Session 10 - Space Weather Operations & Services
Suzy Bingham (Met Office), Sophie Murray (Trinity College Dublin)
Thursday 8/11, 09:00-10:30 & 11:15-12:45
MTC 00.10, Large lecture room
Providing operational space weather services helps build technological and infrastructural resilience during space weather events. This plenary session aims to bring together a number of key areas which are essential to the successful delivery of these services. We welcome contributions on new developments in space weather operations and services, including best practices in transitioning tools or models from research to operations. Since it is important to understand the strengths and limitations of models and forecasts developed for operations, we also encourage contributions on metrics, verification, and validation of space weather applications.
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The two plenary sessions during ESWW15 will be linked by the theme of extreme event response to mitigate the impacts within and between user domains. Taking the – severe but not extreme – space weather events of September 2017 as a guide, the two sessions will conclude with 45min panel discussions. The final part of this session will include a panel discussion addressing topics arising from the Tuesday User Plenary Session. We will promote discussion on whether user requirements during severe events can be satisfied, where there are gaps in capability, and potential solutions to enable user needs to be successfully met.
Read the Sept 2017 activity summary
This online schedule is the correct one. Take care, it differs from the schedule in the printed program book.
Talks : Time scheduleThursday November 8, 09:00 - 10:30, MTC 00.10, Large lecture room
Thursday November 8, 11:15 - 12:45, MTC 00.10, Large lecture room
|09:00||SIDC operations and services: status, challenges, and lessons learned.||Andries, J et al.||Invited Oral|
| ||Jesse Andries, and entire SIDC team|
| ||Royal Observatory of Belgium|
| ||Since around 18 years the SIDC is delivering Space Weather services and operations. We will present the current status and the approach of the SIDC with regard to the provision and further development of Space Weather Services. Challenges encountered during both operations and development phases will be discussed. Lessons learned will be highlighted including also recommendations towards the broader community.|
|09:20||The Ionosphere Prediction Service for GNSS users||Rodriguez, F et al.||Oral|
| ||Filippo Rodriguez, Roberto Ronchini, Stefano Di Rollo, Eric Guyader, Angela Aragon-Angel, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Claudio Cesaroni, Luca Spogli, Vincenzo Romano, Marcio Aquino, Sreeja Vadakke Veettil, Francesco Berrilli, Dario Del Moro, Alice Cristaldi, Michael Hutchinson, Osman Kalden|
| ||Telespazio, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, University of Nottingham, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Nottingham Scientific Limited, Telespazio VEGA DE|
| ||The Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS) project has the aim to design, implement and operate a prototype for the monitoring and the prediction of ionosphere-related disturbances affecting GNSS user communities.
The project is developed in the framework of the Galileo Programme, with the view to offer to GNSS users a prediction service of potential degradation of service performance. It is funded by the European Union's R&D programme Horizon 2020. The project team is composed of Telespazio (coordinator), Nottingham Scientific Ltd, Telespazio Vega DE, The University of Nottingham, The University of Rome Tor Vergata and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.
The IPS service prototype is conceived with a 4-layer architecture:
- The external sensors which provide the input to the processors that run the algorithms;
- The processors, called RPFs, Remote Processing Facilities, that are in charge to run the forecasting and nowcasting algorithms;
- The Central Storage and Processing Facility (CSPF), that manages the output of the chain of processors;
- The Web Portal that is the final user interface
The prediction models of IPS are based on the results of the research activity carried out during the project. It represents the scientific backbone of IPS.
The IPS products are thought to monitor and forecast the solar and ionospheric activity and its well-known effect on GNSS signals and on the final performances of user applications; a whole class of products translates the observation of the atmospheric behavior and perturbations into predictions of GNSS performance figures at user level.
The user can select his own products of interest and display them by using widgets. Products are then refreshed in real-time, thereby allowing regular checks without having to reload the computation. In this sense, the web page is conceived as an operator's console.
Alarm notification can be configured when the monitored quantity overcomes a user-specified threshold.
Much attention has been devoted to the assessment of the performances of the products, through an extensive validation campaign. The validation was carried out through two different strategies. The first provides a statistical characterization of the behavior of the service using the “retro-validation” IPS products, measuring the discrepancy between the prediction and the actual value of the specific event. The second based on the direct comparison of the IPS forecasting and nowcasting products against external ones (i.e. coming from other services).
The IPS will be freely accessible, upon registration, through its web portal and from June 2018 the project team will operate the prototype for a 6-month period. User feedback will be collected during the period.|
|09:35||Scientist in the loop – Establishing tailored space weather services for Statnett, the Norwegian national power grid operator||Leussu, R et al.||Oral|
| ||Raisa Leussu, Daniel Martini|
| ||NOSWE / Tromsø Geophysical Observatory, UiT – Norges Arktiske Universitet|
| ||The Norwegian Centre for Space Weather (NOSWE) has the aim to build up an awareness and preparedness for dealing with, alerting and reducing the potential harmful effects and impact of space weather on society, modern technology and infrastructure, and to share this capacity actively through national and international cooperation, not forgetting the positive side of space weather – the aurora. The primary goal is to serve national needs in Norway, but additionally to provide a visualization of Nordic collaboration.
The harmful impacts of space weather are well known, but the interaction and action protocol with vulnerable industries, such as power grid operators, during potentially harmful events is in many cases not yet well established. Although a wealth of descriptive and detailed space weather products is readily available, there is in fact a need for a national team which follows potentially threatening space weather events and provides continuous communications through an expert - a so-called scientist in the loop.
We present the work done and lessons learned in an effort to develop an action protocol for regular and extreme events and define a roadmap for long-term collaboration with the Norwegian power grid operator, Statnett.
|09:50||CME Scoreboard and CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team||Mays, M et al.||Oral|
| ||M. L. Mays, P. Riley, C. Verbeke, CME Scoreboard participants and Working Team members|
| || NASA Goddard Space Flight Center;  Predictive Science Inc.;  KU Leuven|
| ||Starting in 2013, the CCMC developed the CME scoreboard as a portal for the operational and research communities to view/submit their forecast for CME-driven shock arrival time before it is observed. Riley et al. (2018) have performed a detailed analysis of these forecasts from 2013 - mid 2018 investigating how well the models perform, model uncertainties, and performance over time.
The CME scoreboard is a component of the broader CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team. While the scoreboard focuses on predicting CME-driven shock arrival in real-time, the working team, in conjunction with the scientific community, will evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict CME arrival times and geomagnetic impact for a set of historical events. Lessons learned from the CME Scoreboard analysis will be applied to the working team and the other way around.
This presentation will focus on the verification analysis of forecasts submitted to the CME scoreboard and also provide a status update of the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team.
|10:05||Tracking Space Weather Application Progress Towards Usability: Application Usability Levels.||Halford, A et al.||Invited Oral|
| ||Alexa Halford, Adam Kellerman, Barbara Thompson, Antti Pulkkinen, Katherine Garcia-Sage, Sophie Murphy, Brett Cater, Suzy Bingham, Dan Welling, and the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Working Group|
| ||The Aerospace Corporation,  UCLA,  NASA GSFC,  Catholic University of America,  School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin, Ierland  School of Science RMIT University, Melbourne Australia,  Met Office, UK,  University of Michigan|
| ||Space physics as a field has quickly evolved beyond science inquiries and pure research to the current point where opportunities for interdisciplinary and applied space weather research have notably increased. There is a growing need for a framework that can allow researchers and end users to identify applications for research, quantify metrics for each specific application, and enable communication between the researchers and end users. To this end, the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group, which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment, has developed the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework. The AUL framework was developed by implementing lessons learned from Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) used by the instrumentation community and Application Readiness Levels (ARLs) used by the Applied Science program in NASA’s Earth Science Division, as well as modifying the levels and their milestones to better suit the needs of the Space Weather and Heliophysics communities. We will introduce the AUL framework and show examples of how it can be applied to research for the Space Weather and Heliophysics communities. For more information on the AULs and other work being done by the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Working group, please see our website at the CCMC https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/trackprogress.php|
|11:15||The management of the space weather risk in KOREA||Mun, J et al.||Oral|
| ||Mun Junchul, Jangsuk Choi, Changhyu Ko, Jinwook Han|
| ||National Radio Research Agency, Korean Space Weather Center|
| ||The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea.
The Korean goverment defined the role in the radio wave act to establish and implement a basic plan for the management of space weather risks in order to prepare, control and recover against disasters due to variation of space weather conditions in every 5 years.
In this study, we will introduce this basic plan and KSWC’s policy and strategy for space weather risk management.
|11:30|| Operational Integration of New Space Weather Observations and Model Guidance||Steeburgh, R et al.||Invited Oral|
| ||Robert A. Steenburgh, Jeff M. Johnson[1,2], Eric Adamson[1,2], Howard J. Singer, Michele Cash, Christopher Balch|
| || NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center,  University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)|
| ||Over the past decade, an influx of new space weather observations and model guidance has become available for the Space Weather Prediction Center’s (SWPC) forecast office. These new capabilities and opportunities result from research advances and are driven by the continuing evolution of end-user needs. The tasks of integrating these new tools into operations relies on the combined efforts of researchers, developers, and forecasters at SWPC and in collaboration with external partners. In this talk, we will briefly describe a few lessons learned during the successful integration of observations from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) and the Van Allen Probes mission, and guidance from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-Enlil, Geospace, and the joint NOAA-USGS Geoelectric map models. We will also highlight the importance of data quality and model verification efforts from the forecaster and end-user perspectives. Finally, we will examine trends within the terrestrial meteorological community’s support to their end-users and implications for the space weather enterprise.
|11:50||Tuesday's User oriented plenary session summary||Glover, A et al.||Oral|
| ||Alexi Glover, Peter Thorn|
| ||Summary of the plenary session 'Working with Space Weather Services, Now and in the Future'|
|12:00||Panel Discussion - Jesse Andries, Alexa Halford, Michael Hesse, Rob Steenburgh, Manuela Temmer, Kirco Arsov||Bingham, S et al.||Oral|
| ||Suzy Bingham, Sophie Murray|
| ||Panel discussion on Space Weather Operations and Services|
|1||Operational Flare Forecasting -- Performance Comparisons||Leka, K et al.||p-Poster|
| ||KD Leka[1,2] and the Benchmarks for Solar Flare Forecasts Team*|
| || NWRA;  Nagoya University / ISEE|
| ||Through the Institute for Sun-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE) in Nagoya, Japan, a group representing the present operational flare forecasts which presently run at different sites around the world asked two questions: (1) "How well do operational flare forecasting methods presently work?" and (2) "What is needed to quantitatively answer that question to begin with?" We present here the results from that recent workshop, "Benchmarks for Operational Solar Flare Forecasts" held in late 2017. Numerous operational methods (including NOAA/SWPC, MetOffice, NICT, Mag-4, ASAP, ASSA, A-EFFORT, BoM/FlareForecast, ASSA, AMOS, DAFFS, and MCSTAT) were tested in a head-to-head performance exercise. Results are quantified using standard validation metrics, with a preference for metrics based on the probabilistic forecasts (rather than categorical results which are impacted by probability thresholds). We discuss how to best assess the relative performance of different methods, and present an analysis of general method attributes, addressing questions centered on "which approaches lead to improvement in operational performance, and which approaches do not?"
Support for the workshop and this analysis is acknowledged from the Nagoya University/ISEE Center for International Collaborative Research (CICR).
The "Benchmarks for Solar Flare Forecasts Team" presently consists of: K.D. Leka, S. H. Park, Kanya Kusano, Jesse Andries, Chris Balch, G. Barnes, Suzy Bingham, Shaun Bloomfield, Aoife McCloskey, David Falconer, Manolis Georgoulis, Ju Jing, Yuki Kubo, Kangjin Lee, Sangwoo Lee, M. Leila Mays, JunChul Mun, Sophie Murray, Tarek A.M. Hamad Nageem, Rami Qahwaji, Michael Sharpe, Rob Steenburgh, Graham Steward, Mike Terkildsen
|2||Space Weather Courses, SWeC ||Vanlommel, P et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Petra Vanlommel, Tiera Laitinen, Peter Thorn, Bert Van den Oord|
| || STCE;  FMI;  Met Office;  KNMI|
| ||Europe’s leading space weather service centres offer a training program to businesses vulnerable to space weather.
Sporadic and massive eruptions of very high-energy matter and radiation from the Sun can have a pronounced impact on businesses involving navigation, communication and transport of energy. In extreme cases, these eruptions pose a safety risk to human health. Periods of solar activity are generally referred to as solar storms, as part of the changing conditions in space called space weather .
The training program offers a ‘Space Weather Introductory Course - SWIC’ which can be extended with modules tailored to the needs and business of the participants. The course will be adapted to the level of the participants. The program focusses on gaining knowledge by fact-learning, hands-on sessions and exercises. It can include a visit to the beating heart of our service centres and a ‘Meet & Greet' with our product and application development staff and researchers. SWeC has the tools to evaluate the participants and can provide an examination certificate.
This service is based upon the expertise gained through scientific research, involvement in space missions and space weather monitoring, and forecasting capabilities. The courses are given by qualified staff.
SWeC for meteo operators, by STCE, RNAF, KNMI, May 2017, https://events.oma.be/indico/event/28/
SWeC for STCE meteo operators, for civil aviation, by STCE, Dec 2017/Jan 2018, http://www.stce.be/presentations/PECASUS/
SWeC for space weather operators, by FMI, May 2018.
SWeC for RNAF meteo operators, by STCE, RNAF, KNMI, June 2018, https://events.oma.be/indico/event/54/
SWeC for RNAF and KNMI meteo operators, by STCE, RNAF, KNMI, Nov 2018
|3||Solar flare forecasting using photospheric active region properties||Falco, M et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Mariachiara Falco, Paolo Romano|
| || INAF - Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, 95123, Catania (Italy)|
| ||We describe the results obtained by a tool developed for the solar flare forecasting on the base of photospheric active region properties. Using the daily observation of the photosphere performed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF- Catania Astrophysical Observatory, we collect information about the characteristics of the active region appearing on the solar disc since January 2002 in order to provide an indication of the probability that a sunspot group may host solar flares of C-, M- and X- class. By means of a linear combination of five parameters describing each sunspot group (area, Zurich class, number of pores and sunspots, relative importance between leading spot and density of the sunspot population, type of penumbra of the main sunspot), we determine the probability percentages for each class that a flare occurs in such active region sojourning on the disk. Comparing our forecasts with the number of flares registered by GOES satellites in the 1 - 8 Å X-ray band during the subsequent 24 hrs we calculated standard verification statistics for our method.|
|4||Solar cosmic ray dose rate assessments during GLE 72 using MIRA and PANDOCA||Matthiä, D et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Daniel Matthiä, Kyle Copeland, Matthias M. Meier|
| || German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Aerospace Medicine, Cologne, Germany;  Numerical Sciences Research Team, Protection and Survival Laboratory, FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute, 6500 S. MacArthur Blvd., Oklahoma City, OK 73169, U.S.A.|
| ||Exposure from cosmic radiation at aviation altitudes can be elevated during solar energetic particle events compared to the omnipresent galactic cosmic ray background. The largest of these events can be measured on ground as so-called Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). GLE 72, which occurred 10 Sept. 2017, was the more recent of the two solar particle induced ground level enhancements in solar cycle 24 in which GLEs have been unusually rare. Larger GLEs can significantly increase ionizing radiation dose rates at aviation altitudes for hours to days, leading to concern among crewmembers. One way to provide real time monitoring and preliminary evaluation of solar particle events (SPEs), including GLEs, in regard to effective dose rates at aviation altitudes is to use real time measurements of the cosmic ray intensity, for instance GOES proton measurements, in combination with numerical models for the calculation of radiation exposure at aviation altitudes. In this work, the PANDOCA and MIRA models which have been developed for this purpose are compared. PANDOCA has been developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and can be applied both to galactic cosmic radiation and solar energetic particle events. MIRA is based on CARI-7A and part of the latest Solar Radiation Alert System (SRAS) of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. For GLE 72, the models consistently predict increases in the radiation exposure at aviation altitudes, i.e. below 50000 ft, which were on the order of or below the galactic cosmic ray background. Increases in dose rate were limited to high latitudes as the primary solar particles were strongly suppressed by the geomagnetic shielding.|
|5||Progress with VOEvent implementation as alerts protocol in RWC Warsaw||Tomasik, L et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Łukasz Tomasik,Mariusz Pożoga,Barbara Matyjasiak, Beata Dziak-Jankowska|
| || Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences|
| ||The Regional Warning Centers objective is to provide real time forecasting and monitoring of the Space Weather in the framework of ISES community. Polish RWC Warsaw mets this task through the web based communication channels like http and email protocols based on traditional URSI codes. In the EUROPLANET RI H2020 programme was proposed to use an VOEvent protocol as a transport layer for reporting RWC observations/events/alerts.
This paper presents short information about accessing and reproducing RWC Warsaw VOEvent messages. It also gives information about proposed and used dictionary, and presents archive of past VOEvents shared by the VESPA Dachs platform.
|6||Validating the background solar wind using the EUHFORIA model||Temmer, M et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Manuela Temmer, Stephan Heinemann, Jürgen Hinterreiter, Jasmina Magdalenic, Immanuel Jebaraj, Christine Verbeke, Stefaan Poedts, Jens Pomoell, Camilla Scolini, Luciano Rodriguez, Emili Kilpua, and Eleanna Asvestari|
| ||The EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) model will be the next generation of CME propagation tools, simulating the evolution of coronal mass ejections with magnetic field in a realistic solar wind environment. Within the international project CCSOM (Constraining CMEs and Shocks by Observations and Modelling throughout the inner heliosphere) led by SIDC [http://sidc.be/ccsom/], the model is validated and improved. We show the testing and validation of the performance of the background solar wind and assess its reliability.
We validate the modeled background solar wind by comparing the results to in-situ measurements, in order to make EUHFORIA ready for scientific exploitation and operational space weather purposes. For this several established test methods are applied on i) continuous variables of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters (speed, density, pressure, Bz), and ii) binary variables based on specific events such as the arrival time and impact speed of solar wind high speed streams (HSS). We present statistical results covering times of low (2008) and high (2012) solar activity.|
|7||Evaluation and Comparison of Geomagnetic Activity Forecasts||Clarke, E et al.||p-Poster|
| ||John Williamson, Ellen Clarke and Sarah Reay|
| ||British Geological Survey|
| ||Geomagnetic activity forecasts of various types are provided by the British Geological Survey (BGS), these include categorical, human-derived forecasts of up to three days ahead as well as computer-derived time-series predictions of global and local daily (Ap and DRX) and global 3-hourly (ap) indices. Users of these include institutes acting on behalf of government, space agencies concerned with thermospheric models of satellite drag, power companies interested in warning of possible geomagnetically induced currents, oil and gas companies involved in directional drilling and aurora borealis enthusiasts.
This work builds on previous derivation of the equitable skill score metrics, which were used to evaluate the BGS categorical forecasts from the 1990s to 2013 (Clarke & Thomson, 2013). From 2014 a change to the forecast categories was made and predictions of a global maximum level as well as the global average, were included. Evaluation of the forecasts following this change has been carried out and the results are presented here.
Forecast accuracies, using appropriate metrics in each case, are evaluated and comparisons are presented between the various prediction methods – forecasting team and computer algorithms, as well as over time and against standard benchmarks. The forecasting skill with respect to geomagnetic activity level and the phase of the solar cycle is also discussed.
Reference: E. Clarke and A. W. P. Thomson, Forecast Evaluation as Applied to Geomagnetic Activity Categories, ESWW10 Oral Presentation, 2013. www.stce.be/esww10/contributions/public/talks/Session12/05-ClarkeEllen/Clarke_ForecastVerification.pdf
|8||Database and services for space weather from the Italian ground geomagnetic observatory network||Di mauro, D et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Di Mauro D., Bagiacchi P., Santarelli L.|
| || Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy|
| ||The Italian geomagnetic observatories, managed by INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), are collected and stored in a MySQL database. The database is in operation since ten years and it is implemented on an local server which serves also as web portal for the data display and distribution, at the URL address: http://geomag.rm.ingv.it/index.php. The database has been completely revised, restructured and implemented with new functions and facilities for the users, improving the automatic data manipulation. The web data portal site allows the downloading of data in various formats over a time interval defined by the user and automatically generates, on request, the monthly bulletins of the observatory selected, with local K index. The K indices are calculated automatically using the software distributed by Intermagnet consortium, Kasm, which uses the adaptive smoothing method, extensively tested with success over decades from the IAGA community. A real-time estimate of local K index is provided for the current day and their collection is used for the production of bulletins. Finally, the implementation of an algorithm for the classification of the geomagnetic activity conditions and of real-time alerting for their anomalous variations are explained and shown their reliable application in the frame of the space weather services. This product is inserted in Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services (PECASUS).|
|9||SWAMI: Steps to put MOWA into operations||Negrín serrano, S et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Sandra Negrin, Sean Bruinsma, David Jackson, Claudia Stolle|
| ||Deimos Space, CNES, Met Office, GFZ Postdam|
| ||The SWAMI project objectives are three-fold:
OB1) To develop a model of the whole atmosphere (MOWA) with a science as well as operations-focused approach. Two existing models of the atmosphere, the UM and the DTM, will be extended and blended to produce this unique new whole atmosphere model, which shall provide estimates of both climatology and space weather variability. The model will be validated against observations and other models. An operational tool for satellite re-entry and launch applications shall be developed based on the whole atmosphere model, the MOWA Climatological Model (MCM) with a specification guided by consultation with relevant users.
OB2) To provide new high-cadence geomagnetic Kp-indices, including its nowcast and predictions to be used in the UM and DTM. These products are equally useful for a wide range of space weather services that rely on rapid geomagnetic activity specification.
OB3) To develop steps, including provision of software, model output, or data sharing facilities, to transition the improved model system into operations. A set of acceptance criteria, for example regarding robustness of model code, or near-real-time processing of data and delivery of forecasts, shall be defined and should be met to ensure that the model system can be considered ready for operational use.
This poster will show an overview the project and the steps to put MOWA into operations.
|10||Catalogs of solar energetic protons, electrons and the related radio emissions in solar cycles 23 and 24 ||Miteva, R et al.||p-Poster|
| ||R. Miteva, S. W. Samwel, V. Krupar[3,4,5] and D. Danov|
| || Space Research and Technology Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences  National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Cairo, Egypt  Universities Space Research Association, 21046 Columbia, Maryland, USA  NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 20771 Greenbelt, Maryland, USA  Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, 14131 Prague, Czech Republic|
| ||The availability of comprehensive catalogs of space weather events - in terms of solar energetic particles (SEPs) - is a necessary requirement for testing the performance of any forecasting model. We present catalogs of Wind/EPACT and SOHO/ERNE proton together with ACE/EPAM DE electron events observed in situ in the period from 1996 to the end of 2017. Multi-energy analysis is completed where possible. In addition, as a complementary verification tool, we compiled a catalog of radio emission (in terms of type II, III and IV radio bursts and single-frequency records) as signatures of the solar origin of these SEP events: flares and coronal mass ejections. We discuss the statistical trends of the particle data in terms of energy, longitude and solar cycle dependencies together with our efforts towards the correct solar origin identification of the SEP events.|
|11||The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre – Part 2||Poedts, S et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Stefaan Poedts, Andrey Kochanov and Andrea Lani, Herman Deconinck, Nicolae Mmihalache and Fabien Diet, Daniel Heynderickx, Johan De Keyser, Erwin De Donder, Norma B. Crosby and Marius Echim, Luciano Rodriguez, Freek Verstringe, Robbe Vansintjan and Benjamin Mampaey, Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert and John Isles, Piers Jiggens, Ralf Keil, Alexi Glover, Alain Hilgers and Juha-Pekka Luntama|
| || the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Prime Contractor, coordinator: Prof. S. Poedts);  the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB);  the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB);  the Von Karman Institute (VKI);  DH Consultancy (DHC);  Space Applications Services (SAS);  British Antarctic Survey (BAS);  ESA. |
| ||The goal of the ESA ITT project AO-1-8384-15-1-NB VSWMC-Part 2 is to further develop the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC), building on the Phase 1 prototype system and focusing on the interaction with the ESA SSA SWE system. The objective and scopes of this project include:
1. The efficient integration of new models and new model couplings, including a first demonstration of an end-to-end simulation capability.
2. The further development and wider use of the coupling toolkit and the front-end GUI which will be designed to be accessible via the SWE Portal.
3. Availability of more accessible input and output data on the system and development of integrated visualization tool modules.
The consortium that took up this challenge involves: 1) the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Prime Contractor, coordinator: Prof. S. Poedts); 2) the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB); 3) the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB); 4) the Von Karman Institute (VKI); 5) DH Consultancy (DHC); 6) Space Applications Services (SAS); 7) British Antarctic Survey (BAS).
The VSWMC-Part 2 project started on 17 February 2016. At the time of the ESWW15 meeting, Phase 2 will be finished, which means that all models (EUHFORIA, CTIM, CTAN2, BAS-RBM, COOLFluiD, GUMICS, etc.) and model couplings will be installed and operational in the VSWMC. Hence, it will be demonstrated how easy the models can be run and how easy model couplings can be set up and used. For instance, EUHFORIA can be run and coupled to Gumics-4 and Geo-effects models (Kp-index, bow shock stand-off idstance,…). Moreover, visualization tools are installed as models and can thus be coupled to the models to get directly plots and/or video’s as output of a run.
The VSWMC system is being developed under ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme and is intended to become an operational system as part of the ESA SSA SWE system.
|12||The H2020 project SWAMI activity: high cadence global geomagnetic index||Kervalishvili, G et al.||p-Poster|
| ||G.N. Kervalishvili, C. Stolle, J. Matzka, and J. Rauberg|
| ||GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany|
| ||Global geomagnetic indices are widely used to successfully parameterize geomagnetic activity, e.g., for data analyses and for physical and empirical models of the near-Earth space environment. They are also highly important to characterize the geomagnetic disturbance level as part of space weather services. Probably the most applied index is the 3-hourly Kp index derived and disseminated by GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences).
Within the framework of the H2020 project SWAMI (Space Weather Atmosphere Model and Indices) funded by the European Commission new global geomagnetic indices (Hp90, Hp60 and Hp30) are developed that are based on geomagnetic observatory data and algorithms applied to calculate the 3-hourly Kp index. Here, 90, 60 and 30 denotes the Hp index temporal resolutions in minutes. These indices are expected to provide improved information, such as the better determination of onset and duration of geomagnetic activity.
In this study, we investigate observations during September 2017 including strong geomagnetic storm events on the 7th to 8th of September 2017. We compare the evolution of the traditional 3-hourly Kp index and the new global high cadence geomagnetic indices, Hp90, Hp60 and Hp30, as well as their relation to ionospheric or solar wind parameters. The advantages and integrity of the different indices are inter-compared and judged. Their integrity with the traditional Kp-index in terms of magnitude and statistical distribution are discussed.
During the course of the SWAMI project, successfully derived Hp indices will be reconstructed back in time to 1995, from when on contributing observatories provide digital 1-minute data. These indices will be made publically available.|
|13||A new website showing past, present and upcoming solar activity||Illarionov, E et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Egor Illarionov[1,3], Andrey Tlatov[2,3]|
| || Moscow State University,  Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station,  Kalmyk State University|
| ||Daily solar observations generate dozens of gigabytes of data. Together with historical archives it composes an enormous amount of information. We selected one of the most valuable part of it, which is traces of solar activity, mapped it on 3D model of the Sun and made available at www.observethesun.com. Playing with the model, one can observe current solar activity and its changes during the past 100 years. One can find sunspots (1918 – present), plages (from 1907), filaments and prominences (1919 – present), coronal holes, solar corona and variety of solar activity indices. Everything can be downloaded in just one click for detailed research. Besides observational data, we also provide a forecast of upcoming solar activity. In the presentation we will show key features of the website and discuss methods of data processing.|
|14||Introducing SWERTO: a Regional Space Weather Service||Del moro, D et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Francesco Berrilli, Marco Casolino[1,2], Alice Cristaldi, Dario Del Moro, Roberta Forte, Luca Giovannelli, Matteo Martucci, Matteo Merge', Gianluca Napoletano, Livio Narici, Ermanno Pietropalo, Giuseppe Pucacco, Alessandro Rizzo, Stefano Scardigli, Roberta Sparvoli|
| || University of Rome "Tor Vergata",  RIKEN,  University of L'Aquila|
| ||The Space WEeatherR TOr vergata university (SWERTO) service is an operational Space Weather service based on data from space-based and ground-based instruments, located in the Physics Department of the University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy (UTOV).
The service is designed to promote the access to technical and scientific information by the regional industries whose technologies are sensible to Space Weather effects and allows registered users to access scientific data from instrumentation available to UTOV researchers through national and international collaborations. To non-registered users, it provides a quick-look interface (spaceweather.roma2.infn.it) for the selection and visualization of such data and the visualization of the forecast for flare probability and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) fluxes from prototype codes.
The SWERTO database contains data on particles fluxes from the space missions ALTEA and PAMELA, and high-resolution and full disk spectro-polarimetric solar data. The solar data are related to solar Active Regions, observed at high resolution with the IBIS (Interferometric BIdimensional Spectropolarimeter) instrument, and full disk Line-of-Sight Doppler and magnetic field at different heights in the solar atmosphere, observed with the MOTH-I telescope.
SWERTO main goals are: i) design and realize a data-base with the particle fluxes recorded by the space missions and with the spectropolarimetric measurement of the solar photosphere; ii) allow an Open Access to the data-base and to prototype forecast to regional industries involved and exposed to Space Weather effects; iii) implement a tutorial and a FAQ section to help decision makers to realize and evaluate the risks from Space Weather events; iv) outreach and customer products. SWERTO has been financed by the Regione Lazio FILAS-RU-2014-1028 grant.|
|15||Advances in space weather products development based on PROBA-V/EPT data and their quality assurance||Borisov, S et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Stanislav Borisov, Sylvie Benck and Mathias Cyamukungu|
| ||Center for Space Radiations, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, (UCL/ELI/CSR), Place Louis Pasteur, 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org)|
| ||The satellite PROBA-V with the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on-board was launched on 7th May 2013 onto a Low Earth Orbit of 820 km altitude and 98.7° inclination. By design the EPT provides uncontaminated fluxes of electrons (0.5–8 MeV), protons (9.5–300 MeV) and α-particles (38–1200 MeV) gathered from a well-defined field of view assured by a set of coincidences within the instrument. The measurements are conducted continuously with 2 s time resolution and transmitted on-ground 3 times per day, where within several hours they are processed till high-level scientific data products including:
- flux time series along the orbit (L1);
- weekly flux world maps and average spectra encountered in SAA and outer belt at 820 km altitude (polar LEO);
- static radiation model for covered region of magnetosphere;
- flux time series on a regular B-L grid (L2);
- up to 4 day ahead radiation environment prediction.
The first 3 types of products are available at the ESA SSA-SWE portal (SSA Space Weather, Expert Service Center Space Radiation).
This presentation will focus on the quality assurance of the data: nominal calibration, recalibration, filtering and comparison to other measurements. Examples of data products will also be shown.|
|16||Evaluating Auroral Forecasts against Satellite Observations||Mooney, M et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Michaela. K. Mooney, Mike Marsh, Colin Forsyth, Teresa Hughes, Michael Sharpe, Suzy Bingham|
| || Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, UK  Met Office, UK|
| ||During periods of high geomagnetic activity, particles precipitating into the upper atmosphere can cause auroral emission and affect long-range radio communications, whilst the accompanying geomagnetic storm could potentially induce strong currents in oil pipelines and electricity transmission lines at ground level. These effects may impact industry sectors such as aviation, energy and defense. Forecasting the location and probability of aurora is therefore of interest to many end users. In addition, forecasting when the aurora may be visible can also be a key tool in promoting public awareness and engagement with space weather.
The OVATION Prime-2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014) is currently in operation at the UK Met Office and delivers a 30-minute forecast of the probability of observing the aurora in the polar regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. Using techniques developed for terrestrial weather forecast verification, we evaluate the performance of this operational implementation of OVATION against the boundaries of auroral emission regions determined by the far-ultraviolet (FUV) observations of the auroral oval captured by the IMAGE satellite over the period 2000-2002.|
|17||Why is some probabilistic forecast system not reliable?||Kubo, Y et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Yûki Kubo|
| ||National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Japan|
| ||In operational space weather forecasting, there are two (or more) kinds of forecasting types. One is a deterministic forecast, and another is probabilistic forecast. As it is hard to forecast deterministically the occurrence of the space weather events, the forecast should be a probabilistic one. One of the most important attribute for a probabilistic forecast is reliability. Reliability for probabilistic forecast means a coincidence between issued probability and event occurrence frequency given probability. However, operational probabilistic forecast systems have sometimes lack of reliability. Why does the probabilistic forecast system have lack of reliability? In this presentation, we will show that one of the reason of this is related with the strategy of adjustment, training, or calibration of the probabilistic forecast systems.|
|18||Development of services related to space weather effects on aviation||Fiori, R et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Robyn A. D. Fiori|
| ||Canadian Space Weather Forecast Center, Natural Resources Canada|
| ||Bursts of enhanced electron density in the ionospheric D-region due to photoionization by radiation
and solar energetic particles leads to the increased absorption of radio signals, potentially causing
a loss of high frequency radio communication in affected regions. Absorption is of particular concern
at high-latitudes as the ionospheric disturbances are more intense in these regions. The need for
reliable space weather services at high-latitudes has also increased because of the greater number
of flights using transpolar routes. There are well-established relationships used for monitoring
and modelling of auroral absorption and polar cap absorption and absorption due to shortwave fadeout.
These relationships are examined using the Natural Resources Canada riometer network, which provides a
unique opportunity to study absorption over a wide spread in latitude (45.4° to 82.5°) for a 90° band
of longitude. Improvements are suggested which will provide better estimates of absorption and its
duration above threshold levels anticipated to impact HF radio communication.|
|19||Developing Cloud Computing based platform for the Ionospheric segment of the Space Weather domain – (SW Telltale)||Dziak-jankowska, B et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Beata Dziak-Jankowska, Marcin Gil, Anna Kamińska, Michał Olszewski, Mariusz Pożoga, Łukasz Tomasik|
| || Space Research Centre PAS,  Cloud Ferro,  Creotech Instruments|
| ||The SW Telltale project objective is to test possible cloud optimisation of processing and sharing large amount of data generated in the Space Weather activities. This paper presents current state of the work based on exampled ionospheric research, and shows the SW Telltale engine advantages like easy provider data sharing, and fast computing using cloud computing perks. |
|20||Earth's Radiation Environment during February 14 - March 5, 2014 as Represented by Operational Services of SMDC MSU||Kalegaev, V et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Vladimir Kalegaev, Irina Myagkova, Yulia Shugai, Natalia Vlasova, Wera Barinova, Evgenia Beresneva, Sergey Bobrovnikov, Valery Eremeev, Sergey Dolenko, Ilya Nazarkov, Minh D. Nguyen|
| ||Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia|
| ||Space weather effects taking place in the Earth’s magnetosphere have been studied during period of high level solar and geomagnetic activity on 14 February – 5 March, 2014 based on operational services developed at Space Monitoring Data Center (SMDC) of Moscow State University. Informational resources of this Data Center include satellite databases and operational models devoted to collect, store and process monitoring data in the near-real time. SMDC operational services acquire data from ACE, SDO, GOES, Electro-L, Meteor-M satellites and use them for forecasting, now-casting and post-casting of the radiation and geomagnetic conditions in the near-Earth’s space. Solar sources of interplanetary space disturbances and their influence on geomagnetic and radiation state of the Earth’s magnetosphere are described based on the data obtained from SMDC Web-based applications. Validation of the operational models developed at SMDC was performed based on the quality of description of the physical conditions in the near-Earth’s space during series of events on 14 February – 5 March, 2014.|
|21||Solar wind and CME prediction with an improved operational Enlil Prediction System||Gonzi, S et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Siegfried Gonzi, David Jackson, Emily Down, Carl J. Henney|
| || Met Office, UK,  AFRL/Space Vehicles Directorate, KAFB, USA|
| ||At the Met Office we use GONG magnetograph observations every two hours to update the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. The WSA fields are in turn used as inner boundary conditions (at 21.5 solar radii) for our Enlil MHD solar wind prediction model. While observed CMEs are input into Enlil separate to the WSA fields, it is equally important to get the background solar wind right for forecasting the arrival time of CMEs at Earth. There are inaccuracies in these background winds that arise from both the empirical formulation of the WSA model and the way in which the GONG data are incorporated into WSA. Recently this has been addressed using the ADAPT model, which assimilates GONG and other magnetographs using an Ensemble Least Squares Technique which both attempts use the observations in a physically more consistent manner and which produces a 12-member ensemble of initial fields that are used to drive Enlil.
In this presentation we examine whether this new approach of running 12 ADAPT ensemble realisations with Enlil gives better results than our operational WSA Enlil forecasts. We compare and validate our solar wind model forecasts with observations at L1 and also discuss if ADAPT-WSA-Enlil could be used at the Met Office as a replacement for our existing operational forecasting system.|
|22||Model validation in the context of space weather applications||Zheng, Y et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Y. Zheng, T. P. O’Brien, Y. Shprits[3,4], A. Kellerman, Y. Yu, V. Jordanova, M.-C. Fok, S.-B. Kang, L. Rastaetter, M. M. Kuznetsova|
| || NASA/GSFC,  Aerospace Corporation,  GFZ German Research Center,  UCLA,  Beihang Univ,  LANL, NASA/GSFC/CUA|
| ||In order to make space environment models more useful to the engineering and space weather operation community, efforts to validate a model’s ability to produce the most pertinent quantities required for impact assessment must be carried out. The >10 keV electron flux has been identified as a key physical quantity (along with electron density and temperature) that is closely correlated with surface charging effects, while the 1 MeV or even higher energy (>2 MeV) electron flux are the quantities most closely related to internal charging effects (or the induced current density exceeds >100 fA/cm^2 behind 100 mils aluminum shielding). In this paper, model results from the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) run-on-request services will be shown and the models’ performance in portraying the particle dynamics/environment that is relevant to these two types of charging effects will be evaluated. This endeavor, part of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects working team efforts, (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation-all.php) will be joined by other participating models/model developers from the community. Such validation work will help in tracking the progress/performance of the models that deal with the radiation and plasma effects on space assets.
|23||A Novel Space Weather Service: the HelioMet Center||Casti, M et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Marta Casti, Roberto Susino, Fabio Filippi, Daniele Telloni, Angelo Fabio Mulone, Ester Antonucci, Rosario Messineo, Alessandro Bemporad, Filomena Solitro, Silvano Fineschi, Gianalfredo Nicolini, Enrico Magli, Tomas Bjorklund, Antonio Volpicelli, Michele Martino|
| ||ALTEC S.p.A., INAF - Astrophysical Observatory of Torino, Politecnico di Torino|
| ||Severe solar events have serious impacts on the modern society: space-weather risks affect a large amount of technologies, increasing our vulnerability. In order to shield society against the potential damaging effects, an international effort is needed to improve their forecast and to provide an efficient alert service.
In this context, we started the HelioMet Center project, which is the result of the synergy between the Aerospace Logistics Technology Engineering Company (ALTEC S.p.A.) and the INAF (Italian National Institute for Astrophysics) Astrophysical Observatory of Torino, both located in Turin, Italy. The main goal of this project is to provide space-weather medium-term and short-term forecast, by combining scientific research with engineering inventiveness.
The HelioMet Center combines remote-sensing and in situ open data relevant to the Sun, the Heliosphere, and the Earth’s Magnetosphere with novel data analysis technologies, giving to scientists the possibility of designing, implementing, and validating space-weather algorithms using extensive datasets.
In the first implementation presented here, the HelioMet Center consists of two data analysis pipelines. The first one automatically identifies the occurrence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in remote-sensing data, propagates them from the Sun to the Earth through a heliospheric Parker’s spiral reconstructed with in situ data, and provides their predicted arrival times at 1 AU. The second one identifies the transit of magnetic clouds in L1 thanks to sophisticated analyses of solar-wind data acquired in situ, and provides a short-term alert on the possible impact of CMEs on the Earth.
The data flow of the HelioMet Center pipelines have been designed in order to fulfill the constraint of real-time delivery of forecast services. Moreover, data model conversion, metadata organization, and data normalization have been structured to create data products compliant with the international standards like SPASE. Lastly, a user-friendly web interface makes data and their analysis available to the final users.
This work describes in detail the structure, the algorithms, the results, and the future perspectives of the HelioMet Center.|
|24||Space Weather services from SeNMEs focused on Carrington-like events||Guerrero, A et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Guerrero Antonio, Cid Consuelo, Saiz Elena|
| || Space Weather Group, Physics and Mathematics Department, University of Alcala(UAH)|
| ||The SWE (Space Weather) research group at UAH (University of Alcala) offers through the Spanish Space Weather services, SeNMEs (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología Espacial), products specially designed with Carrington-like events in mind. The detection, modeling, prediction and forecasting of this type of events are still not well understood. The 1859 Carrington event has many unknown features due to lack of resources at the time,and this fact makes difficult to even define what Carrington-like events might be.
Furthermore, users need to be close to service providers in order to know and understand their own needs but this is not always possible due to lack of awareness. In this work we set forth this scenario and present our experience dealing with it using the September, 2017 event as an use case among others.|
|25||Monitoring and predicting HF circumstances for specialized services||Stanislawska, I et al.||p-Poster|
| ||I. Stanislawska, L. Perrone, A.Ippolito, D. Sabbagh, C. Scotto, L. Tomasik, A. Zalizovsky[1,3]|
| || Space Research Centre PAS, 00-716 Warsaw, Bartycka 18a, Poland,  Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata, 605, 00143 Roma,Italy,  Institute of Radio Astronomy, N A S, 4, Mystectv str., 61002 Kharkiv, Ukraine|
| ||Since the start of the HF radio-communication people recognized how
important is the impact of solar activity in near-Earth space and in our
upper atmosphere now called space weather. The PECASUS[*] consortium was
created in response to the call from the International Civil Aviation
Organisation (ICAO) to create a Global Space Weather Information Service.
Among the many methods used for aids and assistance, permanent monitoring
and forecasting have proven to be very efficient and now for aviation
services for instance almost necessary.
The aim of this presentation is thus to bring together methods, models in
different approaches presented by two European groups in order to
established unified both theoretical and observational results addressing
services to specialized HF user like aviation.
[*] Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services|
|26||On the generation of probabilistic forecasts from deterministic models||Camporeale, E et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Enrico Camporeale, Xiangning Chu, Oleksiy Agapitov, Jacob Bortnik|
| ||Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Dept., UCLA, Space Sciences Laboratory, UCB|
| ||Space Weather forecasts need to be probabilistic, in order to be used in a decision-making scenario.
However, most of the model used by the space weather community are completely deterministic, and provide a single-point estimate of the quantity of interest. Generating a probabilistic forecast from single-point predictions is a non-trivial task. Often, an ensemble of models or predictions is used for deriving confidence errors, but this approach is expensive and error-prone.
In this work we propose a simple method to derive probabilistic forecast from single-point predictions without the need of generating an ensemble, using machine learning.
Practical example applied to radiation belt plasma parameters are shown. |
|27||Combining data by means of data assimilation to provide now-cast, forecast and reanalysis of the near Earth radiation environment||Shprits, Y et al.||p-Poster|
| ||Yuri Shprits[1,2], Kondrashov, Dmitri, Janet Green, Ivanka Pelivan, Juan Sebastian Cervantes Villa|
| ||GFZ, UCLA, Space Hazards|
| ||Observations of the damaging ionizing radiation are usually limited to locations of a few available spacecraft that carry radiation instruments. Interpolating between the available measurement points and combining data from different spacecraft’s on different orbits with different instrumental errors and limited energies to obtain the global state of the radiation environment is a challenging task. Data assimilation can help blend space in energy and space observations with different observational errors with physics based models to reconstruct the global state of the radiation belts and calculate fluences on any given orbit. Data assimilation can also help issue most accurate prediction into the future as it provides most accurate current state of the system. Reanalysis using Kalman smoothing can help analyses the previous state of the system and find the cause of anomalies. Such global predictions can be coupled with engineering tools allowing for the estimation of effects on particular satellite systems as done by SATCAT project. ||