Session 4 - Aviation Meets Space Weather - Roadmap Towards Space Weather Services for Aviation

Marcin Latocha (Seibersdorf Laboratories), Erwin De Donder (BIRA-IASB)
Monday 5/11, 15:45-17:15
MTC 01.03

We aim to enhance a roadmap for a space weather service for aviation. We emphasize user-oriented approach intending to present user needs, practical user’s solutions for dealing with space weather effects, recommendations and legal regulations, and current trends in aviation operation due to space weather. We invite pilots, flight dispatchers, airline operators, aviation organizations, regulatory bodies, engineers and scientists to support dialog between users and service developers.

KEYWORDS - Services for aviation, space weather effects on aviation, radiation, radiation protection, avionics errors, ionospheric disturbances, aircraft communication and navigation signals

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Talks : Time schedule

Monday November 5, 15:45 - 17:15, MTC 01.03

15:45	PECASUS, a European Space Weather Service Network for Aviation	Kauristie, K et al.	Oral
	Kirsti Kauristie[1], Jesse Andries[2], Nicolas Bergeot[2], Peter Beck[3], David Berghmans[2], Claudio Cesaroni[4], Norma Crosby[2], Erwin De Donder[2], Mark Dierckxsens[2], Mark Gibbs[5], Haris Haralambous[6], Ari-Matti Harri[1], Marcin Latocha[3], Loredana Perrone[4], Vincenzo Romano[4], Leonardo Sagnotti[4], Luca Spogli[4], Iwona Stanislawska[7], Peter Thorn[5], Lukasz Tomasik[7], Bert van den Oord[8], Petra Vanlommel[2], Volker Wilken[9], Martin Kriegel[9] and Kari Österberg[1]
	[1]Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; [2]Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, Belgium; [3]Seibersdorf Labor GmbH, Austria; [4]Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy; [5]UK Met Office, United Kingdom; [6]Frederick University, Cyprus; [7]Centrum Badan Kosmiccznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk (SRC), Poland; [8]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the Netherlands; [9]Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Germany
	The PECASUS[*] consortium was created in response to the call from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to provide a Global Space Weather Information Service. The requested service focuses on the dissemination of warning messages ('advisories') towards aviation actors and corresponds to extreme space weather events with impact on aviation GNSS systems, HF communication and radiation levels at flight altitudes. The PECASUS team was set-up as a consortium bringing together a number of European partners with proven space weather service capabilities. The PECASUS consortium is coordinated by FMI (Finland) who is also the ultimate responsible for communications towards the aviation sector. The Advisory Messages are produced by STCE (Belgium) on the basis of expert interpretation and data streams produced by DLR (Germany), INGV (Italy), Seibersdorf Laboratories (Austria), STCE (Belgium), SRC (Poland) and FU (Cyprus). In addition, the MetOffice (UK) will act as a resilience node in case of a major failure in the network, while the KNMI (The Netherlands) will take care of user liaison and monitor the PECASUS performance. The PECASUS team has been audited by a team from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and found to be fully compliant with the ICAO requirements. At the time of this writing, the ICAO selection process has not been completed. In this talk, we will describe the ICAO specifications for a space weather service, the PECASUS network and the vision of the PECASUS team to move forward. Particular attention will be spend on user interactions such as: education and training, user feedback at ESWW, product and performance verification. [*] Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services
16:10	Smartphone-Based Network for Measurements of Atmospheric Radiation Levels	Clewer, B et al.	Oral
	Benjamin Clewer, Keith Ryden, Alex Dyer, Alex Hands, David Jackson
	University of Surrey, Met Office
	A new integrated system of small, handheld, smartphone connected radiation detectors that can be carried on aircraft to monitor and record the atmospheric radiation levels at aviation altitudes is being developed. Being able to accurately quantify radiation levels within the Earth's atmosphere during solar storm events is of significance to the aviation industry, as general public doses can exceed regulatory limits in one flight. Eventual roll-out of this system will enable the capability to quantify radiation flux levels during Solar Particle Events (SPEs) and Ground Level Events (GLEs) on a global basis The system intends to operate these detectors via a citizen science approach with willing public volunteers, or people working within the aviation industry, to record radiation data on routes as they travel for normal purposes. The detectors connect to a smartphone, running a specific application, which processes the incident radiation recorded and displays the relevant data to the user. The recorded flight data can then be uploaded to a server as part of wider database of flight radiation measurements. The end objective of the system is to provide the capability of a real time record of the atmospheric radiation flux which could be monitored by relevant organisations to minimise the radiation risk to flights in the event of a space weather event, as well as provide a historical record of radiation levels for individual flights, flight routes and geolocations around the Earth. The current status of development of the system is awaiting initial flight tests on the UK Met Office MOCCA aircraft and select commercial flights; further to this, ground calibration of the sensor against proved detectors will be conducted in the coming months. The smartphone application has been developed for Android devices and will be undergoing further testing before release to public volunteers. We intend to show data from a short series of aircraft flights to illustrate the system operation and provide a comparison to other instruments produced at the Surrey Space Centre: we also describe how the system could be used by aviation authorities, individuals or airlines to help track exposures from specific flights.
16:25	DISTURB: real-time solar spectrum monitoring from 10 to 3000 MHz	Brentjens, M et al.	Oral
	Michiel Brentjens[1], André Bos[2], Bert van den Oord[3], Willem-Pieter van der Laan[4]
	[1] ASTRON, [2] S&T, [3] KNMI, [4] RNLAF
	The DISTURB project is developing a real-time phased array solar radio spectrum monitor that can provide automated alerts when the solar radio flux exceeds relevant thresholds at frequencies between 10 MHz and 3 GHz. We develop this instrument with civilian aeronautical, scientific, as well as military users in mind, all of whom benefit from near-real-time, high quality information about beginning and ongoing solar radio burst (SRB) activity. To cover the enormous frequency range, DISTURB employs several phased array antenna systems, ensuring a sensitive, low-maintenance, and gracefully degrading system. We foresee three types of data products: A high resolution dynamic spectrum ($\sim$10 ms / 10 kHz resolution), A low resolution dynamic spectrum ($\sim$~1 s/ 1 MHz), and textual alerts. The antenna systems up to approximately 1.5 GHz are based on existing, proven designs produced for the LOFAR and SKA radio telescopes. The highest frequency system will likely need more development. We foresee a modular system in which multiple DISTURB stations deployed globally could provide 24/7, even better quality, near-real-time data by sharing the highest resolution data product they can output given their site's bandwidth restrictions. S&T and ASTRON are responsible for the design and construction of the instrument, while KNMI and RNLAF provide input from the point of view of potential users of the system. The initial design effort is in part funded by the Dutch Ministry of Defense.
16:40	HF-START: Radio Propagation Information Service for Aviation	Hozumi, K et al.	Oral
	Kornyanat Hozumi[1], Mamoru Ishii[1], Takuya Tsugawa[1], Susumu Saito[2], and Hiroyuki Nakata[3]
	[1] National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), Tokyo, Japan, [2] National Institute of Maritime, Port and Aviation Technology (ENRI), Tokyo, Japan, [3] Graduate School of Engineering, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
	Even though the aviation systems have been designed as self-contained systems to assess the safety easily, space weather disturbances are reported to limit availability of those systems. It is resulting from limited space weather and radio propagation information. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) meteorology expert group has reviewed space weather disturbances as large impacts on worldwide economic situation and safety issue. Taking the radio frequency into account, L band is extensively used by SATellite COMmunications (SATCOM), Global Positioning System (GPS) and GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS). SATCOM is getting popular but the SATCOM system itself is expensive. Moreover, GEO satellites are not visible in polar region. In low latitudes, ionospheric irregularity called plasma bubble frequently introduces scintillation on the passing through signal and causes failure on SATCOM. For navigation, ionospheric delay can be compensated by receiving two or more frequencies. However, only the L1 signals of GPS and GLONASS have been standardized by ICAO. VHF band is being used for navigation by VHF omni directional radio range (VOR) and communication by Air Traffic Control (ATC). By utilizing only line of sight path, effects from space weather disturbances could be trivial. HF, which would be the most classic band for aeronautical communications, is important means for airplanes on oceanic en-route and in polar routes. Moreover, worldwide radio stations are broadcasting meteorological information for aircraft in flight or VOLMET (French origin VOL (flight) and METEO (weather)) with frequencies in the range of 3–15 MHz. Day-to-day variation of bottom ionospheric structure strongly affects such frequency range. Space weather and ionospheric information is thus significant to aeronautical users, who deal with the critical radio applications. This paper introduces radio propagation tool, namely HF Simulator Targeting for All-users’ Regional Telecommunications (HF-START). Because HF-START is designed to link the research to operation (R2O), it translates the professional space weather and ionosphere information to the user-friendly radio propagation information for the space weather users. Although the HF-START has been being developed for HF band, VHF and L bands are planned to be covered regarding user’s needs. The web application will be prepared based on user’s needs. HF-START will start its service to the public hopefully by 2020.
16:55	Space-wx for airline pilots	Sievers, K et al.	Oral
	Klaus Sievers
	ECA (European Cockpit Association) , Brussels
	Where are we today ? Space-Wx has an influence on aviation: myth or reality ? Is it, perhaps, dangerous ? If it can be, when, under which circumstances ? Are measurements or forecasts available ? Those questions come to mind, when one thinks of space-wx. Answers are available – and from many places. In my presentation I´ll introduce some websites and information sources that are simple to use and easy to understand – mostly. EASA is holding a workshop on space-weather, which will certainly provide some first guidance from a regulatory perspective. Then, there are the new space-wx provisions of ICAO, that are about to enter into practical use this year. An overview will be provided, as well as information on the status of implementation. At the end of the presentation, an outlook on the near future will be attempted.

Posters

1	First analysis of GLE 72 using neutron monitor data and assessment of radiation environment at aviation altitudes	Mishev, A et al.	p-Poster
	A. Mishev[1,2], I. Usoskin[1,2], L. Kocharov[2], R. Vanio[3], E. Valtonen[3], O. Raukunen[3], M. Paasilta[3]
	[1] Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland [2] Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland [3] University of Turku, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Turku, Finland
	A GLE event was produced in 10 September 2017, following X8.2 solar flare. The GLE onset was observed by several neutron monitor (NM) stations at about 16:15 UT with strongest NM increases observed at DOMC/DOMB 10-15 % compared to the pre-increase levels, accordingly SOPO/SOPB 5-8 % and FSMT 6%. Herein, we derive the rigidity spectra and pitch angle distributions of SEPs during the GLE 72. The analysis is performed using neutron monitor and space-borne data. The SEP spectra and pitch angle distributions are obtained in their dynamical development throughout the event. An interpretation of the derived SEP characteristics is proposed. Using the derived spectra and recent model we assessed the exposure to radiation of a crew/passenger at different locations and at several cruise flight altitudes and calculated the received doses for two typical intercontinental flights.
2	On user liaison between space weather services and the aviation sector	Van den oord, G et al.	p-Poster
	Bert van den Oord[1], Joost Koning[1], Kirsti Kauristi[2], Kari Österberg[2]
	[1]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), [2]Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
	Now that information from space weather services is becoming an integral element in aeronautical safety operations, as recognized by in ICAO Annex 3, it is important to find optimal ways to introduce the new services into the strong procedural working methods of the aviation sector. Since about 25 major airports are responsible for about 12 million aircraft movements and there are more than 5000 airlines with official ICAO codes, the potential user community for space weather services is enormous. Therefore, it will be important to educate the end users in a proactive manner to avoid misconceptions resulting in an overflow of clarifying questions when the new advisories and warnings are used in real operations. Collecting user feedback and utilizing it in system development is also an important aspect of Quality Management. In the poster we describe how the so-called Plan-Do–Check-Act (PDCA) cycle can be used in user liaison in order to develop space weather services according to the ISO standards required in aviation sector. By collecting regularly information on how the system performance is perceived by the users, the quality of the service can either be maintained at the required level or improved appropriately without unnecessary iterations. We also discuss the guidelines that the WMO provides for meteorological services for aviation and how these can be applied in the case of space weather. By using the lessons-learned from meteorological services it will be easier to introduce space weather advisories in aeronautical operations
3	Radiation Environment at Flight Altitude: Model Verification with Aircraft Measurement	Jiyoung, K et al.	p-Poster
	Jiyoung Kim[1], Wonhyeong Yi[1], Kun-Il Jang[1], W. Kent Tobiska[2]
	[1] Korea Meteorological Administration, [2] Space Environment Technologies
	Radiation environment at flight level should be accurately monitored and properly informed for protecting health of air crew and passengers from the adverse effect of the ionizing radiation. Radiation exposures originated from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or energetic solar particles (SEP) are generally estimated by numerical models because every commercial aircraft could not embed an instrument to measure the radiation dose rate. This study aims to assess and inter-compare three radiation dose estimation models, NAIRAS (Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety) system, CARI-7, and KREAM (Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose). And each model is verified with the ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety) that measures the ambient radiation environment at commercial aircraft altitudes. The statistical characteristics of model errors are investigated. The total effective dose values of 213 flights during September 2015 to October 2017 over both hemispheres are used for the model verification. The study period corresponds to the end of descending phase of the solar cycle 24. In general all models tend to underestimate the total effective doses although some modeled doses overestimate if the total dose is small. The larger the total doses are, the greater model errors are estimated. The correlation coefficient between the models and ARMAS measurement is ordered by CARI-7 (0.96), KREAM (0.92), and NAIRAS (0.88). The RMSE (root mean square error) in uSv is ordered by NAIRAS (11.2), KREAM (14.1), and CARI-7 (15.3). The result in this study implies that the model errors in cases with actually large dose should be checked. And each model need to be improved because the underestimated dose assessment gives air crew and the public a reduced awareness of adverse health impacts arising from ionizing radiation.
4	PECASUS: GNSS user domain service	Wilken, V et al.	p-Poster
	Volker Wilken[1], Martin Kriegel[1], Claudio Cesaroni[2], Luca Spogli[2], Nicolas Bergeot[3], Jean-Marie Chevalier[3], Iwona Stanislawska[4], Lukasz Tomasik[4] and Bert van den Oord[5]
	[1] German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany [2] Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Italy [3] Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE), Belgium [4]Centrum Badan Kosmiccznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk (SRC), Poland [5]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands
	The PECASUS (Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services) initiative aims for a global space weather (SWx) information service center (SWxC) as specified by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) in its State Letter (AN 10/1-IND/17/11) released in June 2017. The countries forming the PECASUS consortium are Finland (Lead), Belgium, UK, Poland, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Austria, and Cyprus. One of the four planned 'Expert Groups' deals with 'GNSS user domain service' and are formed by INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), SRC PAS (Space Research Centre of Polish Academy of Sciences), STCE (Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence), KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt/ German Aerospace Center) which is also leading the Expert Group. The poster will show and explain the products and services foreseen to be delivered in an operational near-real-time system.
5	PECASUS: Radiation Expert Group and Service	De donder, E et al.	p-Poster
	E. De Donder[1], M. Latocha[2], P. Beck[2], M. Dierckxsens[1], N. Crosby[1], S. Calders[2]
	[1]Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, Belgium, [2]Seibersdorf Labor GmbH, Austria
	The Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services (PECASUS)consortium was created in response to the call from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to provide a Global Space Weather Information Service. The requested service focuses on the dissemination of warning messages ('advisories') towards aviation actors and corresponds to extreme space weather events with impact on aviation GNSS systems, HF communication and radiation levels at flight altitudes. In this poster we present the expert group for radiation within the PECASUS consortium together with the key products that are used to put duty officers on alert and generate the input for the radiation advisory messages.
6	Assessing the radiation level at aviation altitude along different route in South Africa.	Nndanganeni, R et al.	p-Poster
	Rendani Rejoyce Nndanganeni
	South African National Space Agency (SANSA), P O Box 32, Hermanus 7200, South Africa,
	The aviation altitude is continuously bombarded with high-energy ionizing cosmic radiation. The two main sources of ionizing radiation at the aviation altitude are the omnipresent background galactic cosmic rays, which originate from outside our solar system and the transient solar energetic particle events, which are associated with space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) numbers vary with the approximate 11-year solar activity cycle, such that during solar maximum (associated with increasing sunspot numbers) the GCR flux entering the solar system is reduced. During solar minimum, the opposite occurs with GCR numbers reaching their maximum intensity. During solar minimum, the radiation that reaches the Earth is expected to increase, due to the increased number of the GCRs that reach the Earth. This is due to the low shielding effect of the interplanetary magnetic field against the galactic component of cosmic radiation. As a result, the accumulative dosage rate is expected to be more significant than during solar maximum. In this work, we will assess the radiation levels at aviation altitude during solar minimum period and solar maximum period.
7	Upgrade of the International GLE database for estimation of radiation exposure at flight altitudes	Mishev, A et al.	p-Poster
	Alexander Mishev[1,2], Ilya Usoskin[1,2]
	[1] Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland; [2]Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland
	The exposure to radiation due to cosmic rays at typical for cruise flight altitudes is an important topic in the field of space weather. While the effect of galactic cosmic rays can be easily assessed on the basis of models and/or measurements, the estimation of the dose rate during strong solar particle events (SEPs) is rather complicated. A special class of strong SEP events with energy about GeV/nucleon which produce an atmospheric cascade registered by ground based detectors e.g. neutron monitors (NMs), are to so-called ground level enhancements (GLEs). Those can significantly enhance the radiation exposure at flight altitudes, specifically over the polar regions. An upgrade of the existing international GLE database provides information of NM count rates around the globe during GLEs and additional records on the estimated SEP energy/rigidity spectra, the corresponding computed effective doses and bibliography. Using this upgrade we compute the maximum effective doses at altitude of 35 kft during several GLEs, where the necessary information as energy/rigidity spectra of SEPs is available employing a recent model. A highly significant correlation between the maximum effective dose rate and NM count increase during GLEs is observed. Therefore, it is possible to use the NM maximal increase as a proxy to estimate the effective dose at flight altitude during strong solar particle events.
8	Integration of DYASTIMA to European Space Agency	Tezari, A et al.	p-Poster
	P. Paschalis [1], A. Tezari [1] [2], M. Gerontidou [1], H. Mavromichalaki [1], P. Karaiskos [2], N. Crosby [3], M. Dierckxsens [3]
	[1] Athens Cosmic Ray Group, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, Greece [2] Medical Physics Laboratory, Medical School, University of Athens, Greece [3] Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Belgium
	As cosmic rays reach the top of the atmosphere of a planet, cascades of secondary particles are evolving through a series of physical interactions and processes. The study of these cascades is very important for Space Weather studies and applications, and several models and software have been developed for these reasons. DYnamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA) is a standalone software application for the simulation of cosmic ray showers in the atmosphere of a planet. It is a Monte Carlo simulation based on the Geant4 toolkit and it is implemented by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/index.php/dyastima). Recently it is integrated as a federated new product at the Space Radiation Expert Center of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme of the European Space Agency (ESA), where this Group participates as an expert group. A new version of this tool, available through the ESA portal, is presented. This version includes the DYASTIMA-R extension for the calculation of the dose and equivalent dose in different atmospheric conditions, which can be of great interest for the aviation community.
9	Current Status of WASAVIES: Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particle	Sato, T et al.	p-Poster
	Tatsuhiko Sato[1], Tatsuhiko Sato1, Ryuho Kataoka[2,3], Daikou Shiota[4,5], Yûki Kubo[4], Mamoru Ishii[4], Hiroshi Yasuda[6], Shoko Miyake[7], InChun Park[5], Yoshizumi Miyoshi[5]
	[1]Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), [2]National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR), [3]SOKENDAI, [4]National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), [5]Nagoya University, [6]Hiroshima University, [7]National Institute of Technology, Ibaraki College
	A physics-based warning system of aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, is improved to be capable of real-time and automatic analysis. In the improved system, the count rates of several neutron monitors (NM) at the ground level, as well as the proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite are continuously downloaded at intervals of 5 min and used for checking the occurrence of ground level enhancement (GLE). When a GLE event is detected, the system automatically determines the model parameters for characterizing the profiles of each GLE event, and nowcasts and forecasts the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 h after the flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the four major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the nowcast data obtained by the model is well validated by the reproducibility of the current NM count rates and GOES proton fluxes as well as the flight-dose measurements. On the other hand, the forecast data are reliable only when the evaluated parameters are stable, as expected in the model. A web-interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server of NICT.