Applied Ionospheric Imaging: Modelling Plasma Phenomena Associated with GPS L1 Band Scintillation.
Robert Burston from the University of Bath
Abstract:
Applying and combining different methods, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted.
The combined method consists of the three parts:
(i) the calculation of the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases,
(ii) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima
with the following activity maxima, and
(iii) the method of the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the
relative sunspot number data measured up to now. The used data sets include yearly,
corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values.
With these combined procedures a lower amplitude of the next solar activity maximum,
in comparison with the previous one, is estimated.
