Fifteenth European Space Weather Week
November 5 - 9, 2018, Leuven, Belgium

Session 13 - Critical challenges and recent advances in the reliable forecast of solar activity and extreme space weather events

Elena Popova, Michael Balikhin (University of Sheffield, UK)
Friday 9/11, 09:00-10:30

Significant progress in the development of various tools to forecast the space weather parameters in the near geospace resulted from FP6, FP7, HORIZON2020 and other international/national programmes. The advance in our understanding of dynamical processes, in the near geospace based on about 60 years of in situ observations by vast number of spacecraft missions. However, one of the critical unsolved problems is the forecast of extreme space weather events with a short transit time from the Sun to L1. Prediction of such extreme events with necessary advanced time requires the forecast of solar activity. While powerful techniques that involve machine learning and systems science methodologies are indispensable in the development of accurate forecasting tools, the advance of our physical understanding about processes that occur at the Sun is also critical to develop the reliable forecast in particular for very rare extreme events. One of the great challenges is that while plentiful of remote observations of the solar processes are available, this is not the case for situ measurements that were so vital for the development of our understanding of how the magnetosphere works.

The current session is devoted to the review of recent advances in the forecasting of solar activity and understanding of dynamical processes at the Sun and to the discussion of key unsolved problems in both data based and first principles based approaches to study our nearest star, that should be resolved in order to develop the reliable forecast of extreme events.