ESWW11 - Session

Session - Space Climate

Giovanni Lapenta, Kalevi Mursula, Andras Ludmany

While space weather traditionally refers to short-term changes in the heliosphere and their prediction, space climate focuses more on long-term changes, on time scales from several months to millennia.
The long-term evolution of solar magnetic fields and solar magnetic activity modifies the solar radiative and particle emissions, thus affecting the properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field and the near-Earth environment, including the Earth's atmosphere and climate. The dramatic reduction of solar activity during the ongoing solar cycle 24 and the related sudden end of the Modern Grand Maximum of solar activity have given increasing importance to the topics related to space climate. There is evidence for weakening magnetic fields in sunspots, decreasing polar fields and reduction in solar wind density and pressure during the last decennium. As a consequence, geomagnetic activity and magnetic storminess have reduced to more quiet levels during this time. Possible related effects upon the atmosphere and climate are under keen evaluation. This session provides a forum for contributions related to all aspects of space climate, including studies reporting changes in the solar and near-Earth space environment, and their effects in the atmosphere and climate, as well as evaluations of historical datasets upon which such studies are based.

Talks and First Class Posters
Friday November 21, 9:00-13:00, auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Poster Viewing
Friday November 21, 11:00-11:30, area in front of auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Talks and First Class Posters

1	Oral - invited	9:00 am	Long-term evolution of magnetic fields on the Sun.
			Pevtsov, Alexei
			National Solar Observatory
			Magnetic fields are the cornerstone of solar activity. They define the solar eruptive phenomena, facilitate the energy transport through solar atmosphere, and modulate the effects of solar activity on near-Earth environment and throughout the heliosphere. Direct measurements of magnetic fields in sunspots started about a century ago, and routine full disk magnetograms are recorded since mid- 1970th. In addition to the direct measurements, one can construct various proxies of magnetic field based on known relationships between, for example, area of sunspots and their maximum field strength. Using these proxies one can extend the data set of sunspot magnetic field strengths to about 130 years into the past. Recent analysis of these data indicates that sunspot field strengths may vary with the phase of solar cycle, and they also exhibit long-term trends, which were interpreted in the framework of 90-year (Gleisberg) cycle of solar activity. The changes in sunspot's mean field strength observed over the declining phase of cycle 23 and the rising phase of cycle 24 were interpreted as an indication of gradual decline in sunspot activity, perhaps heralding a future grand (Maunder-type) minimum. In this talk, we will provide a review of recent studies of long-term evolution of solar magnetic fields and the interpretation of the observed long-term trends.
2	Oral	9:30 am	What do sunspots tell us about recent and past trends in solar activity ?
			Clette, F¹; Lefèvre, L¹
			¹Royal Observatory of Belgium
			An ongoing end-to-end revision of the fundamental Sunspot Number series, as well as recent announcements of anomalies in the sunspot properties during cycles 23 and 24, prompted various studies of global statistical changes in sunspots. We review the most recent studies of sunspot core magnetic fields and of changing scale-dependent properties in the sunspot population. As a base for such an investigation, we further analyzed the coherency between several primary catalogs: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data, the USAF/SOON catalog (NOAA) and the new STARA catalog, based on narrow-band continuum images from space-based instruments (MDI, HMI). We identified the main sources of incoherences between those catalogs and we show how they can help in correcting, or at least avoiding, imperfections or biases, mostly associated to methodological differences in the sunspot detection and grouping. Combining this catalog-based study with the newly recomputed Sunspot Number and Group Number series, we consider some new implications for the suspected deficit of small spots since cycle 23 and the long-term variability in the average number of spots per group, so far considered a fixed quantity. We also put the current peculiar evolution of cycle 24, with its long flat maximum, in the 400-year perspective provided by the now-updated Sunspot Number series and we conclude on new converging results that exclude exceptional amplitudes for recent solar cycles ("Grand Maximum") in the late 20th century relative to previous centuries.
3	Oral	9:50 am	Centennial Viariations of Near-Earth IMF and Solar Wind Speed
			Lockwood, M¹; Owens, M¹
			¹Reading University
			Annual means of the open solar flux between 1845 and the present, as reconstructed from geomagnetic activity data, can be accurately modelled using a continuity equation and sunspot observations. This modelling can be extended back to the Maunder minimum. From both the reconstructions and observations, the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a monotonic, but non-linear, variation with open solar flux and so also can be predicted. The modelling has been extended to make predictions of the width of the streamer belt width and these agree exceptionally well with a survey of historic images of eclipses. This modelling predicts that the streamer belt was exceptionally wide during the Maunder minimum, suggesting that Earth was immersed in slow solar wind at this time. Variations of reconstructed solar wind speed from geomagnetic data and the recent long-and-low minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 give strong support to this inference.
4	Oral	10:10 am	Space Climate Implications from Substorm Frequency
			Newell, P¹; Gjerloev, J¹; Mitchell, E¹
			¹Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
			The solar wind impacting the Earth varies over a wide range of time scales, driving a corresponding range of geomagnetic activity. Past work has strongly indicated that the rate of merging on the frontside magnetosphere is the most important predictor for magnetospheric activity, especially over a few hours. However, the magnetosphere exhibits variations on other time scales, including UT, seasonal, and solar cycle variations. Much of this geomagnetic variation cannot be reasonably attributed to changes in the solar wind driving—that is, it is not created by the original Russell-McPherron effect or any generalization thereof. In this paper we examine the solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal effects based upon the frequency of substorm onsets, using a data set of 53,000 substormonsets. These were identified through the SuperMAG collaboration and span three decades with continuous coverage. Solar cycle variations include a profound minimum in 2009 (448 substorms) and peak in 2003 (3727). The magnitude of this variation (a factor of 8.3) is not explained through variations in estimators of the frontside merging rate (such as dΦMP/dt), even when the more detailed probability distribution functions are examined. Instead, v, or better, n1/2v2 seems to be implicated in the dramatic difference between active and quiet years, even beyond the role of velocity in modulating merging. Moreover, we find that although most substorms are preceded by flux loading (78.5% are above the mean and 83.8% above median solar wind driving), a high solar wind v is almost as important (68.3% above mean, 74.8% above median). This and other evidence suggest that either v or n1/2v2 (not p) plays a strong secondary role in substorm onset. As for the seasonal and diurnal effects, the elliptical nature of the Earth’s orbit, which is closest to the Sun in January, leads to a larger solar wind driving (measured by Bs, vBs, or dΦMP/dt) in November, as is confirmed by 22 years of solar wind observations. However, substorms peak in October and March and have a UT dependence best explained by whether a conducting path established by solar illumination exists in at least one hemisphere in the region where substorm onsets typically occur.

1	Highlighted poster	10:30 am	Solar and Interplanetary Signatures of a Maunder-Like Grand Solar Minimum Around the Corner - Implications to Near-Earth Space
			Padmanabhan, J¹; Bisoi, S K¹; S, A²
			¹Physical Research Laboratory; ²Electronic Science Department, Pune University
			We show from a study of solar magnetic fields (at latitudes ${geq{pm45^{circ}}}$) and solar wind micro-turbulence in the inner-heliosphere that we are headed towards a long period of little/no sunspot activity similar to the most well-known Maunder minimum from 1645,--,1715. Our observations of a steady decline of solar high latitude magnetic fields combined with the fact that cycle 24 is already past its peak, implies that polar magnetic fields will continue to decline until $sim$2020, the minimum of cycle 24 and will approach zero by $sim$2031 if the trend continues. In addition, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations of solar wind micro-turbulence levels have also shown a steady decline in sync with the declining solar photospheric fields, confirming an impending grand solar minimum. An assessment of its possible impact on terrestrial ionospheric current systems based on the one-to-one correlation of sunspot number and night time F-region maximum electron density reveals that there will be no significant effect on such systems. Our results establish that the period post 2020 will be very useful for undertaking systematic ground based low-frequency radio astronomy to study the high red-shift universe, as the night time ionospheric cutoff will be well below 10 MHz
2	Highlighted poster	10:35 am	Reduced Solar Activity Disguises Global Temperature Rise
			Stauning, P
			Danish Meteorological Institute
			The alarming rise in global temperatures from about 1980 to 2000 gave much concern around possible serious future climate changes that could result from the increasing levels of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere. Quite understandable since the climate appears to be out of control with the significant global temperature increases already seen during the last three decades and with still heavier temperature increases to come in the future according to prognoses, among other, in the recent comprehensive IPCC reports. However, the strong rise in global temperatures faded after year 2000 and was replaced by a rather steady level or even small decreases in the global temperatures from around 2001 to present (2014). This development took away some of the incitement to cut down on human-induced growth in greenhouse gasses. The question is now whether the present fading of the temperature rise is related to the concurrent decrease in solar activity scaled, for instance, by the sunspot numbers. Scientists have linked past climate changes to solar activity. The so-called “Little Ice Age” in the 17’th century was linked to the Maunder minimum in solar activity. Many later works have linked climate changes to changes in solar activity. In author’s earlier analysis a quantitative assessment was made of the relation between solar activity represented by the cycle-average sunspot numbers and the terrestrial climate represented by the global temperatures averaged over the same interval length but delayed by 3 years. In the present communication the anticipated effects of the present developments in solar activity on the recent global temperature changes are analyzed. The solar activity is now at the lowest level seen in the past 100 years and could not go much lower. Thus, the observed global temperatures may soon resume the steady rise observed from around 1980 to 2001. If solar activity starts increasing then the global temperatures may rise even steeper than seen over the past three decades.
3	Highlighted poster	10:40 am	On Non-Universality of Solar-Terrestrial Connections
			Pustilnik, L¹; Yom Din, G²
			¹Tel Aviv University, Israel Space Agency and Golan Research Institute, Israel; University ITMO, Russia; ²Open University & Tel Aviv University, Israel
			The discussion on the principal possibility of a causal chain from solar activity and space weather to the earth weather and agriculture price dynamics continues over 200 years from the first publication of Herschel (1801) up to the current time. We analyze main arguments of the two sides and show that the root of the critics of this possibility lies in the accepted default conception of the universality of the solar-terrestrial connection (STC), like to observed for daily and seasonal variations. This default paradigm of universality of solar-terrestrial connections leads to natural expectation that the effect, if it exist in really, must be observed in any historical period and in any geographical region. We show that this approach is not correct because of the solar-terrestrial connections are generated by different elements of solar activity with different agents of solar magnetic dynamo that have different and non-stable phase patterns, changed in phase and amplitude. We illustrate it by demonstration instability of STC manifestation in parameters of the Earth magnetic activity, cosmic rays and global atmospheric circulation. We remind that the realization of the long causal chain "solar activity/space weather" - "earth weather" - "crops" -"market reaction" may have a place only in specific historical periods and in specific zones where and when the three necessary conditions hold true (see Pustil’nik, Yomdin, 2013, Astrophysical Bulletin, 68-1, 107-124). This limitation leads to one of four possible scenarios of the market reaction, includes absence of any reaction, when at least one from necessary conditions does not fulfield. We show that the critical arguments used for rejecting a principal possibility of the causal connection "solar activity" - Earth agriculture markets" are based on neglecting of non-universality of STC and using for analysis selected periods and location when and where at least one from three necessary conditions does not performed.
4	Highlighted poster	10:45 am	Extracting Long-Term Modulation from Geomagnetic Field Data - Stability and Separation Problem using Empirical Mode Decomposition
			Frühauff, D¹; Glaßmeier, K-H¹
			¹Institut für Geophysik und extraterrestrische Physik Braunschweig
			Geomagnetic field variations presumably provide one of the most historical data archive available to science. Therefore, these time series, whether measured in situ or derived through paleomagnetic techniques or similar, have recently been used to identify long-term oscillations caused by physical phenomena with typical periods of several tens of years and longer. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), a young tool in the field of data analysis, has significantly drawn interest during the last decade and has been used to extract signals of internal origin from geomagnetic indices. Geomagnetic Field Data, as measured on the ground, are certainly subject to different processes. On the one hand, the geomagnetic field itself results from internal dynamo action in the Earth’s core, which is expected to feature long term torsional oscillations and standing waves with expected periods of several tens or even hundreds of years. On the other hand, space weather conditions, such as solar intensity, solar wind speed, and energy flux, influence the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionospheric properties. Large scale planetary oscillations of the atmosphere (Rossby waves) with periods of several days as well as long-term solar variation will affect the dynamic behavior of the atmosphere. The resulting current system certainly produces long and short-term oscillations of the magnetic field that can be measured on the ground. Therefore, magnetic field data and geomagnetic indices can be expected to serve as a proxy both for internal variations of the Earth’s dynamo and for interplanetary space conditions, e.g. solar variations. Distinguishing between internal and external sources through means of data analysis is a difficult task. Lately, Empirical Mode Decomposition, a decomposition tool designed for both amplitude and frequency modulated time series, has been used to identify dynamo related processes in geomagnetic indices. Although the results seem reasonable, EMD does not necessarily solve this separation problem satisfactorily. We carefully discuss the stability of Empirical Mode Decomposition when used in the context of geomagnetic field data under different conditions and address the problem of identifiying internal and external components in the resulting sets of modes.
5	Highlighted poster	10:50 AM	Thermosphere Cooling over the Past 33 Years
			Häggström, Ingemar¹; Ogawa, Y.²; Tetsuo, M.²; Buchert, S.³; Nozawa, S.⁴
			¹EISCAT Scientific Association; ²National Institute of Polar Research; ²National Institute of Polar Research; ³Swedish Institute of Space Phyics; ⁴Nagoya University
			Theoretical models and observations have suggested that the increasing greenhouse gas concentration in the troposphere causes the thermosphere to cool and contract. However, our understanding of the long-term trends in the thermosphere is still very limited, due to a limited amount of available and well-calibrated data. The European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar has gathered data in the polar ionosphere above Tromsø for over 33 years. Using this long-term data set we have estimated the first significant trends of the thermospheric ion temperature at altitudes between 200 and 450 km. The estimated trends indicate a cooling of 10-15 K/decade near the F-region peak (220-380 km altitude), whereas above 400 km the trend is nearly zero or even warming. The height profiles of the observed trends are close to those produced by recent atmospheric General Circulation Models. Our results are the first quantitative confirmation of the simulations and of the qualitative expectations.
5	Highlighted poster	10:55 am	Space Weather Effects on Human Biological Rhythms and Cardiovascular Morbidity
			Breus, T¹; Gurfinkel, Y²
			¹Space Research Institute RAS; ²Scientific Clinical Center JSC “Russian Railways’’
			Breus T. et al. statistically analyzed 6 000,000 Moscow ambulance calls including patients with acute cardiovascular pathology over the period of three years (1979 -1981). It was found that during large planetary magnetic storms caused by ejection of plasma clouds from the Sun, the number of myocardial infarctions increased by 13% from 80 000 calls. Important characteristics of these helio-geomagnetic events are increased negative Bz-component of interplanetary magnetic field, and Pc1 pulsations with a frequency of 0.5 – 2.0 Hz (close to the heart rhythm frequencies). During 14 years (1992-2006) Gurfinkel Yu. et al. collected more than 25000 cases of acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke at seven medical hospitals located in Russia, China and some other countries. It has been used only cases with established date of acute attack of diseases. Undated cases were excluded from the analysis. Average numbers of patients in geomagnetic active days and days with quiet geomagnetic condition were compared. It was shown statistically that during geomagnetic disturbances the frequency of myocardial infarction and brain stroke cases increased on the average by a factor of two in comparison with quiet geomagnetic conditions. These results are very close to results obtained by Stuppel E. (1999) for patients suffering with similar cardiological pathology. Our new hypothesis of possible mechanisms of helio-geomagnetic effects on biological objects based on the noise-induced transition theory and the rhythmic/temporal structure of biological objects and helio-geophysical factors. According to our investigations, the helio-geomagnetic rhythms can be external synchronizers of the biological rhythms by analogy with the solar radiation and temperature variations on premature Earth that had formed the circadian (diurnal) biorhythms. Rhythms coinciding with of 28-day solar rotation and periods its harmonics and sub- harmonics (approx. 14 d., 7 d. 3.5 d.) as well as other very low (micro pulsations) and very high frequencies (11-yr. solar cycle) are likely to reveal themselves on each level of biological systems from cells to population. Geomagnetic storms are responsible for specific and nonspecific adaptive stress reactions in patients with cardiovascular problems. Nonspecific reactions are manifested as an adaptive stress syndrome, namely by increase of heart rate and arterial blood pressure, decreased heart rate variability (heart rhythm stabilization, high blood viscosity and arrhythmia rate, increased secretion of stress hormones and cortisol, and inhibited melatonin production). The specific reaction affects on the vascular tone.

5	Oral	11:30 am	Long Term Response of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere
			Fennell, J¹; Blake, J B¹
			¹The Aerospace Corporation
			We use HEO observations, taken since 1994, to examine the inner magnetosphere’s energetic electron response to both geomagnetic storms and extended quieting periods of solar cycles 23 and 24. We follow the penetration and enhancements of the electrons as a function of L value using HEO3 (and in some parts, HEO1) observations. HEO3 measures electrons of >130, >230, >450, >630, >1500 and >3000 keV and makes four traversals of the L=2-7 Re region each day. HEO1 measures electrons >130, >230, >1500, >4000, >6500, and >8500 keV down to L~4 every day and down to L~2.5 during some intervals. We show the relationship between high altitude and low altitude fluxes on the same L shells and demonstrate that often the High/Low flux ratios are relatively constant, further evidence of a global coherence in the fluxes, irrespective of absolute flux levels. We find that moderate activity often caused enhancements in the <300 keV electron “seed” populations down to L ~3.0 which are not accompanied by enhancements in relativistic electron fluxes for L<5, indicating that the presence of the “seed” populations is not sufficient to lead to post storm enhanced relativistic fluxes. These observations clearly show the long quiet period of the last solar minimum and differences between the maxima for solar cycles 23 and 24.
6	Oral - invited	11:50 am	Evidence for Solar Wind Modulation of Lightning
			Scott, C¹; Harrison, G¹; Owens, M¹; Barnard, L¹
			¹University of Reading
			The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind Vy component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency Arrival Time Difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 days in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 days after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.
7	Oral - invited	12:10 pm	Modeling Efforts Toward Understanding the Energetic Particle Effects in the Atmosphere
			Rozanov, E
			IAC ETHZ and PMOD/WRC
			The Earth’s atmosphere is continuously influenced by different energetic particles. They can be roughly divided into galactic cosmic rays, solar protons, low and high energy electrons according to their sources and energies. The particles are able to ionize neutral atmosphere and the details of the ionization rate distributions in space and time depend on the particle type. The production of chemically active radicals by ions can accelerate ozone destruction in the stratosphere and affect atmospheric dynamics and Earth’s climate. In turn the characteristics of the energetic particles are also modulated by the solar magnetic activity. In this review talk I will discuss all involved mechanisms and their representation in the state-of-art climate models. The simulated atmospheric response to different energetic particles will be illustrated and compared with the observation data. The role of energetic particles will be also considered in a long term perspective for the periods when the solar activity substantially differs from the recent decades.
8	Oral	12:40 pm	Does Europe’s Wind Show Signs of the Solar cycle?
			Čalogović, J¹; Laken, B²; Kapolková, H³
			¹Hvar Observatory - Faculty of Geodesy; ²Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo; ³Charles University in Prague
			Persistent long-timescale links between solar activity and regional climate variability have been suggested by paleoclimatic studies. Despite this, evidence of such links has been difficult to identify in modern climate datasets, which are available for only a few solar cycles. Often, reported relationships have proven to be false-positives. These are common due to the high-variability inherent in climatological data, coupled with insufficient statistical analyses employed by investigators. We have utilized a long (130 yr) series of synoptic conditions from ground-based observations, recorded over central Germany. These data cover more than 12 solar cycles, and may provide verification of a regional solar–climate link in observational datasets, extending from a time when widespread systematic meteorological observations had a limited coverage, to the current-era. The long-timescales of these data enhances our ability to identify low-amplitude signals. Furthermore, its later concurrency with modern-era data enables us to compare our findings to a plethora of relevant and current datasets. We have used robust Monte Carlo methods to identify the variability expected under non-deterministic (random) cases, against which solar cycle related samples are examined, with intriguing results.

More Posters

6	Poster	Manifestations of Interaction between Atmospheric and Space Climate Systems
		Zalizovski, A¹; Yampolski, Y¹; Sopin, A¹; Zanimonskiy, E¹
		¹Institute of Radio Astronomy, National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine
		The impact of meteorological processes near the Earth’s surface upon the upper atmosphere cannot be ignored in conceptual space weather models. This paper will suggest examples of physical interactions between the atmospheric and space climates. The key question about the importance of near-surface energy releases and energy transport from “bottom to top“, i.e. to the geospace, is identification of a transport agent capable of transferring the mechanical (or thermal) energy released in the neutral atmosphere, to the terrestrial plasma. One of the prospective carriers of near-surface disturbances might be associated with the atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) traveling upwards to ionospheric heights and producing the effects known as traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). Evidence is provided by the ionospheric signatures of natural disasters, like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, powerful industrial processes like explosions, large rockets or spacecraft launches; accidental thermal, chemical or radiation releases, and powerful radio emission radiated from the Earth’s surface by the HF heating transmitters. The problem discussed in this paper in more detail is that of projection to geospace altitudes of the atmospheric phenomena of greatest power, cyclones. The original material that the research was started from had been provided by experiments in a region of high meteorological activity, namely the Antarctic Peninsula, where the Ukrainian Antarctic station Akademik Vernadsky is located (UK’s Faraday base till 1996). The data used for the analysis were collected over the thirteen years. It was detected the geomagnetic field variations produced by modulation of the electrodynamic parameters of the ionospheric dynamo region by atmospheric gravity waves (AGW). The magnetically conjugate region of Akademik Vernadsky station lies not far from the US East coast. Simultaneous records of magnetic and meteorological measurements were conducted in the Boston area, for comparison with the Antarctic data. The comparison was done for events that occurred on magnetically quiet days in the Northern hemisphere. The results of cross-analysis of the magnetic field variations in Antarctica and in New England (upon passage of a cyclone in the South) demonstrate a high degree of statistical relation. It can therefore be stated that powerful meteorological processes are projected to geospace not only directly above their location but also to the other hemisphere (at least, in the vicinity of the conjugate point, with the disturbance traveling along the appropriate L-shell). It was also found that the probability of occurrence of sporadic plasma structures in the ionospheric E and F layers above cyclones and atmospheric fronts is increased. All meteo-effects are observed mostly in the winter time, and inside the ozone hole area in spring. The ozone layer was revealed to play the role of a kind of screen impeding vertical propagation of AGWs. As a result of numerical simulations, it was shown that the conditions for vertical propagation of AGWs in the middle and upper atmosphere are more favourable between May and September (that is austral winter). It was also found that the conditions for AGW to propagate in the middle atmosphere through the ozone hole remain quite good in the spring as well. By using the multiposition GNSS technique the impact of cyclone activity on the ionospheric disturbances is demonstrated on example of Kyrill extratropical storm that acted over Europe.
8	Poster	Forthcoming Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age
		Abdussamatov, H
		Pulkovo Observatory
		Cyclical variation of the TSI absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy emission into space over the time interval which is controlled by the thermal inertia of the Ocean. Long-term deviation of the average annual energy balance of the Earth from the equilibrium state together with the subsequent feedback effects dictates a corresponding change the Earth's energy state and, hence, an upcoming climate variation and its amplitude, with account for the forecasted quasi-bicentennial variations of the TSI. Since 1990 a decrease in both the TSI and the portion of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth has been observed. Since the Sun is in the quasi-bicentennial phase of decline, an average annual decrease rate of the absolute value of TSI from the 22nd cycle to the 23rd and 24th cycles is increasing. The Earth will continue to have a negative average annual energy balance in the future solar cycles 25-28 because the Sun is moving to the Grand Minimum. This will lead to the beginning of the epoch of the new Little Ice Age after the maximum phase of the cycle 24 approximately since the second half of 2014. The subsequent increase of the Bond albedo and decrease in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to cooling will lead to an additional reduction of the absorbed portion of solar energy and reduce the influence of the greenhouse effect. The start of the Grand Minimum of TSI is anticipated approximately in cycle 27±1 in 2043±11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age (of the Maunder Minimum type) in the past 7,500 years approximately in 2060±11, with possible duration of 45-65 years. Stabilization of both the temperature and the Ocean level for the past 17 years are the result of TSI fall since 1990 and a sign of the upcoming beginning Grand Minimum of TSI approximately in 2043±11.
9	Poster	Space Weather Factors and Characteristics of the Reaction to them the Cardiovascular System of Healthy Young Adults.
		Breus, T¹; Zenchenko, T¹; Grigoriev, P¹
		¹Space Research Institute RAS
		At present there is experimental evidence that the degree of sensitivity of the cardiovascular system in human to the factors of space weather increases with latitude of residence, age of the volunteers, state of their health (the presence of diseases), as well as the current average level of geomagnetic activity. The objective of this study was to assess the degree of manifestation of space weather biological effects, when the values of all three of these factors are minimal. The daily blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) in 63 young (19-21 years) healthy university students in city Simferopol (44 ° 56 'N, 34 ° 6'E) were monitored. Observations were made in the morning and evening for 50-100 days and for four seasons - 2008 - 2009. The following geophysical indices: RF10.7, ULF-index ground (Tgr), ULF magnetospheric (Tgeo), Kp, Ap, and the velocity (V) and density (N) of the solar wind were selected for the analysis of possible influence of space weather. Methods of analysis - cross-correlation analysis (calculation of rank correlation coefficient in the range of time shifts from -1 to 3 days), analysis of variance and regression analysis were used. Level of statistical significance was selected as p <0.05. Average values of GMA in terms of summary Kp-index during these periods ranged from 16 to 5, i.e. observation period was characterized by medium-and low-level of the GMA. Conclusion: In a group of young healthy individuals living in southern latitudes, which were investigated in a period of relatively low levels of GMA, on average 25% of participants found to be sensitive to variations of space weather. In those cases where the BP showed a dependence on space weather factors, the difference of mean values (medians) of two sample distributions (in BP values observed at high and low levels of GMA) was 50% (in average - 30%) of magnitude of the observed individual variations in this physiological parameters. Geomagnetic Kp and Ap indexes, the ground ULF-index (Tgr) are equivalent in terms of estimating the percentage of healthy people sensitive to variations of space weather. These three indices are the most biotropic. The lowest percentage of significant correlation refers to parameters RF10.7 and V (12-13%). Thus, even in geomagnetically quiet period at medium-southern latitudes the reaction of physiological parameters of healthy individuals on the variations of space weather can be stably observed.
10	Poster	The Association between Space Weather Conditions and the Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients with Diabetes and the Metabolic Syndrome
		Vencloviene, J¹; Babarskiene, R²; Kiznys, D¹
		¹Vytautas Magnus University; ²Department of Cardiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences
		Some evidence indicates the effect of space storms on the human cardiovascular system. Hyperglycemia adversely affects cardiovascular variables that are also adversely affected by increased geomagnetic activity - blood coagulation, platelet aggregation, blood pressure, and heart rate variability. It is likely that geomagnetic storms (GS) would have a stronger negative impact on patients with glucose intolerance – diabetes mellitus (DM), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and the metabolic syndrome (MS). We analyzed the data of 1,548 randomly selected patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who were admitted to the Hospital of the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (Kaunas city) during 2000-2003 – the years of the maximum of the 23rd Solar cycle. We evaluated the associations of GS, (detected if Ap ≥30), solar proton events (SPEs), interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICME), and solar wind speed (SWS) ≥600km/s with the risk of hospitalization for ACS in patients with DM and MS, and the risk of IGT during hospitalization for ACS. We assessed the risk during days of the aforementioned events, on 1-2 days before and after their occurrence, and also during days of extreme space weather events – very strong solar flares, SPE, and ICME. The logistic regression was used, and the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used as the estimate of the risk. We applied multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the association between the aforementioned patients’ characteristics and space weather variables and their interactions. During days when the mean value of SWS was ≥600 km/s, the ratio of hospitalizations for ACS of DM/non diabetic patients increased by 1.95 times (OR=1.95, 95% CI 1.36-2.79), compared to days without any of these events and 2 days before or after. The increased risk of hospitalization in DM patients was observed during GS days (OR=1.54 (1.05-2.24)) - especially during GS lasting >1 day (OR=1.71 (1.14-2.56)), on the days between the onset of SPE and solar flare associated with these SPE, and on days between two SPEs (occurring with a 1-day interval). The final multivariate model included days of SWS ≥600 km/s and 1-2 days after (adjusted OR=1.40 (1.01-1.93)), the interaction of this variable with GS lasting more than 1 day (adjusted OR=2.31 (1.28-4.17)), and the days between the onset of SPE and solar flare or the days between two next SPEs (adjusted OR=2.72 (1.09-6.83)). During days of SWS ≥600km/s and 1-2 days before, and during days of GS and 1-2 days before or after GS, the risk of ACS in patients with MS significant increased by over 1.6 times. The final multivariate model for the risk in patients with MS included the day of the GS environment (adjusted OR=1.31 (1.00-1.73)) and the its interaction with SWS ≥600 km/s and 1-2 before (adjusted OR=2.16 (1.39-3.35)). The risk of IGT was by >2 times higher for hospital admissions on days of extreme space weather events, and by >1.4 times higher on days with the GS environment and 1-2 days before ICME. The multivariate models included days of extreme space weather events, GS and 1-2 days prior-after, and its interaction with 1-2 days before ICME. These findings suggest that human cardiovascular system was affected by the following factors (except for GS): high SWS and space weather conditions prior to SPE and interplanetary CME. The effect of high SWS may be explain by its influence on the intensity of Pc4-Pc5 pulsations, on the ionosphere-earth current density in the global electric circuit (GEC), and, possibly, on low-frequency fluctuations in the atmosphere. Solar disturbances create variations in the Schumann resonance (SR) band by affecting the ionosphere and GEC. Cherry (2002, Nat Hazards 26(3):279–331) stated that the SR signal is a plausible biophysical mechanism to link the solar-GMA level to the biological and human health effect, as the alpha waves during human brain activity (8-13 Hz) lie in the same frequency range as the first two modes of SR. It is possible that high SWS, GS, and space weather conditions before or after these events may affect the SR parameters, and herewith human health.
11	Poster	CR and other Space Weather Factors Influenced on the Earth's Climate
		Dorman, L
		Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Wearther Center of Tel Aviv University, Israel Space Agency and Golan Research Institute, Israel; IZMIRAN, Russia
		It is obvious now that according to data from the past on big variations of planetary surface temperature on scales of many millions and thousands of years, the Earth’s global climate change is determined mostly by space factors, including: the moving of the Solar system around the center of our galaxy, the crossing of galactic arms and molecular dust clouds, nearby supernova and supernova remnants. Another important space factor is the cyclic variations of solar activity and the solar wind (mostly on the scale of hundreds of years and decades). The effects of space factors on the Earth’s climate are realized mostly through cosmic rays (CR) and space dust influencing the formation of clouds, thereby controlling the total energy input from the Sun into the Earth’s atmosphere. The propagation and modulation of galactic CR (generated mostly during supernova explosions and in supernova remnants in our galaxy) in the heliosphere are determined by their interactions with magnetic fields frozen in the solar wind and in coronal mass ejections (CME), which are accompanied by interplanetary shock waves (producing big magnetic storms during their interactions with the Earth’s magnetosphere). The most difficult problem in monitoring and forecasting the modulation of galactic CR in the heliosphere is that the CR intensity in some 4D space-time point is determined not by the level of solar activity at the time of observations and electro-magnetic conditions in this 4D-point, but rather by electromagnetic conditions in the whole heliosphere. These conditions in the whole heliosphere are determined by the development of solar activity over the course of many months before the time-point of observations. This is the main cause of the so-called hysteresis phenomenon in connection with galactic CR – solar activity. On the other hand, detailed investigations of this phenomenon give the important possibility to estimate conditions in and the dimension of the heliosphere. To solve the problem described above of CR modulation in the heliosphere, we considered as the first step the behavior of high energy particles (more than several GeV, for which the diffusion time of propagation in the heliosphere is very small in compared to the characteristic time of modulation), on the basis of neutron monitor data in the frame of convection diffusion theory, then taking into account drift effects. For low energy galactic CR detected on satellites and space probes, we also need to take into account the additional time lag caused by diffusion in the heliosphere. We then consider the problem of CR modulation forecasting for several months and years ahead, which gives the possibility to forecast some part of the global climate change caused by CR.
12	Poster	Geomagnetic Storm, Solar Wind and Stream Interaction Region Influence to Cadiovascular System
		Kiznys, D¹; Venclovienė, J¹; Babarskienė, R²
		¹Vytautas Magnus University; ²Lithuanian University of Health Sciences
		Recent research shows that not only geomagnetic storms, but also other heliophysical indicators affect human health. The main goal of this research is to evaluate geomagnetic storms (GS), solar wind velocity (SW), and flow of stream interaction regions (SIR) in the formation of influence patients for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) the health status. In research we used daily heliophysical data from 2001 till 2003 (Solar activity period). The data of 1391 patients, who were hospitalized at the Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, were used. Data analysis was performed using multivariate logistic regression, binary indicators of the health of the patient using the response factors - categorizes heliophysical indicators. The analysis showed that GS leads to a higher risk for women’s. Among women’s, the risk of hyperglycemia was more than 2 (OR = 2.12 95% CI 1.05-4.29) times bigger also junction days between the two GS – over 5 (OR = 5.07 95% CI 1.58-6.22) times. Women‘s with coronary artery stenosis (CAS) in 1-2 days before GS approached almost 2.5 (OR = 2.49 95% CI 1.24-4.99) times more often. Strong solar winds have increased risk of ACS among patients with arterial hypertension and hyperglycemia for women's (OR = 2.16 95% CI 1.22-3.82). Before (OR = 1.83 95% CI 1.01-3.34) and after (OR = 1.80 95% CI 1.00-3.23) SIR events risk in for women's hyperglycemia were more than 1,8 times higher and the risk of atrial fibrillation in women interaction flow was 4 (OR = 4.17, 95% 1.09-15.99) times higher. Men's older than 65 years have an increased risk of ACS, more than 1.5 times (OR = 1.56 95% CI 1.01-2.40) during high SW. 1-2 days after SIR men's approached more often (OR = 1.78 95% CI 1.00 to 3.17). In SIR days people who smoke approached more often (OR = 1.65 95% CI 1.01-2.67) and an increased risk of tachycardia were for men (OR = 2.46 95% CI 1.08-5.61). The last factor is also associated with a higher risk because the 1-2 days before SIR event the number of patients are higher (OR = 1.84 95% CI 1.03-3.27).
13	Poster	Possible Effects of Geomagnetic Storms – Substorms on Acute Coronary Syndroms (ACS) during the Solar cycle 23.
		Katsavrias, C¹; Preka-Papadema, P¹; Mousas, X¹; Apostolou, T²; Hillaris, A¹
		¹University of Athens; ²St. Panteleimon General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus)
		The effects of geomagnetic storms on the human technological applications on geospace are well known. During the last 25 years, many studies concerning the possible influence on the human health were published. Increase of the Acute Coronary Syn¬dromes and disorders of the Cardiac Rhythm during or after the geomagnetic storms’ time interval have been reported. In this study, we research the problem in Greece, focusing on cases with Acute Coronary Syn¬dromes (ACS), hospitalized in the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nikea (Piraeus, Greece), for the time interval 1997-2007 (solar cycle 23). Increase of ACS cases is observed during the periods with increase Helio-geomagnetic activity mainly at the recovery phase of storms.
14	Poster	Different Sun-Earth energy coupling between different solar cycles
		Yamauchi, M¹; Brändström, U¹; Eliasson, L¹
		¹Swedish Institute of Space Physics
		Relation between the geomagnetic activity (such as Kp index and AL index) and solar input (such as the sunspot numbers (SSN) and solar wind parameters) are compared between solar cycle 24 and the previous solar cycles. In three-months averaged bases, (1) geomagnetic activity for given SSN is quantitatively lower during solar cycles with small amplitudes than during solar cycles with large amplitudes; (2) the similar difference is found between the solar wind velocity and geomagnetic activity between the current solar cycle #24 and previous solar cycle. Furthermore, (3) it turned out to be possible to reconstruct Kp from the monthly SSN during solar cycles with large amplitudes, by dividing each solar cycle into different phases. The result suggests that, to reconstruct the past solar condition from SSN and geomagnetic activity, we should consider the strength of the solar cycle as an additional parameter. Acknowledgement: The sunspot numbers are provided by Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Kp is an official IAGA endorsed index that is provided by GFZ, Adolf-Schmidt-Observatory Niemegk, Germany. AE hourly values are provided by World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto. Solar wind and the other data are provided by NASA/GSFC Space Physics Data Facility through OMNIWeb website.
15	Poster	The relationship of hazardous space weather conditions and the risk of emergency hospital admissions for myocardial infarction during different stages of Solar activity
		Antanaitiene, Jolanta¹; Vencloviene, Jone¹; Babarskiene, Ruta²
		¹Vytautas Magnus University; ²Lithuanian University of Health Sciences
		Background and Aims: There is evidence indicating that space weather has effects on the human cardio-vascular system. A number of studies show effects of space weather condition for increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, number of hospitalizations for acute MI, blood pressure, platelet aggregation and blood coagulation, and decreased heart rate variability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between space geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and X- class solar flare and the risk of emergency hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (MI) separately during declining (2004-2006) and rising (2010-2012) phases of solar activity. Data and Methods: The study was conducted in Kaunas city (geomagnetic latitude 52.38 N) from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012. The data on hospital admissions for MI were obtained from the computer database of Lithuanian University of Health sciences. We used the daily number of all emergency admissions for first-onset myocardial infarction (code I21). During 2004-2006, 2,889 patients were admitted for acute MI, and during 2010-2012, the number of such patients was 3,125. Daily Ap indexes were used as a measure of the level of geomagnetic activity (GMA). As a measure of solar proton flux, we use the daily proton >10 MeV flux which was downloaded from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) OMNIWeb data base. The effects of space weather were analyzed separately for 2004-2006 (the declining phase of solar cycle 23) and 2010-2012 (the rising phase of solar cycle 24). We evaluated the associations between space weather conditions and the daily number of emergency admissions for MI by Poisson regression, controlling for seasonal variation and weekdays. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 19 software. Results: During 2010-2012, there were more days with quiet GMA levels (69.5%) and fewer days with stormy GMA (2.8% days), a major GS occurred on 3 days, and no severe GS occurred; for comparison, during the period of 2004-2006, quiet GMA was on 49.5% of days (p<0.01), GS – on 6.1% of days, a major GS occurred on 18 days, and a severe GS – on 7 days. After adjustment for month and days of the week, during 2004-2006, an increase in the risk of hospital admission for MI by 17% was observed during 1-2 days before GS. During 2010-2012, an increase in the risk of hospital admissions for MI was observed during GS by 18%, 1-2 days after GS (by 21%, p<0.05), and during days with SPE or X class solar flares that did not cause GS (by 29%, p<0.05). During 2004-2006 and 2010-2012, the strongest adverse effect on the risk of hospital admissions for acute MI was observed on days of GS occurring in conjunction with SPE during the day of admission respectively (RR=1.34 95% CI 1.06-1.70 and RR=1.06 95% CI 0.70-1.60); 1-2 days after GS (respectively RR=1.34 95% CI 1.04-1.73 and RR=1.05 95% CI 0.77-1.44) and 1-2 days before GS concomitant with SPE (respectively RR=1.76 95% CI 1.28-2.42 and RR=1.05 95% CI 0.72-1.54). Conclusions: The effect of GS depended on the GS driven and the GS composition during the studied period. These findings suggest that the effect of hazardous space weather conditions on human health depends on the strength of space storm during the investigated period.
16	Poster	Magnetic Flux Density in the Inner and Outer Heliosphere
		Virtanen, I¹; Mursula, K¹
		¹ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Physics, University of Oulu
		The flux density (the normalized radial component) of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) has recently been estimated in different methods. Using the modulus of the radial HMF component when calculating the average flux makes the flux values increase with distance, a situation now called the flux excess problem. This is mainly due to the field fluctuations whose relative significance increases for weak fields of the far heliosphere. The flux excess problem can be largely avoided by assuming that the HMF is oriented along the Parker spiral and by removing the perpendicular fluctuations. Thereafter the fluxes observed by different probes at different radial or latitudinal locations are in a good agreement. Naturally, fluctuations along the spiral remain but have only a minor effect on flux variation. We also study the fluctuations in more detail and find that the dominant period of fluctuations varies with solar cycle phase and is different in fast and slow solar wind.
17	Poster	Hourly Monthly σ(foF2) of IRI95 (URSI Coefficients) for European Stations
		Villanueva, L¹; Udias, A¹
		¹Universidad Complutense de Madrid
		The very-well known COSPAR/URSI International Reference Ionosphere, IRI Model is the key Reference for any comparison not only of new Models of the parameters of the Ionosphere but important Validations that have been done at different epochs and regions. It is based on Experimental data, and it is annually reviewed since 1999. After IRI versions IRI90 and IRI95, there have been released IRI Versions IRI2001, IRI2007, and IRI2011. Even when most of the research is related to shorter time scales nowadays, the initial interest on the Hourly Monthly median values is of great importance, and the most important parameter is the critical frequency for F2 layer or foF2. The climatologic initial purpose is of crucial importance when there is a planning work for future High Frequency (HF) communications, and it is valuable to have good predictions for such a time scale. HF radio is important in inaccessible places as the Jungle in South America, or in any place where it happens a catastrophic event, mainly because antennas of other kind of Communications can fall down, as it happened in the Earthquakes of Chile, Haiti and Japan, that occurred some years ago. The different IRI versions have the so-called URSI Coefficients considered since 1984, besides the old CCIR standard Coefficients based on more than three Solar Cycles and we can use them for climatological predictions of HF Radio links so it is valuable to validate them using real data of ionospheric stations and know its goodness and limitations. They were also considered by the Working Group 3 during the validation of the Single Station Models (SSM) in Europe during the EU COST_238 Program. The summary results were published by Alberca et al. (1998), we used the IRI-95 Program with URSI coefficients. We now present the intermediary results of the Standard Deviation σ(foF2) using IRI95 (URSI Coefficients) and foF2 Hourly Monthly Median for 20 European Ionospheric Stations, organized in four separate Longitude regions, 10C or 15C apart, from -5C to 65C East, and Latitudes ranging around 40o to 70o North. The Means of the Hourly Standard Deviation varies around 0,4 to 1,2 MHz with irregular forms. The most interesting results are the Hourly Monthly Standard Deviations showing a very clear diurnal and seasonal variation between a minimum around 0,2-0,3 MHz and a maximum around 1,4-1,8 MHz, the biggest values are observed in the daily hours in equinoxes and biggest in the North-East part of Europe. Acknowledgements: To Dr. D. Bilitza and Dr. I. Stanislawska for programs availability. Special thanks to all members from WG3 of COST238 (1997) and to every one of the European Observatories for data availability.
18	Poster	Open Magnetic Flux of the Sun as Determined from Interplanetary Measurements
		Erdos, G¹; Balogh, A²
		¹Wigner RPC; ²Imperial College, London
		The open magnetic flux of the sun is an important parameter of the solar cycle. Although the magnetic field on the source surface is routinely determined form photospheric magnetic field measurements, that process involves model calculations with assumptions not fully justified . Therefore, interplanetary observations of the open magnetic flux is also of great importance. We investigate the evolution of the open magnetic flux during solar wind propagation, motivated by the comparison of the interplanetary magnetic field to source surface model fields. The impact of magnetic field fluctuations and plasma compressions on the open magnetic flux is discussed. We argue that careful corrections for the effects above provides useful information for the total open solar magnetic flux, even from single spacecraft observation. We determine the time profile of the open magnetic flux from interplanetary measurements, covering four solar cycles. The peculiarities connected to cycle 24 are discussed.
19	Poster	Estimations of Solar Activity Influence on Conductivity Profiles, Red Sprites and Minor Constituents in Middle Atmosphere
		Tonev, P¹; Velinov, P I Y¹
		¹Institute for Space Research & Technology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
		It has been suggested recently that red sprites which typically occur above large thunderstorms at night, may considerably influence the minor constituents in strato/mesosphere on regional or even global scales, due to chemical effects by the sprite streamers: these last can influence the balance of NOx, ozone, etc. The global rate of sprites is estimated to be 1 - 3 per minute, therefore, they may be an important factor in the middle atmosphere chemistry on regional or even global scales. The initiation and development of sprites is sensitive to the atmospheric conductivity which is a characteristic of large variability – the nighttime conductivity at sprite altitudes is created essentially by the galactic cosmic ray flux which is modulated by solar activity and different solar events. Thus, sprites, if their global rate is big enough, may realize a link between solar activity and strato/mesosphere. We consider differences in sprite initiation and development at middle latitudes by solar minimum and solar maximum, as well as during a solar proton events and during Forbush decreases. By solar minimum the ambient nighttime conductivity below 70 km is up to several tens of percent higher than in solar maximum, due to the reverse dependence of the cosmic ray flux by solar activity. This is the well known 11-year solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays. Since the sprite producing electric fields are screened more effectively by larger conductivity, a lower global rate of sprites is expected by solar minimum than by solar maximum. Similarly, during Forbush decrease a small increase of the global rate of sprites is expected. Finally, during a strong proton event a large relative increase (of one order of magnitude or even more) of the ambient conductivity is realized. In this case the electric fields responsible for sprite generation will be much larger, and their further development will be limited. This dependence can be verified by continuous observation of sprites. The variations of the global sprite rate during the 11-year solar cycle show that the higher solar activity (and proton events, in particular) can influence the density of minor constituents, and atmospheric chemistry, at all. This issue can be important in explaining the linking meteorological processes to solar driven variability.