Session 2 - SSA Space Weather Service Network

Erwin De Donder (BISA), Alexi Glover (ESOC), Michel Kruglanski (BISA), Norma Crosby (BISA), Jesse Andries (ROB), Claudia Borries (DLR), Daniel Martini (NOSWE-TGO), Chris Perry (RAL)
Monday 14/11, 14:30-18:30
Delvaux

The ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme supports networking, development and the ultimate utilization of European space weather (SWE) assets in order to provide timely space weather information, products and services to end users as well as user support. The SWE Service Network is centered around a number of Expert Service Centres (ESCs) and an overall Coordination Centre and helpdesk (SSCC).
During 2016, the Network has undergone an intensive development phase, in particular focussing on the five ESCs. This includes the incorporation of many new products along with essential work towards establishing the Expert Centres as part of an overall pre-operational framework which will form the basis for consistent and reliable service provision as the Network continues to develop.

Services are accessible via the SSA SWE Portal at http://swe.ssa.esa.int/

In this session the focus will be on the evolving SWE Network and its ability to respond to specific SWE service needs. The session is open to all and contributions from the wider space weather community are welcome. We encourage end users from different affected sectors to present their specific SWE service requirements.

Poster Viewing
Monday November 14, 16:00 - 17:00, Poster Area

Talks
Monday November 14, 14:30 - 16:00, Delvaux
Monday November 14, 17:00 - 18:30, Delvaux

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Talks : Time schedule

Monday November 14, 14:30 - 16:00, Delvaux

14:30	Introduction	Glover, A et al.	Oral
	Alexi Glover
	ESA
	The ESA Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme supports networking, development and the ultimate utilization of European space weather (SWE) assets in order to provide timely space weather information, products and services to end users as well as user support. The SWE Service Network is centered around a number of Expert Service Centres (ESCs) and an overall Coordination Centre and helpdesk (SSCC). During 2016, the Network has undergone an intensive development phase, in particular focussing on the five ESCs. This includes the incorporation of many new products along with essential work towards establishing the Expert Centres as part of an overall pre-operational framework which will form the basis for consistent and reliable service provision as the Network continues to develop. Services are accessible via the SSA SWE Portal at http://swe.ssa.esa.int/ In this session the focus will be on the evolving SWE Network and its ability to respond to specific SWE service needs. The session is open to all and contributions from the wider space weather community are welcome. We encourage end users from different affected sectors to present their specific SWE service requirements.
14:40	SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre	Chabanski, S et al.	Oral
	Sophie Chabanski
	Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium
	This talk will present the SSA Space Weather Coordination Center (SSCC): who is the SSCC; how it provides the first European Space Weather Helpdesk; how it collaborates with scientific experts gathered under the themes Solar Weather, Space Radiation, Ionospheric Weather, Geomagnetic Conditions and Heliospheric Weather; how it coordinates the provision of Space Weather products and services available either at the SWE Data Centre or at federated sites; how it monitors the SSA Space Weather Service Network and how it provides tailored Space Weather products in support of ESA missions.
14:50	P2-SWE-XII: Tailoring for Arctic Region users	Høeg, P et al.	Oral
	Per Høeg
	Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
	TBD
15:00	Real-time Hα observations and automatic flare detection at Kanzelhöhe Observatory within ESA SSA	Veronig, A et al.	Invited Oral
	Astrid M. Veronig, Werner Pötzi
	Kanzelhöhe Observatory / Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria
	Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO; Austria) regularly performs high-cadence full-disk imaging of the solar chromosphere in the Hα spectral line. In the frame of ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) program, a new system for real-time Hα data provision and automatic flare detection at KSO was developed. The data and events detected are published in near real-time at ESA's SSA Space Weather portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/kso-federated). In this talk, we give an overview on the KSO data products provided within the SSA SWE Solar Weather Service Centre, the real-time flare detection system and its performance since July 2013.
15:10	The SSA SWE A-EFFort Service : Successes and Shortcomings of Operational Solar Flare Prediction	Georgoulis, M et al.	Invited Oral
	Manolis K. Georgoulis, Kostas Tziotziou, Kostas Themelis, Margarita Magiati, Georgia Angelopoulou, Manolis Zoulias
	RCAAM of the Academy of Athens, 11527 Athens, Greece
	Solar flare prediction is arguably the first aspect of the space-weather forecasting endeavor that has been placed on relatively rigid operational settings. Forecasting of flares has been made possible thanks to the continuous availability of space-based, high-cadence magnetic-field measurements of the solar photosphere that can then be utilized quantitatively. Over the past two decades, literally tens of forecast techniques have been proposed, based on (1) different predictors and (2) different ways of inferring flare probabilities over a specified forecast window. Here we describe the main principles of the Athens Effective Solar Flare Forecasting (A-EFFort), a pre-operational service at work at ESA's SSA SWE service portal for the past 1.5 years. A-EFFort relies on a single flare predictor with probabilities inferred by Bayesian analysis adapted into Laplace's rule of succession. It is a fully automated service, requiring no human intervention. Some case-by-case successes and key shortcomings of the service are provided, along with the main service validation approaches. The A-EFFort is a federated SSA SWE Service physically based at RCAAM of the Academy of Athens and implemented via ESA Contract 4000111994/14/D/MRP.
15:20	SIDC products in ESA-SSA Space weather service network	Andries, J et al.	Oral
	Jesse Andries, Vincent Malisse, and the entire SIDC team
	Royal Observatory of Belgium
	This talk presents the current products and services provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre to the ESA SSA Space Weather service network and discusses the efforts in harmonizing, standardizing and documenting the existing services as well as the ongoing developments of new and enhanced services.
15:30	Automated Warnings of Earth arrivals (AWARE)	Vennerstrom, S et al.	Oral
	Susanne Vennerstrom and Kristoffer Leer
	DTU Space
	A new service to automatically detect and classify solar wind disturbances as they arrive in the L1-point upstream of Earth is being federated as part of the ESA/SSA services in the Heliospheric Expert Service Centre. The focus of the service is to detect arrival of disturbances with potential to create geomagnetic storms. The input to the service is solar wind in situ magnetic field and plasma observations in L1, currently provided in near real-time by NOAA/NASA from the ACE SWEPAM and MAG instruments. Periods of significantly enhanced magnetic field are identified and classified according to their most likely cause, being either interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) or high speed streams creating stream interaction regions (SIRs). Arrival of significant interplanetary shocks is also detected and included in the classification procedure. The output of the service is a display illustrating arrivals for the last 3 days, including alerts for arrivals within the last 24 hours. The display is updated every second minute. Statistics of the performance of the service is presented and further developments discussed.
15:40	Met Office Services within the H-ESC	Marsh, M et al.	Oral
	Mike Marsh, Catherine Burnett, Mark Gibbs, David Jackson
	Met Office
	The Met Office is responsible for providing 24/7 operational space weather forecasts for the UK and supplying space weather advice to UK government. Met Office forecasters monitor near-Earth solar wind and SEPs (via ACE and GOES data) and monitors the Sun via SOHO, SDO and STEREO data. Forecasts of near Earth solar wind are produced using the WSA-Enlil model which runs 12 times per day on the Met Office supercomputer and space weather alerts are generated on the basis of observations and forecast information. As part of the Heliospheric Expert Service Centre, the Met Office is extending its focus from near-Earth to the wider Heliosphere, up to the orbit of Mars within the current development phase. This presentation demonstrates how products have been tailored to meet these wider ESA requirements.
15:50	The H-ESC UNIGRAZ tools: Empirical Solar Wind Forecasting (ESWF) and the drag-based model (DBM) for CME propagation	Temmer, M et al.	Oral
	Manuela Temmer[1], Tomislav Zic[2], Astrid M. Veronig[1], Martin A. Reiss[1], Roland Maderbacher[1]
	[1]Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria; [2]Hvar Observatory, University of Zagreb, Croatia
	UNIGRAZ with its Kanzelhöhe Observatory and the research group on Solar and Heliospheric physics at the Institute of Physics, is a world-wide leading institution in the research on space weather. The main research areas cover the physics, interplanetary propagation and geomagnetic consequences of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the conditions and modelling of the solar wind properties and its effect on ICME propagation, as well as the high-energy physics of solar flares and accelerated particles. Since October 2015, University of Graz is part of the Heliospheric Weather Expert-Service Center (H-ESC) coordinated by the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL Space) in the frame of ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme. Our services cover the forecast of high-speed solar wind streams as well as arrival times and impact speeds of CMEs at Earth or other planetary targets. The tools are based on thorough research, co-operatively performed with the University of Zagreb in Croatia. We describe the physical basis as well as the performance tests of the H-ESC service tools „Empirical Solar Wind Forecasting (ESWF)“ and the „Drag-Based-Model (DBM)“.

Monday November 14, 17:00 - 18:30, Delvaux

17:00	Space weather products based on Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) data measured on-board PROBA-V	Borisov, S et al.	Oral
	Stanislav Borisov, Sylvie Benck, Mathias Cyamukungu
	Center for Space Radiations, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain
	The satellite PROBA-V was launched on 7th May 2013 onto a Low Earth Orbit of 820 km altitude and 98.7° inclination. The Energetic Particle Telescope accommodated on PROBA-V provides uncontaminated fluxes of electrons (0.5–8 MeV, 6 channels), protons (9.5–300 MeV, 11 channels) and α-particles (38–1200 MeV, 11 channels). The particles are gathered from a well-defined field of view of 52° (at maximum) assured by a set of coincidences within the instrument, while the nominal covered pitch-angle is in the 60 – 130° range. The measurements are conducted contiguously and transmitted on-ground 3 times per day where within several hours they are processed till high-level scientific data products for the particles mentioned above, including: -> flux time series along the orbit (L1); -> flux time series on a regular B-L grid (L2); -> up to 4 day ahead radiation environment prediction; -> static radiation model for covered region of magnetosphere; -> weekly flux world maps and average spectra encountered in SAA and outer belt at 820 km altitude (LEO); -> and other products characterizing radiation belt dynamics (under development). This presentation will focus on these PROBA-V/EPT data products, providing potential users with information on their properties, possible applications, quality assurance and collaborative exploitation.
17:10	An empirical nowcast model of electron populations relevant to spacecraft charging	Forsyth, C et al.	Oral
	Colin Forsyth, Jonathan Rae, Andrew Fazakerley
	UCL Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Dorking, UK
	The flux of low energy (<100 keV) electrons is a major contributor to spacecraft charging effects. Within the magnetosphere, the majority of electrons fall have energies in this range, thus in order to predict possible times of enhanced risk, it is necessary to be able to predict this low energy electron flux at all local times and at a range of positions away from the Earth. Using data from the PEACE instruments on-board the ESA Cluster II spacecraft, we have developed a new empirical model of the omni-directional electron fluxes at 10 eV to 30 keV energies under the R-ESC programme. This new model covers all local times and L-shells of L=4-10 Re (24,000 – 63,000 km altitude). The model output includes the mean, median and upper and lower deciles of the electron differential energy fluxes and phase space densities under varying solar wind input or magnetospheric activity levels. Here, we present the first results from this model, comparing and contrasting the outputs with various existing models, such as the Denton et al. (2015) geosynchronous flux model, that provide a more limited coverage of near-Earth space, and discuss potential future developments of this model.
17:20	Space Weather services from a satellite manufacturer point of view	Ideström, J et al.	Oral
	Johan Ideström[1] , Henning Wulf[1] , Samantha Rason[2]
	[1]OHB System AG, Bremen, Germany; [2]Antwerp Space, Hoboken (Antwerp), Belgium
	OHB is the third biggest satellite manufacturer in Europe. Space Weather is a growing concern for us and we have to consider it already during the design phase of the satellite. Electra is OHB’s first satellite of a new generation using EP (electrical propulsion) for orbit raising. EP gives many advantages (weight reduction and so on), but causes as well new radiation challenges. A satellite undergoing 200 days of orbit raising with EP gets a radiation dose which is equivalent to 6.7 years at GEO. This added radiation can affect the satellite’s electronics and even materials, and therefore new radiation precautions and mitigation measurements need to be implemented. This talk will give an overview concerning which space weather tools do we use, how does it impact our design, where lay the challenges for EP satellites, which sensors we would like to fly to get better in-situ measurements, and which radiation standardization (from industry point of view) we want to establish.
17:30	The European Ionosonde Service: current status, performance assessment and development needs	Belehaki, A et al.	Oral
	Anna Belehaki, Ioanna Tsagouri and the EIS team
	National Observatory of Athens, Greece; http://eis2.space.noa.gr/EIS/index.php/EISTeam
	The European Ionosonde Service (EIS) is a federated service belonging to the Expert Service Center Ionospheric Weather (I-ESC) of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme - Space Weather segment of ESA. EIS operates since 2014 and releases a set of products to characterize the bottomside and topside ionosphere over Europe. EIS is based on a set of prediction models driven by data from ground based DPS4 and DPS4D ionosondes and supportive data from GNSS satellites and the ACE spacecraft. The service monitors the critical frequency foF2 and the bottomside electron density, extrapolates the electron density profile up to the height of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at European middle and high latitudes. EIS releases maps for nowcasting, forecasting and long-term planning purposes and provides estimates for forthcoming disturbances mainly triggered by geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The performance of models implemented by EIS has been validated and based on these results, it was possible to issue together with the products, quality metrics characterizing the product's reliability. The EIS products meet the requirements of various SSA service domains, especially the transionospheric radio link and the spacecraft operations. In this contribution we present an assessment of the EIS performance and an outlook for improving existing products and developing new ones.
17:40	Service and database of past values of solar and geomagnetic indices relevant to drag calculation	Dziak-jankowska, B et al.	Oral
	Beata Dziak-Jankowska[1], Claudia Borries[2], Mariusz Pożoga[1], Łukasz Tomasik[1]
	[1]Space Research Centre Polish academy of Sciences; [2]German Aerospace Center
	The main technical objective of the project is to establish and develop service SST/arv dedicated to the Space Surveillance and Tracking domain. Service SST/arv provides all relevant information, data and indices required to calculate drag forces: service of archive solar and geomagnetic indices which can be used to calculate orbits back in time. The End-User interface of the SST/arv is developed as a web server allowing manual selection of products from the web portal as well as using an application for automatic file transfer (API interface). System is integrated at a Level 2 (adopted): products are available via federated web page integrated with SWE Portal via Single Sign On authentication subsystem. Dedicated web page presents the current available data in the form of tables and figures with meta data information. Outputs are generated as CSV, JSON files and figures illustrating past values in formats PNG, PDF and EPS.
17:50	Contributions of the Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center to the space weather services	Borries, C et al.	Oral
	Claudia Borries, Jens Berdermann, Henrike Barkmann
	German Aerospace Center
	The ionospheric weather products of the Space Weather Application Center- Ionosphere (SWACI) belong to the key products within the Expert Service Centre Ionospheric Weather provided on the SSA Space Weather portal. Currently, SWACI is transferred into a more robust system introduced as Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC). In the new release of the ESA Space Weather portal, IMPC provides the familiar products along with updated and new products deployed in the portal. This includes the near real-time and forecast maps of Total Electron Content (TEC), slab thickness, local scintillation data and Rate Of change of TEC Index (ROTI) maps. Here, we will present the set of IMPC products, their recent developments and properties as well as their presentation in a new web environment.
18:00	Swarm mission data products for space weather application	Stolle, C et al.	Oral
	Stolle Claudia[1], Olsen Nils[2], Martini Daniel[3], Berdermann Jens[4], Doornbos Eelco[5], Dunlop Malcom W.[6], Kervalishvili Guram[1], Heilig Balazs[7], Holmdahl Olsen Poul Erik[2], Langhans Mirjam[1], Marghitu Octav[8], Rauberg Jan[1], Thomson Alan W.P[9], Willer Anna Naemi[2]
	[1]GFZ Potsdam, Germany; [2]DTU Space, Demnark; [3]TGO, University of Tromsø, Norway; [4]DLR Neustrelitz, Germany; [5]TU Delft, Netherlands; [6]RAL STFC, UK; [7]MFGI, Hungary; [8]ISS Romania; [9]NERC-BGS, UK
	The ESA’s Swarm LEO satellite constellation mission has been successfully launched in November 2013. It provides observations of high precision magnetic field, plasma and neutral densities, and electric field. On board GPS observables are used for sounding ionospheric and plasmaspheric total electron content. Continuous data sets from LEO satellites, including Swarm have been used for developing empirical models of the temporal occurrence and local distribution of typical structures, like the expansion of the auroral oval depending on magnetic activity; or the typical climatological behaviour of plasma structures in the F region ionosphere, such as equatorial depletions or polar enhancements. Among others, these phenomena can harm, for example, continuous radio navigation and communication (e.g., Galileo, GPS) through the development of severe ionospheric plasma gradients, e.g., during geomagnetic storms. Day-by-day Swarm observations combined with existing empirical models are used to provide a nowcast of the location of such severe events. Thus, observations from the orbital altitude of about 400km provide unique and novel tools and proves high potential for space weather monitoring. ESA SSA has launched the “Swarm Utilization Analyses” study to investigate the potential of LEO satellites on the example of Swarm for enhancing the space weather product portfolio that currently exists within the ESA’s SSA SWE portal. This paper will report on recent results from the SUA study and we will emphasise specific examples of new space weather monitoring products that have been described within the project, some of which are currently under implementation
18:10	The status of Danish Greenland magnetometer chain	Behlke, R et al.	Oral
	Behlke, Rico
	Danish Technical University
	DTU Space operates the Greenland magnetometer array, including 19 variometer stations whereof 3 are geomagnetic observatories. This array consists of a West Coast Chain with 13 stations including three observatories between 77.47 and 61.16 geographic North. On the East Coast 5 variometer stations are located between 81.6 and 65.6 geographic North. The Greenland Array covers polar cap, cusp and auroral regions. These data allow the monitoring of electromagnetic processes in the polar ionosphere and magnetosphere, and are a significant contribution to global data sets. The vast majority of the sensors now employed are the Danish FGE 3-axis linear-core fluxgate magnetometers designed and built under the supervision of Ole Rasmussen and later Lars William Pedersen. They are optimized for long-term stability (observatory-quality instruments) rather than high sensitivity. The stations use 16 bit A/D converters with 20s or 1s sampling rate, optimized for 1 minute mean data. Hence, the rms-noise is approximately 0.1 nT in the 1 mHz - 1 Hz band, the time accuracy is 1s and the final resolution is 0.25 nT for most data at 20s sampling rate and 0.125 nT for most data at 1s sampling rate. During setup, the sensor axes are oriented along local magnetic north (H), local magnetic east (E) and vertical down (Z). Sensors at some stations are equipped with a suspension which guarantees vertical alignment. The instruments run fully automatically and require (normally) no manual intervention. All stations use the FGE vector magnetometer. Greenland magnetometer data has been aquired in digital form since 1981. From 1981 through 1990 all stations recorded with 1-min sampling rate. In 1986 the acquisition systems was gradually modified in order to record with 20-s sampling rate. Modification was completed by 1991, and since then all stations run at 20-s sampling rate. In 1999 acquisition system was made capable to record at 1-s sampling in addition to the continued 20-s sampoling rate. In 2001 most stations were upgraded, and in the summer of 2002 the upgrade was completed. Now all stations have laptops as dataloggers recording at 1Hz. In this presentation, we provide a status overview of the chain and its role within the G-ESC.
18:20	The end user requirements for service to power systems operators, Kåre Rudsar, Statnett	Martini, D et al.	Oral
	Daniel Martini
	Norwegian Center for Space Weather - TGO
	TBD

Posters

Monday November 14, 16:00 - 17:00, Poster Area

1	SOHO/ERNE catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events for 1996-2014	Vainio, R et al.	e-Poster
	Rami Vainio[1], Miikka Paassilta[1], Eino Valtonen[1], Osku Raukunen[1], Timo Eronen[1], Athanasios Papaioannou[2]
	[1]University of Turku, Finland; [2]National Observatory of Athens, Greece
	We have analyzed observations of SOHO/ERNE in the 55-80 MeV proton channel to identify major SEP events from May 1996 until the end of 2014. Altogether 168 events were identified and analyzed for the proton and electron onset times at 1 AU, proton event duration, times of soft X-ray flux onset and time of maximum of the time derivative of the X-ray flux. Catalogued information on X-ray flare location and CME characteristics were also included. We performed proton velocity dispersion analysis for the events and computer heavy ion fluences for them, as well. The paper will present the statistical analysis results for the catalogued events and compare the results for the two solar cycles, 23 and 24. This catalogue will be provided on-line to the users as the Federated Product R.130 of the University of Turku for the Radiation Expert Service Centre of ESA's SSA programme.
2	Forecasting of Space Weather in IZMIRAN	Abunina, M et al.	p-Poster
	Sergey Gaidash, Maria Abunina, Anatoliy Belov, Artem Abunin, Evgeniya Eroshenko, Victoria Oleneva, Victor Yanke
	Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN)
	In the IZMIRAN forecasting Center of Space Weather since the August 1998 the everyday prognosis of the main parameters of Space Weather are produced for different time intervals. In the automatic mode the Alerts are sent out (warning on the sharp changes of the basically space weather parameters). The most practical implementation the production of the Center finds in the space field (ROSCOSMOS). Everyday prognosis of the solar and geomagnetic activity are the input parameters for the models of calculation of the upper atmosphere density, with which help the ballistics estimate and forecast the variations of orbital parameters of the space apparatus and space objects determining dangerous approaching and possibilities their leaving an orbit. Due to prognosis of proton events the chance to avoid the problem with malfunctions of astronavigation systems exists by the way of timely transferring to the manual control at the extreme solar events. The forecasts of the Center are used also in medicine and translated via different mass media.
3	Services in Support of Atmospheric Drag Calculation (P2-SWE-II)	Jackson, D et al.	p-Poster
	Mike Marsh[1], David Jackson[1], Daniel Heynderickx[2], Eugeniu Mihnea Popescu[3], Reuben Wright[4]
	[1]Met Office; [2]DH Consultancy; [3]Institute of Space Science; [4]DEIMOS Space UK Ltd.
	The ESA SSA SWE activity on “Space Weather Service Developments” (P2-SWE-II) is focused on the development of services within the SWE/SST domain in support of the SSA Space Weather (SWE) network. It is concerned with the provision of three services required to support atmospheric modelling for the purpose of atmospheric drag calculation. All these services will be available via the SSA SWE Portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int). The first of these services provides a prototype atmospheric forecast of neutral density, within the altitude range 120-1500 km, for the purposes of calculating satellite atmospheric drag. The forecasts are based on the pre-operational implementation of the semi-empirical model DTM2013. Forecasts of up to around one month ahead shall be produced, and ways in which neutral density estimates for several solar cycles ahead can be calculated are also being assessed. A key part of these predictions is the geomagnetic and solar indices that are used to drive DTM2013. A second service thus provides access to a comprehensive suite of such indices (both nowcast and forecast) together with an assessment of their accuracy. A third service provides, in a similar manner, access to an archive of solar and geomagnetic indices needed to support the atmospheric modelling activities. This archive is being developed in coordination with, and complementary to, the primary archive of indices developed within the “Space Weather Expert Service Centres Definition and Development” activity (P2-SWE-I). This activity is in development under the ESA contract No 4000116100/15/D/MRP.
4	Forecasting and Nowcasting of Radiation Exposure On-Board Aircraft with AVIDOS	Latocha, M et al.	p-Poster
	Marcin Latocha, Peter Beck
	Seibersdorf Laboratories, Forschungszentrum Seibersdorf, 2444 Seibersdorf, Austria
	Radiation environment at aviation altitudes is shaped mainly by galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) but solar cosmic radiation (SRC) cannot be neglected due to rare but intensive solar particle events (SPE) that may lead to temporary enhanced radiation levels in atmosphere or even on the ground (Ground Level Enhancement – GLE). Nowcasting of radiation effects on-board aircrafts and furthermore, their forecasting is of great importance for the aviation industry. This awareness is important from a radiation protection point of view and for avoiding potential risks to electronic components or systems. Various codes already provide nowcasting of radiation exposure due to GCR, while nowcasting attempts due to SPE just start to emerge. Seibersdorf Laboratories have implemented nowcasting of GCR as well as of SPE in AVIDOS 2.0. For this, AVIDOS 2.0 uses three components: Monte Carlo simulation modelling, real-time data from Oulu neutron monitor station, and real-time GLE-alerts (ANeMoS). Forecasting of radiation effects due to GCR is possible with reasonable uncertainty for months or even a year in advance based on the prediction of solar activity. In the latest version of AVIDOS 2.0, we have implemented forecasting of radiation effects due to GCR for up to one year. We have based the GCR forecast on a prediction of sunspot numbers provided by SILSO system of Royal Observatory of Belgium. Long term forecasting of radiation effects at aviation altitudes due to SPE is extremely challenging owing the complex SPE characteristics and their random, currently not predictable, occurrence. To address such forecast, one would need data of energetic solar particles well in advance before they reach Earth. One also would require reliable models describing the propagation of the particle fluence, particle speed and their interactions with the interplanetary magnetic field and Earth magnetosphere. Seibersdorf Laboratories started with very preliminary investigations describing future needs. AVIDOS is accessible at ESA Space Weather portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/avidos-federated) as a federated service provided by Seibersdorf Laboratories. The development of AVIDOS was supported by the European Space Agency (ESA Contract: No. 44000105734/12/D/MRP), the Austrian Federal Ministry of Transport and Innovation, and the Austrian Aeronautics and Space Agency (ALR) as part of the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG).
5	SSA SWE RTIM -- Real-Time Ionospheric Monitoring service for high latitudes	Jacobsen, K et al.	p-Poster
	Knut Stanley Jacobsen and Yngvild Linnea Andalsvik
	Norwegian Mapping Authority
	RTIM is a service in the Ionospheric Expert Service Centre in the SSA Space Weather portal. The main products that are offered by the service are plots and data files of vertical total electron content (VTEC), Rate-Of-TEC Index (ROTI) and scintillation measured at high latitudes. In addition to the real-time data, archived data is also available. Here we give an overview of the service and the different data products.
6	VSWMC Phase 2 Customer Requirements	De keyser, J et al.	p-Poster
	Johan De Keyser[1,3], Erwin De Donder[1], Marius Echim[1], Norma Crosby[1], Luciano Rodriguez[2], Andy Devos[2], David Berghmans[2], Stefaan Poedts[3], Ralf Keil[4], Piers Jiggens[5]
	[1]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; [2]Royal Observatory of Belgium; [3]Center for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, KULeuven; [4]ESA/ESOC; [5]ESA/ESTEC
	ESA's Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) aims at bringing together space weather models and coupling them. The Phase 1 project was initiated in 2011-2012 with a first phase aiming at developing a prototype system that demonstrated a generic method for coupling such models and for executing distributed coupled-model simulations involving coronal, solar wind, and magnetospheric models. The Phase 2 project started in 2016. It is building on the heritage of the prototype development, but now the VSWMC has become part of ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme: an operational space weather forecasting system would indeed be a key tool for further development of the SSA Space Weather Element (SWE). This contribution discusses the Customer Requirements Document (CRD) that was prepared for VSWMC Phase 2, which was organized to preserve the heritage from both the VSWMC Phase 1 CRD and the SSA SWE CRD. The concept of what the VSWMC should be capable of, has now grown beyond the prototype of Phase 1. Given that the VSWMC Phase 2 should lead up to a complete operations-ready system, requirements have to be considered for more advanced features, such as real-time data provision, verification and validation mechanisms, etc.
7	The ANeMoS federated products to the SSA Space Radiation Expert Service Centre (R-ESC)	Mavromichalaki, H et al.	p-Poster
	H. Mavromichalaki, M. Gerontidou, P. Paschalis, E. Paouris
	Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens, Greece
	Abstract. Within the segment of Space Weather (SWE) of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Program of the European Space Agency (ESA) in particular on the topic of Space Radiation, the expert group of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S) has been developed the Neutron Monitor (NM) Service, which is available via ESA portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/space-radiation). Two distingue products named Multi-station Data and Ground Level Enhancement Alert Plus (GLE Alert Plus) have been implemented and are continuously provided via ESA portal. The first one is an interface, which provides an easy way to access the data that are stored in the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB).The interface connects to the NMDB slave server located at the A.Ne.Mo.S. On the other hand the GLE alert Plus system relies upon the availability of high resolution data (e.g. with 1-min cadence rate) made available in the NMDB at every minute of time (e.g. 1-min resolution). When indentifying a clear enhancement in at least three neutron monitors distributed at different geographical points around the world within a narrow time window, a GLE Alert is issued. The role of the ANeMoS, as an expert group, is to maintain and operate the above mentioned two products as part of the SSA SWE federated network including incident management, service requests, access requests and provision for eventual service closure. Additionally, the production of monthly statistics about federated products including visit statistics, most popular product, user feedback or specific user interaction (e.g. outreach activity) is also provided. Moreover, the execution of the service test campaign of in orbit environment and effects monitoring for spacecraft operation in low earth and geostationary orbit ( SCO/orb) as well as the service to airline (NSO/air) will be also supported. Recently, an ongoing service named DYASTIMA-R, which constitutes a successor of the Dynamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA) is being developed. This new simulation tool will be used for the calculation of the equivalent dose during flights scenario in the lower or higher atmosphere, characterized by different altitudes, different geographic latitudes and different solar and galactic cosmic ray intensity.
8	Monitoring the plasmapause at LEO by Swarm	Balazs, H et al.	p-Poster
	Balazs Heilig[1], Hermann Lühr[2]
	[1]MFGI, Tihany, Hungary; [2]GFZ Potsdam, Germany
	Recently, a new method for monitoring the plasmapause location in the equatorial plane was introduced based on magnetic field observations made by the CHAMP satellite in the topside ionosphere (Heilig and Lühr, 2013). Related signals are small scale field aligned currents (some 10km scale size). We now apply the technique to the SWARM constellation. Making use of the special constellation of SWARM we will be able to discriminate between temporal and spatial variations in the plasmapause more clearly. We present the first steps in the development of an empirical plasmapause model, similar to our previous CHAMP based model (Heilig and Lühr, 2013). The model will be validated by means of ground (EMMA magnetometer network) plasmapause observations, as well as by the in situ electron density observations of the Van Allen Probes. Heilig, B., and H. Lühr (2013) New plasmapause model derived from CHAMP field aligned current signatures, Ann. Geophys., 31, 529539, doi:10.5194/angeo315292013
9	Rescaled PROBA2/LYRA data used as GOES X-ray flux proxy	Dammasch, I et al.	p-Poster
	Ingolf E. Dammasch[1], Marie Dominique[1], Janet Machol[2]
	[1]ROB/SIDC; [2]NOAA
	LYRA is an EUV radiometer on ESA's PROBA2 spacecraft. Two of its detectors can be exploited to image the SXR flux. It will be demonstrated how the original LYRA data have to be scaled, what the similarities and the differences of the resulting curves are, and what causes them. It will also be shown where to find these data products.