Keynote lectures

Find out the key issues of that day during these plenary lectures.
Room: Delvaux

SSA SWE Segment status and prospects Juha-Pekka Luntama Mon 23, 13:30
Solar energetic particles: observations, forecasting & impact Tom Berger Mon 23, 14:00
What do we know of solar flares? Hugh Hudson Tue 24, 09:00
Geomagnetically Induced Currents & Power Grids Antti Pulkkinen Tue 24, 09:30
Rosetta: flying through gas and dust Andrea Accomazzo Cancelled
SOHO - 20j old guide to space and sun environment Richard Harrison Wed 25, 09:00
Model Validation & Metrics Studies for Space Environment Predictions Masha Kuznetsova Wed 25, 09:30
Planetary Space Weather in the Outer Heliosphere Chris Arridge Thu 26, 09:00
GAIA: First year flight operations in L2 environment Federico Di Marco Cancelled
Space weather incident of Nov 4, 2015 Hermann Opgenoorth Thu 26, 09:30
Neutron Monitors to study Space Weather in the Earth's Atmosphere & near-Earth Erwin Flueckiger Fri 27, 09:00
Radiation Belt Modeling and Forecasts: Limitations, Challenges and Future Needs Reiner Friedel Fri 27, 09:30

SSA SWE Segment status and prospects

Juha-Pekka LuntamaMon, 23th, 13:30
Introduced by Alain Hilgers
In 2015 ESA SSA Programme has entered the second half of Period 2. Period 1 of the Programme started in 2009 with an objective to setup a framework for acquiring European independent capability to watch for objects and natural phenomena that could harm satellites in orbit or sensitive ground based infrastructure. The main objective of the Space Weather Segment during SSA Period 1 was testing and demonstration of the space weather service capability using a bottom up approach utilising existing and mature European space weather service assets. This period also included establishment of the SSA SWE Coordination Centre (SSCC), four prototype Expert Service Centres and the SWE Data Centre. This lead to the demonstration of the feasibility of the federated service provision concept.

ESA SSA Period 2 started at the beginning of 2013 and will last until the end of 2016. For the Space Weather Segment, transition to Period 2 introduced an increasing amount of the top-down approach aimed towards developing new European space weather capabilities. This transition was started already during Period 1 with the initiation of the SSA Space Weather Segment architecture definition studies and activities enhancing existing space weather assets. The objective of Period 2 is to initiate SWE space segment developments in the form of hosted payload missions and further expand the federated service network. A strong focus is placed on demonstration and testing of European capabilities in the range of SWE service domains with a view to establishing core products which can form the basis of SWE service provision during SSA Period 3.

Period 3 of the Programme will be started in 2017, subject to the approval of the programme proposal by the ESA Member States at the Ministerial Level Council meeting in 2016. Developments of new space weather capabilities by networking European assets and transition towards operational space weather services are foreseen to be the main objectives of the Space Weather Segment during this period. SSA Period 3 is also planned to address the need to ensure availability and continuity of the space weather observations by implementing more hosted payload missions and provisionally starting the implementation of the first European dedicated space weather satellite mission. Support for underpinning scientific research to enhance space weather nowcasting and forecasting capability will of course be included into the objectives of SSA Period 3.

This presentation will cover the current status of the SSA SWE Segment and the achievements during SSA Period 1 and the first half of Period 2. The presentation will show the Programme plans for the second half of Period 2 and outline the Programme objectives and plans for ESA SSA Period 3.

Solar energetic particles: observations, forecasting & impact

Tom BergerMon, 23th, 14:00
Introduced by Mike Marsh
We review the space weather phenomenon of solar energetic particle (SEP) events, outlining the chain of processes leading from observations to real-time forecast products, to impacts on technological systems and human factors. Beginning with a review of the current state of knowledge regarding SEPs including the difference between SEPs and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), the origin of SEP events in energetic solar magnetic eruptions, propagation through interplanetary space, and the link to surprisingly rare Ground-Level Enhancement (GLE) events, we examine the observations of some of the major events of the recent past. The process of observing, quantifying, and disseminating real-time information on SEP events at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is outlined and the state of the art of extant models of energetic particle radiation for applications such as commercial aviation safety is examined. The primary impacts of SEP events are discussed with an emphasis on the risks to commercial airline and space travel and efforts to establish concepts of operations during extreme events. We close with a discussion of the recently released National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan developed by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) that includes several actions relevant to the SEP aspects of extreme space weather events.

What do we know of solar flares?

Hugh HudsonTue, 24th, 09:00
Introduced by Marie Dominique
Solar flares and eruptions are at the origin of most space weather dynamics. Their detection and prediction has therefore been a high priority of the solar physics community for many years. Although satellites are now continuously monitoring the Sun and can observe solar flares over several orders of magnitude of energy release, understanding and modeling flares remains a major challenge.

The so-called standard model (or CSHKP model) has been developed over many years to provide a good phenomenological understanding of the process. But when trying to go beyond a qualitative description of flares, this model faces inconsistencies. Alternatives have been proposed to try to explain the details of the energy release and transport in solar flares, but none of them has united the whole solar physics community so far.

We propose a keynote summarizing what we have learned of the process from observations and reviewing the various theoretical alternatives that are currently debated.

Geomagnetically Induced Currents & Power Grids

Antti PulkkinenTue, 24th, 09:30
Introduced by Alan Thomson
Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flowing in long manmade conductor systems have become one of the main space weather concerns. The potential for widespread problems in operating high-voltage power transmission systems during major geomagnetic storms has prompted increasing federal regulatory, science, industry and public interest in the problem. The impact caused by extreme storm events has been of special interest and consequently much of the recent GIC research has been focused on defining extreme GIC event scenarios and quantifying the corresponding transmission system response. In addition, there is an elevated need for developing next generation GIC prediction products for the power industry.

In this presentation, I will discuss the key scientific concepts pertaining to GIC and provide a brief review of the recent progress in developing extreme storm scenarios and new predictive techniques. Much of the recent progress in understanding GIC and its impact on power grids has resulted from improved scientific community-power industry interactions. The common language and information exchange interfaces established between the two communities have led to significant progress in transitioning scientific knowledge into detailed impacts analyses. I will provide a few personal reflections on the interactions with the power industry. We also face a number of future challenges in specifying GIC, for example, in terms of more realistic modeling of the three-dimensional geomagnetic induction process. I will discuss briefly some of these future challenges.

Rosetta: flying through gas and dust

Andrea AccomazzoWed, 25th, 09:00
Introduced by Susan McKenna-Lawlor
Rosetta is a mission that chases the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The mission has to deal with specific environmental conditions in the orbital excursion around the Sun. Flying through the space environment, Rosetta encounters the cometary gas and dust affecting the mission.

Model Validation & Metrics Studies for Space Environment Predictions

Masha KuznetsovaWed, 25th, 09:30
Introduced by Suzy Bingham
Systematic evaluation of space environment models and tools and confidence assessment of space weather forecasting techniques and procedures are critical for development and further improvements of operational space weather prediction capabilities. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key information needed for making high-consequence decisions. The approach to the validation, uncertainty assessment and to the format of the metrics is strongly dependent on specific applications and end user needs.

There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristics of space environment parameters are the most important for specific impacts on technological and biological systems.

We will review successes and lessons learned from on-going coordinated model validation activities and metrics studies, and focus on challenges of model-data comparisons, such as appropriate metrics selection for specific applications, observational data quality and availability, sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters, boundary conditions, modeling assumptions, adjustable parameters. We will discuss ideas for community-wide initiatives to build upon successes and to address challenges of metrics an validation activities, to develop guidelines and procedures to trace improvements over time and to pave a path forward.

Planetary Space Weather in the Outer Heliosphere

Chris ArridgeThu, 26th, 09:00
Introduced by Christina Plainaki
Exploration of the outer heliosphere beyond Mars is complex and expensive, partly due to a combination of long interplanetary transfers and use of heavy launch vehicles. The effects of planetary Space Weather add an additional dimension to these issues. The magnetospheres of giant planets are also host to a unique set of processes, mass, momentum and energy sources that produce differing and poorly-understood Space Weather effects. Jupiter's magnetosphere is the most effective particle accelerator in our solar system, apart from the Sun, and dynamics in the magnetospheres of both Jupiter and Saturn are driven/triggered in different ways compared to Earth's magnetosphere. The magnetospheres at Uranus and Neptune have largely unknown responses to varying solar wind conditions and they also have highly asymmetrical magnetospheres where the dynamical consequences, as applied to Space Weather, are unknown but may yield important insights for terrestrial Space Weather during periods of geomagnetic reversals.

The effects of Planetary Space Weather on the in situ exploration of the outer heliosphere by robotic missions and human spaceflight will be reviewed. We particularly focus on how we might forecast and design space systems to account for such effects. We will particularly consider the effects of the radiation environments at the giant planets, effects of penetrating radiation on the quality of in situ and remote sensing measurements, the effects of galactic cosmic rays and solar wind structures at large heliocentric distances.

GAIA: First year flight operations in L2 environment

Federico Di MarcoThu, 26th, 09:30
Introduced by Alexi Glover
Gaia is a European Space Agency's (ESA) science cornerstone mission and was launched on 19-Dec-2013 on a Soyuz-ST-B from Kourou, French Guyana. The Gaia mission relies on the proven principles of ESA's Hipparcos mission to solve one of the most difficult yet deeply fundamental challenges in modern astronomy: to create an extraordinarily precise three-dimensional map of sources up to visual magnitude 20. This is estimated to be over one billion sources throughout our Galaxy and beyond. The demanding performance requirements led to a very stable thermal/mechanical design with no moving parts and an operational Lissajous orbit around the second Earth-Sun Lagrange point (L2). The Attitude and Orbit Control System (AOCS) in particular includes two novel aspects: precise rate measurements derived through the telescope optics and Charge Coupled Devices (CCDs) are used in the AOCS control loop, and actuation via a cold gas micro propulsion system for attitude control and solar radiation pressure compensation. These allow the highly demanding stability requirements to be met. In addition, an Monomethylhydrazine (MMH)/Nitrogen Tetroxide (NTO) chemical propulsion system is used for fall back modes and orbit maintenance and control. This paper describes the first years of flight operations of Gaia in the L2 space environment.

Neutron Monitors to study Space Weather in the Earth's Atmosphere & near-Earth

Erwin FlueckigerFri, 27th, 09:00
Introduced by Christina Plainaki
Ground-based cosmic ray measurements by the global network of neutron monitors (NMs) play a significant role in the understanding of space weather scenarios. Comprehensive data records provide an important basis for the study of cosmic ray effects in the Earth's atmosphere and on the ground. Real-time NM observations and advanced new analysis methods are significant as forecasting tools for geomagnetic disturbances in association with CME-related interplanetary shocks, as an alert and monitoring instrument of the variability of particle radiation at the Earth, and as a key element in the assessment of the radiation dose at aircraft altitude during energetic solar particle events.

Radiation Belt Modeling and Forecasts: Limitations, Challenges and Future Needs

Reiner FriedelFri, 27th, 09:30
Introduced by Dave Pitchford
In the scientific community, the focus of space research and model development is on understanding the underlying physics and system science of the environment in question. This often leads to a good understanding of the system, while at the same time the models in question are incapable of predicting or modeling any actual state of the system with any accuracy.

Using current, state-of the art diffusion codes for the Earth’s radiation belt I will argue that our main limitation no longer lies in the models themselves but rather in the specification of their boundary conditions and other required inputs.

I will further argue that in Space Weather modeling and prediction we are neither committing sufficient resources to providing these inputs, nor are we performing the required research that can effectively provide these inputs for either now-casting or forecasting needs into the future.