Topical Discussion Meeting - Advance Predictions of Solar Wind Conditions at L1: Quantifying Performance

M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC); Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven); Matthew J West (ROB); Barbara Thompson (NASA GSFC); Christian Moestl (Space Research Centre Graz); Neel Savani (UMBC/NASA GSFC)
Tuesday 28/11, 17:15 - 18:30, Ridderzaal

Accurate prediction of solar wind conditions at L1 are necessary for long lead-time forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Not only is the arrival time of high speed streams and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at L1 critical, but also other quantities, such as IMF Bz and CME velocity of arrival. Model validation with appropriate metrics allows the community to quantify advancements in predictive capabilities and science understanding. How successfully can various models or techniques predict solar wind conditions at L1? In what aspects do the models perform well, and where do the models need improvement? The quantification of uncertainties in model inputs such as magnetograms and 3D CME kinematics in the corona also become important to consider.

This topical discussion meeting will open with a short summary of the efforts of three working teams from the "International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment” facilitated by the CCMC: CME kinematics and topology, CME arrival time and impact, and IMF Bz at L1. This will be followed by an open discussion on best practices for quantifying model performance for these topics—including observations, model inputs, and metrics.

Agenda & materials

Minutes of the TDM
pdf version