Session 13 - Model Metrics, Verification and Validation

Alexi Glover (ESA), Piers Jiggens (European Space Research And Technology Centre), Suzy Bingham (Met Office, UK)
Friday 18/11, 10:00-13:00

Evaluation of models, forecasts and systems is crucial in providing end-users with a robust and reliable service. It’s essential for modellers and service providers to understand the strengths and potential limitations of models and forecast processes, in order to improve services. It’s also important to understand the assumptions and algorithms on which models are based, and to assess the reliability of the associated infrastructure: e.g. data systems, space and ground-based measurement infrastructure.

Over recent years, within the space weather community, there has been growing momentum within the area of verification and validation. However, prototype services frequently operate as capability demonstrators and verification of their ability to reproduce/predict over a range of space weather conditions, from minor to extreme, has yet to be completed. Forecast accuracy has been addressed by separate activities but a community-wide consensus on how to address this question has not yet been reached.

We welcome contributions from modellers, service developers and service providers, to cover the breadth of areas in space weather forecasting including forecasting of solar transients, radiation effects, ionospheric impacts and geomagnetic conditions. We particularly encourage contributions describing results from validation activities and from coordinated model testing.

The session will review current activities and initiatives, ongoing in Europe and internationally. Through this session we hope to promote discussion on validation and verification needs for the current generation of activities under development and in planning. The session will build upon discussions at the ILWS-COSPAR workshop session on metrics to assess space weather predictions in January 2016 and COSPAR’s session in July 2016 on metrics and validation needs for space weather models and services. The session will also promote ongoing verification and validation activities through ISES.

Poster Viewing
Friday November 18, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster Area

Friday November 18, 11:00 - 13:00, Ridderzaal

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Talks : Time schedule

Friday November 18, 11:00 - 13:00, Ridderzaal
11:00Investigating the impact of the ENLIL solar wind model boundary conditions on solar wind metricsBocquet, F et al.Invited Oral
11:15Coordinated community-wide model validation initiatives: Quantifying storm impact on geospace Kuznetsova, M et al.Invited Oral
11:30Evaluating the use of geomagnetic indices for predicting potential damage to power gridsKelly, G et al.Invited Oral
11:45Model evaluation with low-altitude GOCE densitiesBruinsma, S et al.Oral
12:00Comparing SEP Forecast Performances with the SEP ScoreboardDierckxsens, M et al.Invited Oral
12:15FORSPEF tool: On the Validation and Verification of the nowcasting mode Anastasiadis, A et al.Oral
12:30IMPTAM verification and validation on GOES MAGED data for long-term variations of electron fluxes at geostationary orbitGanushkina, N et al.Oral
12:45Harmonisation of Validation and Verification procedures within the Space Weather Network in the framework of the Space Situation Awareness ProgrammeBorries, C et al.Oral


Friday November 18, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster Area
1Validation of the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM): Metrics and model comparisonsMorley, S et al.p-Poster
2Comparison of Empirical Magnetopause Location Models with Geosynchronous Data from 1996 to 2010Park, E et al.p-Poster
3Operational solar flare forecast verification in NICTKubo, Y et al.Invited p-Poster
4Validation of the Swarm plasmapause index PPiBalazs, H et al.p-Poster
5Model Metrics, verification and validation within the Heliospheric Weather Expert Service CentrePerry, C et al.Invited p-Poster
6Validation studies of the Solar Wing driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) for future improvements Tsagouri, I et al.p-Poster
7Nowcast and forecast of the F30 solar index for orbit prediction needsYaya, P et al.p-Poster
8Verification of geomagnetic storm forecasts at the UK Met OfficeBingham, S et al.p-Poster
9Flare forecast verification at the UK Met OfficeBingham, S et al.p-Poster
10CME arrival-time validation of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations at the CCMC/SWRCWold, A et al.p-Poster
11From the NEAR EARTH SPACE / SPACE WHEATHER Window the BIG DATA ERATulunay, Y et al.e-Poster