The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)

The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS) prototype will be demonstrated and described in this ESWW13 "Fair Stand". DAFFS was developed for the US NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center by NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), after a successful demonstration that it out-performs the NOAA/SWPC forecasts. DAFFS uses near-real-time data from NOAA, SDO/HMI, and the NSO/GONG network to issue both region- and full-disk forecasts of solar flares, based on multi-variable non-parametric Discriminant Analysis. It has been designed with fully operational redundancy and autonomy (DAFFS is at Technology Readiness Level = 6-7). Presently, DAFFS provides forecasts to match those issued by NOAA (in terms of thresholds and validity periods, e.g. M1.0 and above for 1-, 2-, and 3- day forecasts), but a large range of customization options are available, and will be described.

We look forward to discussing DAFFS' capabilities and options with the ESWW13 participants.

Contact: KD Leka, Graham Barnes, Eric Wagner, of NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)

DAFFS development at NWRA and this presentation are supported by NOAA/SBIR contracts WC-133R-13-CN-0079 and WC-133R-14-CN-0103, with additional support from NWRA, NASA contract NNH12CG10C, plus acknowledgment to the SDO/HMI, NSO/GONG, and NOAA/SWPC facilities and personnel for data products and support.