands, Alex5; Evans, H6; Nieminen, Petteri7
    1Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens; 2Department of Physics, University of Athens; 3DH Consultancy; 4Kallisto Consultancy; 5University of Surrey; 6ESTEC; 7European Space Research and Technology Centre, ESA
    In this work we present the development of the electron Slot Region Radiation Environment Model (e-SRREM). e-SRREM is a data-based statistical model which has been built on fifteen years of electron flux measurements. The model describes the trapped electron radiation in a region that includes the slot region between the inner and the outer electron radiation belts. The model provides energetic electron fluxes with their uncertainties determined by confidence levels for user-defined mission orbit and duration. The model is provided as a collection of sets of flux histograms and IDL code to construct confidence levels of fluxes over a SPENVIS type trajectory. Comparisons have been performed with the AE8 and the new International Radiation Environment Near Earth  (IRENE) AE9 model, as well as the CRRESELE model developed from the CRRES spacecraft data, analysing the results for a systematic series of circular orbits covering the altitude range of the e-SRREM model.  These comparisons show that e-SRREM predicts consistently higher fluxes compared with AE8 and AE9, and the results appear at times be more consistent with CRRESELE during maximum conditions, or an average of AE9 and CRRESELE.  Comparisons are ongoing with independent datasets from instruments on spacecraft crossing the slot region in highly elliptical  orbits (STRV-SURF POLAR-CEPPAD), as well as GNSS orbits. The model is currently being implemented in SPENVIS.  The e-SRREM model is also being used in an ESA sponsored evaluation study of the AE-9 models; this work is presented in a separate abstract.   This work was supported by ESA/ESTEC Contract AO/1- 6700/11/NL/AT
7   Recent Developments in the BAS Radiation Belt Model
    Glauert, S1; Horne, R1; Meredith, N1
    1British Antarctic Survey
    The relativistic electron flux in the Earth's radiation belts is highly dynamic and has been observed to change by orders of magnitude within a few hours. As these energetic electrons are thought be responsible for internal charging on satellites it is important to understand the processes driving these changes and, ultimately, to develop forecasts of the energetic electron population. The BAS Radiation Belt Model simulates the high energy electron population of the radiation belts and includes the effects of transport of electrons toward or away from the Earth, collisions between the electrons and the atmosphere and interactions between the electrons and electromagnetic waves present in space. The BAS model began providing high energy electron radiation belt forecasts in the EU FP7 project SPACECAST and is now being refined in the recently started SPACESTORM project. Here we present some recent developments of the model and demonstrate the improvements they make to the forecasting.  These developments include the interaction between electrons and very low frequency chorus waves and a new approach to modelling losses of electrons to the magnetopause. The addition to the model of very low frequency chorus changes the balance between the loss and acceleration processes for some locations and energy ranges, improving the modelling results. Extending the model out to the magnetopause naturally reproduces flux drop-out events due to the enhanced radial transport present during disturbed conditions. Including the inward movement of the magnetopause in the model has an additional effect on the results.
8   Tailored Space Weather Products in Support of ESA Missions
    Berghmans, D1; Kruglanski, M2; Andreis, J1; Baeyens, E2; Calders, S2; Chabanski, S2; Devos, A1; Dierckxsens, M2; Hetey, L2; Jannssens, J3; Glover, A4; Magdalenic, J1; Marque, C1; Messios, N2; Rodriguez, L1; Verbeeck, C1; Wauters, L1; Zhukov, A1; Dominique, M1
    1Royal Observatory of Belgium; 2Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; 3STCE-Royal Observatory of Belgium; 4ESA-SSA
    The SSCC (SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre) is the focal point for space weather user support of the ESA Space Situational Awareness Program. Located at the Space Pole premises in Brussels, its activities are gradually expanding as more services become online and users increasingly interact with the SSCC. In this paper we report on two space weather services provided by the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the Belgian Institute of Space Aeronomy,  through the SSCC, in support of critical mission phases of ESA spacecraft.   The ESA cornerstone mission “GAIA” was launched on December 19, 2013. The main space weather risk was linked to potential SEUs (Single Event Upsets) due to energetic solar proton events. The SSCC support was provided during the launch window (16-20 December) and the L2 insertion manoeuvre (6-14 January) and took the form of a daily bulletin describing and forecasting flaring activity and potential for particle storms. A proton storm event did occur on January 6 and the GAIA team was alerted during the rising phase of the event.  A second ad-hoc service was provided in support of the Venus Express Aerobraking campaign during the period (18 May –11 July). Two types of space weather effects were followed: (1) energetic particles that introduce errors in onboard memories and cause background radiation on star trackers, and (2)  the variation of atmospheric density at aerobraking altitude due to enhanced irradiance. The service took again the form of a daily bulletin to the operations team. A dedicated graph was constructed that showed the expected solar corona appearance and irradiance level as seen from the Venus, approximately in quadrature with the Earth.
9   Space Weather, Cosmic Rays, and Satellite Anomalies
    Dorman, L1; Belov, A2; Eroshenko, E2; Eroshenko, E2; Iucci, N3; Levitin, A2; Villoresi, G3; Yanke, V2
    1Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Wearther Center of Tel Aviv University, Israel Space Agency and Golan Research Institute, Israel; IZMIRAN, Russia; 2IZMIRAN; 3Rome University
    Results are presented of the Satellite Anomaly Project, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment. Anomaly data from the USSR and Russian “Kosmos” series satellites are combined into one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluencies of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high altitude orbit satellites ( 5000 events) and low altitude (about 800 events). No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in  behavior. Satellites were divided into several groups according to their orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits, and this should be taken into account when developing anomaly frequency models. The preliminary anomaly frequency models are presented.
10   Radiation Effects on Electronics Measured by CARMEN-1 Onboard the SAC-D Satellite – Comparison with Predictions
    Varotsou, A1; Samaras , A1; Chatry , N1; Lorfèvre , E2; Bezerra , F2
    1TRAD; 2CNES
    The joint US/Argentinean AQUARIUS/SAC-D satellite was launched in June 2011 in a 660 km altitude, 98° inclination circular orbit to map the salinity at the ocean surface. Onboard the spacecraft there is a dedicated experiment under CNES funding, called CARMEN-1 (ChARacterisation and Modelling of the ENvironment). The latter includes the ICARE-NG instrument for studying the radiation effects of space environment on electronic components and three SODAD detectors dedicated to micrometeoroids and micro-orbital debris characterization. The ICARE-NG instrument consists of a spectrometer to measure electrons and protons in space as well as electronic boards with several components under test to study the effects of these particles with regards to Total Ionising Dose (TID) and Single Event Effects (SEE). The combination of in-situ radiation environment and radiation effects measurements allows for a better understanding of physical processes and for an opportunity to validate models and predictions. In addition, the availability of the satellite 3D geometry model led to a more precise evaluation of radiation effects. In this study we have performed multiple comparisons between predicted particle fluxes, TID levels and SEE rates and the respective parameters measured in-flight. Results have been analysed for the mission as a whole as well as for a specific solar particle event (SEP) that took place on March 5, 2012. Similar results obtained from the CARMEN-2 experiment onboard the JASON-2 satellite (1336 km, 66°, launched in 2008) are presented and discussed.
11   The Space Weather Modeling Framework as a Predictor of the Plasma Environment
    Welling, D1; Gombosi, T1; Toth, G1; Liemohn, M1; Glocer, A2
    1University of Michigan; 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), developed at the University of Michigan, has become a key tool for addressing research and operational problems related to space weather.  The flexible framework, through which many independent numerical models can be executed, synchronized, and coupled, yields true sun-to-mud simulations of the space environment.  It has been used to simulate and predict CME evolution and arrival at Earth, terrestrial electric and magnetic fields, and ground-observed geomagnetic induced currents.  Its performance and robustness have made it the first terrestrial model selected for operational use at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.    This presentation explores the SWMF’s ability to produce satellite-specific fluxes at a variety of orbits.  By coupling dedicated models for the global magnetosphere, the ring current, and the radiation belts, simulated fluxes are created self-consistently and span from hundreds of eV in energy to MeV.  This particle range covers the populations most important to spacecraft: particles that cause surface and internal charging.  A variety of storms are simulated to exercise the model, from moderate to severe events.  Simulated fluxes for real spacecraft are compared against data to exhibit the models’ performance.  Fluxes for virtual spacecraft are show to exemplify the spatial and temporal variability of harmful populations across different satellite locations.
12   Derivation of Radial Diffusion Coefficients in the Radiation Belts using IMAGE ULF Wave Measurements
    Dimitrakoudis, S1; Balasis, G1; Papadimitriou, C1; Anastasiadis, A1; Daglis, I A1
    1National Observatory of Athens
    Approximately half of all operational satellites are in orbits that pass through the radiation belts, where they are susceptible to internal and surface charging by energetic electrons. In the interest of risk assessment, it is important to develop reliable models of electron acceleration and propagation in these radiation belts. Although there is as yet no universally accepted dominant mechanism for those effects, a prominent one that has been under consideration since 1965 is adiabatic radial diffusion, generated by fluctuations of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves. In situ measurements of those waves’ power spectral densities would require a large number of satellites operating in different orbits, which is currently prohibitively expensive. As a more practical alternative, measurements from ground-based magnetometers can be continuously taken and then mapped to their equivalent L-shells in the equatorial plane. Here we have used 11 years of dayside ground magnetometer measurements from ten IMAGE stations to derive the electric field diffusion coefficient from L=3.34 to 6.46 and, tentatively, up to L=13.6. We have processed the measurements with four binning methods, as functions of Kp, Dst, solar wind speed and solar wind pressure. Upper and lower quartiles were calculated for all initial values and derived diffusion coefficients, and their mean ratios were found to be lowest when binning with solar wind pressure. This may have implications on future radiation belt modeling, where the choice of geomagnetic indices used in binning can affect the accuracy of simulations and forecasts. Our expansion of calculations to very high L-values shows that a linear fit to the lower L-value data can be safely extrapolated up to L=13.6 under calm geomagnetic conditions, but not during storms.
13   The Highly Miniaturised Radiation Monitor: concept, Design and Space Weather Applications
    Irshad, R1; Gunes-Lasnet, S1; Griffin, D1; Woodward, S1; Bogdanova, Y1; Velagapudi, S  H  B1; Turchetta, R1; Dalenq, J2; Houis, L3; Araujo, H4; Mauroschat, A5; Torres, E5; Menicucci, A5; Daly, E5
    1RAL Space; 2Airbus Defense and Space; 3Thales Alenia Space; 4Imperial College London; 5ESA
    The high energy plasma population, i.e. inside the radiation belts and within solar energetic particle (SEP) events, is extremely damaging to satellite electronics and human health. Therefore monitoring, understanding of physics behind and prediction of space radiation strength is a crucial aspect of space weather research and applications.  In addition, the availability of good quality housekeeping data on the ionizing radiation environment in and around spacecraft systems is recognised as highly desirable for the efficient design and operation of spacecraft. Yet the engineering and economic costs of integrating such sensors into flight systems are a serious barrier to their widespread adoption.   In light of this, the Highly Miniaturised Radiation Monitor (HMRM) has been developed by the Science and Technology Facilities Council and Imperial College London within the framework of an ESA technology development contract. The device is significantly smaller and lighter than current space technology with modest power requirements (1W) meaning that it has negligible impact on the spacecraft’s overall resources. Furthermore, its simple electrical and data interfaces result in minimal integration costs. The HMRM is designed as a real-time radiation monitor with provides additional scientific data sets, such as reconstructed particle spectra of high-energy plasma population. The instrument energy coverage of 35 keV – 6 MeV for electrons and 600 keV – 500 MeV for protons makes the HMRM an ideal instrument to monitor and study the radiation environment of near-Earth space and to be widely used for space weather monitoring and research.   RAL, Airbus Defense and Space, Thales Alenia Space, Imperial College and ESA are currently conducting a study on the operational use of the HMRM monitor on board the Neosat platform. We now present the results of this co-engineering study and report on the intended application of the sensor on spacecraft systems.
14   Development of Magnetospheric and Rapid 1D Shielding Analysis Tools for Simulating Heavy Ions in the SEPEM System
    Truscott, P1; Lei, F2; Heynderickx , D3; Varotsou, A4; Jiggens, P5; Evans, H5; Shea, M6; Smart, D7
    1Kallisto Consultancy; 2RadMod Research; 3DH Consultancy; 4TRAD; 5ESA/ESTEC & Rhea; 5ESA/ESTEC & Rhea; 6CSPAR, University of Alabama at Huntsville; 7US Air Force Research Laboratory
    The Solar Energetic Particle Environment Models (SEPEM) system has been developed by ESA to provide a comprehensive environment to build solar particle models using reference datasets, execute these models to predict particle environments, and analyse the effects of shielding on energy/LET spectra and single event effects (SEE) rates in microelectronics.  Currently the system treats only protons within the interplanetary environment, and the shielding analysis is performed using detailed Monte Carlo Geant4-based tools.  ESA’s ESHIEM (Energetic Solar Heavy Ion Environment Models) project is extending this capability in order to treat all heavier solar ion species, and to allow assessment of magnetospheric shielding in near-Earth orbits as a function of ion species and charge state.  In addition, the physical (material) shielding model is being updated to use more efficient ion shielding analysis rather than very lengthy Monte Carlo techniques.  The ESHIEM Magnetospheric Shielding Model (MSM) is derived from the RCINTUT3 software that calculates rigidity cutoff for Earth-orbiting spacecraft.  MSM extrapolates from an extensive new database of cutoff rigidities for a worldwide grid calculated using Geant4/MAGNETOCOSMICS simulations, and which covers the period 1955 to 2015, as a function also of local time and different magnetospheric conditions.  Access to near-Earth orbits for ion species is also critically dependent upon ion charge states, and previous analyses and models of solar ion charge state as well as ACE data are being used to build accurate distribution functions of ion charge states.  The Ion Rapid 1-D Shielding Simulation Software uses a comprehensive dataset of ion stopping-power results from the PASS model, and nuclear attenuation and stopping models to rapidly predict the ion flux behind multi-layered 1D shields of any material, to an accuracy needed for studying SEE rates in electronics.  This paper will include comparisons of shielding results with inflight observations as well as alternative detailed model predictions.