Topical Discussion Meeting - Assessment of ionospheric prediction capabilities: challenges in data-model comparisons

Ioanna Tsagouri (National Observatory of Athens); Ja Soon Shim (CUA/NASA GSFC); Ludger Scherliess (Utah State University); Endawoke Yizengaw (Boston College); Matthew Angling (University of Birmingham)
Friday 01/12, 15:00 - 16:15, Mercator

The Earth’s ionosphere affects the reliable performance of a variety of technological systems that operate through or within the system, making the accurate modeling of the 3-D electron density in special temporal and spatial scales a critical requirement for the design and operation of the systems. At the same time, the ionosphere/thermosphere research is increasingly relying on numerical simulations. In this respect, the ionospheric prediction models became to be powerful tools for both scientific and operational applications and the assessment of their performance turned to be a high priority, but also a challenging task for the research community. Among others, main challenges to be addressed include the definition of metrics that address specific user needs, while keep track of progress in the scientific understanding and the assessment of the uncertainties that accompany model predictions and observations for fair comparison tests. In this framework, we plan to discuss current approaches in addressing the challenges within international efforts with the focus on the predictions of ionospheric plasma density during geomagnetic storms. Disturbances into consideration apply to TEC, F2-layer characteristics (NmF2/foF2 and hmF2), as well as to ionospheric scintillation.