Session 10 - Aviation

Marcin Latocha (Seibersdorf Lab.), Erwin de Donder (BIRA-IASB)
Wednesday 20/11, 09:00-10:30
Elisabeth

Space Weather can have an important impact on aviation due to disruption to HF communications and to GNSS positioning and navigation. In addition, enhanced radiation levels can have potential impacts on crew and passenger health and avionics systems. There is thus a strong need to provide a space weather information service to support international air navigation, and this has been recognised by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In early 2018, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on behalf of ICAO started the process which led to the designation of three global space weather information centers (PECASUS*, ACFJ** and SWPC***) and two further regional centers (South Africa and a consortium of China and Russian Federation).

In this session we will focus on the current and developing space weather service requirements for all aviation users, how well these requirements can be addressed via existing ICAO or other service provision, and the necessary research steps needed to fill any gaps between the services supplied and what the users actually want. Of particular interest shall be plans for a coordinated and harmonized provision of the intended space weather advisory information.


* PECASUS: Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services

**ACFJ: Australia Canada France Japan

***SWPC: US Space Weather Prediction Centre

Talks
Wednesday November 20, 09:00 - 10:30, Elisabeth

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Talks : Time schedule

Wednesday November 20, 09:00 - 10:30, Elisabeth

09:00	Nowcasting application of the global NM network data for assessment of the radiation exposure at flight altitudes	Mishev, A et al.	Oral
	[1,2] A. Mishev, [1,2] I. Usoskin
	[1] Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland, [2] Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland
	Nowadays, assessment of the exposure to secondary radiation in the atmosphere due to cosmic rays of galactic and solar origin, at cruising aviation altitudes is an important topic in the field of space weather. The contribution of galactic cosmic rays to the exposure can be assessed on the basis of recent models, records from specific instruments and routine monitoring. However, assessments of the dose rate during strong solar particle events (SEPs) is more complicated. SEP events possess large diversity in their spectra, duration, which determine the exposure to radiation in the vicinity of Earth and Earth’s atmosphere and also are characterized with a stochastic occurrence. Of specific interest are SEPs with energy enough to produce an extensive air shower, which secondary particles can be registered by ground based detectors e.g. neutron monitors (NMs), namely ground level enhancements (GLEs). During such events is observed a significant enhancement of the radiation exposure at typical commercial jet flight altitudes, specifically over the polar regions. Here using records from the global NM network, we provide information about derived SEP energy/rigidity spectra, the corresponding computed effective doses for several events. The derived spectra are incorporated as an upgrade of the existing GLE database. On the basis of a statistical study we propose to use the global NM data as a proxy for assessment of the effective dose at flight altitude during strong SEP events.
09:20	SEE the greatest threat to Aviation from Space Weather	Hands, A et al.	Oral
	Alex Hands
	Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey, UK
	The threat to aviation from space weather exists on multiple fronts. Interruptions to high frequency (HF) communications and GPS navigation signals due to ionospheric disturbances are well known, with various space weather alerts designed around relevant indices. The separate threat from solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) is usually characterised as an elevated dose rate to passengers and crew. However, single event effects (SEE) in aircraft electronics (avionics) arguably present a greater threat as the range of possible consequences is far wider and yet poorly characterised. The recently-produced ICAO manual on space weather information suggests thresholds for “moderate” and “severe” space weather advisory alerts. The communication of these alerts will be the responsibility of three new global space weather centres, which must include in their output the estimated effective dose rate to passengers and crew. However, not only is effective dose rate an inadequate proxy for quantifying the SEE rate in avionics, the focus on dose rather than neutron flux downplays the risk to safety-critical flight systems from SEE. The International Electro-technical Commission (IEC) technical committee on process management for avionics (TC107) considers the risk to avionics from SEE in its 62396 safety standard. Part 6 of this standard addresses the risk from elevated neutron flux during space weather by defining two scenarios, based on approximate worst case event timescales of 50 and 1000 years. The flux enhancement factors above the galactic cosmic ray background for these timescales are calculated at one thousand and thirty thousand respectively. SEE rates in avionics would be expected to rise by similar factors during an extreme space weather event. The consequences of such huge increases in SEE rates are unknown, especially as redundancy protection may be overwhelmed in such circumstances, and there is no current requirement for avionics manufacturers to qualify their equipment for this environment. The lack of any significant SEPEs in the last three decades means that no modern fly-by-wire system has been subjected to a high level of atmospheric neutron flux, and yet we know significant failures can occur during background conditions. The increasing reliance on fly-by-wire systems in passenger aircraft demands a far better understanding of the risk to critical systems from neutron-induced SEE during space weather events.
09:40	NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Radiation Advisory Framework for the International Civil Aviation Organization	Bain, H et al.	Oral
	Hazel M Bain[1,2], Terry Onsager[2], Kyle Copeland[3], Chris Smith[2], Robert Steenburgh[2], Steven Hill[2]
	[1]Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder; [2]National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration Space Weather Prediction Center; [3]U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Civil Aerospace Medical Institute.
	Radiation storms from transient solar eruptive events and the ever-present background galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) together comprise a spectrum of atmospheric ionizing radiation. The radiation environment at altitudes for commercial flights can be several orders of magnitude greater than at sea level. As a result, there is a growing desire for real-time space weather forecasting of radiation levels at airline altitudes. As a designated International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) global space weather information center, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA SWPC) will begin issuing advisories for radiation levels at commercial airline altitudes. NOAA SWPC radiation advisories will be guided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) CARI-7 dose rate model (Copeland 2017). This presentation will detail the real-time proton spectrum input to the model from the new GOES series SGPS instrument, the CARI-7 model framework and the radiation advisory format required by ICAO.
10:00	Radiation aspects of space weather in the airline business	Zander, R et al.	Oral
	Ralph Zander, Christian Dratwa
	Vereinigung Cockpit
	We are dealing with the aspects of radiation in the airline business. We have established an overview concerning the way the airline industry is dealing with space weather nowadays, what we have identified as possible risks to crews and passengers and then there is in outlook of how we are planning to cope with the subject in the future.
10:15	EASA safety policy’ regarding atmospheric radiation/space weather and the effects on avionic equipment	Hallworth, K et al.	Oral
	K. Hallworth
	This presentation provides an overview of the EASA certification policy regarding Single Event Effects caused by atmospheric radiation. It is recognised that aircraft systems may be affected by atmospheric radiation. Aircraft manufacturers and equipment manufacturers are now taking into consideration this possible failure mechanism. EASA has issued a Certification Memorandum which provides guidance including an acceptable means of compliance to applicants.

Posters

1	Radiation exposure at flight altitudes during extreme GLEs	Mishev, A et al.	p-Poster
	[1,2] A. Mishev, [1,2] I. Usoskin
	[1] Space Climate Research Unit University of Oulu, Finland, [2] Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory University of Oulu, Finland
	One of the most important problems in the field of space weather related to aviation is the precise and realistic assessment of the exposure to secondary cosmic ray radiation at flight altitudes, specifically during strong solar energetic particle events. Of specific interest are strong solar energetic particle events with energy enough to produce an extensive air shower in the Earth’s atmosphere, whose secondary particles can be registered by ground based detectors e.g. neutron monitors. Those events are known as ground level enhancements (GLEs). During such events is observed a significant enhancement of the radiation exposure at flight altitudes, specifically over the polar and sub-polar region. Precise information for GLE particles spectra allows one to assess the exposure to radiation at flight altitudes using a convenient modelling. Historically the strongest GLE under number five was registered on 23 February 1956, with increase of the count rate of NMs above 5000 %. The solar cycle 23 provided several strong ground level enhancements (GLEs), including the second largest event in the observational history observed on 20 January 2005. Here using records from the global neutron monitor network, we derive the GLE particles rigidity spectra for the two strongest events and compute the corresponding effective doses throughout the events.
2	New developments and results from the Smart Atmospheric Ionising Radiation (SAIRA) Network	Clewer, B et al.	p-Poster
	Ben Clewer[1], Keith Ryden[1], Alex Dyer[1], Alex Hands[1]
	[1] University of Surrey
	ICAO’s recently released Space Weather Manual (International Civil Aviation Organization., 2018) advises aircraft operators to actively respond to space weather and highlights the benefits of installing atmospheric radiation monitoring systems on-board. However, there are many practical barriers to doing so. The SAIRA (Smart Atmospheric Ionising Radiation) Network is a new citizen-science based, on-board radiation measurement system (Clewer et al, 2019), which is under active development to radically increase the number of measurements available. SAIRA offers the opportunity to deploy a fleet of detectors at low cost using an effective distribution method of downloadable smartphone applications and handheld, USB connected, detector units. It also provides the ideal opportunity to utilise volunteer engagement to increase public awareness of the field. In the presentation we will present recent progress on SAIRA including an update of the ongoing flight trial program, including new flight data from numerous additional flights from Europe to Dubai, the U.S and on new routes to Japan. At the time of writing, 60 flights have now been successfully conducted using public volunteers. New hardware and software developments, based upon user feedback, to enhance system operation and ensure its feasibility will be presented. Also included will be the early stages of the calibration process, including new in-flight calibrations against TEPCs and looking at how the SAIRA units will respond during a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE). REFERENCES: International Civil Aviation Organization. (2018). Manual on Space Weather Information in Support of International Air Navigation. Clewer, B. J., Ryden, K. A., Dyer, A. C. R., Hands, A., and Jackson, D.. (2019), A Citizen Science Network for Measurements of Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Levels. Space Weather, 17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002190
3	The NMDB database as a support for the monitoring of radiation exposure aboard aircraft	Klein, K et al.	p-Poster
	Karl-Ludwig Klein[1], Rolf Bütikofer[2], Olga Kryakunova[3], Danislav Sapundjiev[4], Christian Steigies[5], the NMDB consortium
	[1] Observatoire de Paris, France [2] Universität Bern, Switzerland, [3] Institute of Ionosphere, Kazakhstan, [4] Royal Meteorological Institute, Belgium, [5] Universität Kiel, Germany
	Cosmic rays at energies that are able to trigger particle cascades in the Earth's atmosphere are the main source of radiation at aircraft altitudes. European legislation stipulates that radiation doses received by air crew be monitored. On the worldwide level, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) identified consortia for a space weather service that will operate starting 2019. Operational activities are also ongoing in other countries. Given the increasing societal interest the provision of data on cosmic rays, including real time data, is a fundamental need. Neutron monitors are sensitive to the relevant energy range of cosmic rays. Today, the Neutron Monitor database (NMDB) provides the data of nearly the entire network of neutron monitors, i.e. information about the cosmic ray intensity and its energy spectrum in the range 500 MeV to 15 GeV near Earth. About 35 neutron monitor stations send their data to NMDB in real-time, which makes NMDB an excellent instrument for space weather applications. NMDB was developed with funding from a European FP7 project in 2008-2009 and is maintained and operated at the University of Kiel (Germany). In this contribution NMDB and the means to access the data will be briefly presented. The potential of NMDB for new space weather service applications for civil aviation will primarily be illustrated.
4	Validation of DYASTIMA and integration to ESA SSA R-ESC	Paschalis, P et al.	p-Poster
	Pavlos Paschalis[1], Anastasia Tezari[1][2], Helen Mavromichalaki[1], Norma Crosby[3], Marc Dierckxsens[3]
	[1] Athens Cosmic Ray Group, Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, [2] Medical Physics Laboratory, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, [3] Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Belgium
	Modelling the air showers created by the interaction of the primary cosmic ray particles with the atmosphere of a planet is of great importance for Space Weather studies. The DYnamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA) is a Monte Carlo simulation of the cascades produced in the atmosphere of a planet due to cosmic ray propagation, providing all the necessary information about the secondary particles. It is a standalone software application, based on a very friendly graphical user interface (GUI) and is implemented in Geant4 by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group. So far, DYASTIMA has been used successfully for the atmospheres of Earth and Venus. DYASTIMA-R, which is an additional simulation integrated into DYASTIMA software, performs radiation dosimetry calculations in the different atmospheric layers. More specifically, DYASTIMA-R provides the dose rate and the equivalent dose rate for various flight scenarios during different solar activity conditions and Space Weather phenomena. The validation of DYASTIMA-R is performed according to the recommendations set forth in ICRP 137 and ICRU 84 documents. DYASTIMA-R meets the ICRU/ICRP criteria satisfactorily and therefore can be used for a reliable determination of the exposure of aircrews and passengers to ionizing cosmic radiation. DYASTIMA is available at the European Space Agency Space Situational Awareness (ESA SSA) Space Radiation Expert Service Center portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/space-radiation) as a new federated product.
5	A technology update for aviation dosimetry tool AVIDOS	Latocha, M et al.	p-Poster
	Marcin Latocha[1], Peter Beck[1]
	[1]Seibersdorf Laboratories
	AVIDOS (Aviation Dosimetry) is an informational and educational software for the assessment of cosmic radiation exposure at flight altitudes. It is a web service federated with ESA’s Space Weather Portal and accessible under the “Airline” service domain already since 2012. The first version of AVIDOS allowed for the assessment of cosmic radiation exposure only due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The second version has been online since 2016. The updated model provides nowcasting of radiation exposure due to sporadic solar energetic particles and allows for forecasting of radiation effects due to GCR for up to one year. With the latest developments of ESA’s Space Weather Portal, and modern trends in web design, we took an effort to update our service towards modern web technologies. In our contribution, we will first briefly sketch the history of AVIDOS what will allow us to highlight the latest technological developments. In particular, we will present the new graphical user interface and describe new functionalities that come with our latest achievement - AVIDOS 3.0.
6	Operational Instruments for Measuring SWx Radiation Impacts at Aviation Altitudes	Schennetten, K et al.	p-Poster
	Kai Schennetten[1], Daniel Matthiä[1], Michael Wirtz[1], Matthias M. Meier[1]
	[1]Institute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center
	The interaction of cosmic radiation with constituents of the atmosphere creates a secondary particle field which contributes to the radiation exposure of aircrew and passengers. The assessment of this exposure can be achieved by model calculations and measurements. Reliable measurements of dose quantities in the complex radiation field at aviation altitudes require qualified radiation measuring instruments operated under well-defined flight and SWx conditions. A set of several types of such radiation detectors has been used on commercial airline flights as well as in research aircraft by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for many years. The goal of these measuring flights has been the acquisition of high quality dose data for scientific investigations and operational radiation protection purposes. The detector types used, i.e. Hawk, a tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC), Liulin, a silicon semiconductor detector, LB 6411-Pb, a neutron probe, and bubble detectors are introduced.
7	Provision of space weather bulletins in support to Aviation	De donder, E et al.	p-Poster
	E. De Donder[1], A. Calogera[1], S. Chabanski[1], C. Liber[1], R. Vansintjan[2], J. O’Hara[2], A. Glover[3]
	[1]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium, [2]Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, [3]ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany
	In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather Service Network to support end-users, in a wide range of affected sectors, in mitigating the effects of space weather on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. In building this network space weather products/tools are developed and federated in services, that are suitable for operational implementation and importantly that meet the end-user needs. In the approach to establish a close relationship with the end-users of space weather services, the SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC) — which provides the user helpdesk and first-line user support for the SWE Service Network, organizes user support campaigns to build tailored space weather bulletins. During the campaign, the SSCC works with the user in order to compile a proposed bulletin format, contents and delivery schedule. Products/tools from the SWE Service Network are tailored to address the specific user needs and are combined in a dashboard from which dedicated space weather forecast notifications are generated. In this poster, we highlight the SSCC user support campaign for a group of test users within the aviation community.
8	PECASUS, one of the global Space Weather Centers supporting ICAO	Kauristie, K et al.	p-Poster
	Kirsti Kauristie[1], Jesse Andries[2], Nicolas Bergeot[2], Peter Beck[3], David Berghmans[2], Claudio Cesaroni [4], Norma Crosby[3], Erwin De Donder[3], Mark Dierckxsens[3], Mark Gibbs[5], Haris Haralambous[6], Ari-Matti Harri[1], Marcin Latocha[3], Loredana Perrone[4], Vincenzo Romano[4], Luca Spogli[4], Iwona Stanislawska[7], Krista Hammond[5], Lukasz Tomasik[7], Bert van den Oord[8], Petra Vanlommel[2], Volker Wilken[9], Martin Kriegel[9], Lee-Anne McKinnell [10] and Kari Österberg [1]
	[1] Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; [2] Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, Belgium; [3] Seibersdorf Labor GmbH, Austria; [4] Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy; [5] UK Met Office, United Kingdom; [6] Frederick University, Cyprus; [7] Centrum Badan Kosmiccznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk (SRC), Poland; [8]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the Netherlands; [9]Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Germany; [10]South-African National Space Agency (SANSA), South-Africa
	The PECASUS[*] consortium serves as one of the three global Space Weather centers that provides the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) with Advisories during strong storms. The two other centers are maintained by NOAA/SWPC and the ACFJ consortium of Australian, Canadian, French and Japanese Space Weather services. The requested Advisories address impacts on aviation GNSS systems, HF communication and radiation levels at flight altitudes. Specifications for the Advisories are given in the Annex III to ICAO’s Convention on International Civil Aviation and in the organization’s Manual on Space Weather Information in Support of International Air Navigation. The PECASUS team was set-up as a consortium bringing together a number of European partners with proven space weather service capabilities. The PECASUS consortium is coordinated by FMI (Finland) who is also the ultimate responsible for communications towards the aviation sector. The Advisory Messages are produced by STCE (Belgium) on the basis of expert interpretation and data streams produced by DLR (Germany), INGV (Italy), Seibersdorf Laboratories (Austria), STCE (Belgium), SRC (Poland), and FU (Cyprus). In addition, the MetOffice (UK) will act as a resilience node in case of a major failure in the network, while the KNMI (The Netherlands) will take care of user liaison and monitor the PECASUS performance. The South-African National Space Agency (SANSA) joined to PECASUS in September 2019. During the recent year PECASUS has participated actively to the implementation phase of the ICAO services, which is a joint effort between the Space Weather information providers, ICAO MET Panel Expert Members and their Designated Advisors. This Ad Hoc Coordination Group has searched consolidated solutions for Advisory formulation and dissemination in the ICAO framework, for task sharing among the centers, on several details in the Advisory content, and on solutions for information exchange among the centers and for communication towards the users. A prominent concern in the implementation phase discussions has been the objective to provide users with clear and accurate information on prevailing storm conditions without overwhelming them with too many advisories. In the poster we will present a review of PECASUS data products and procedures and discuss how they are used to tackle the challenge of precise but concise services. [*] Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services