Session 11 - Spacecraft Operations

Alexi Glover (ESA Space Safety), Sophie Chabanski (SSCC, BIRA-IASB), Dave Pitchford (SES), Bruno Sousa (ESA Missions Operations)
Thursday 21/11, 09:00-10:30
Elisabeth

Geomagnetic storms, high-speed solar wind streams, solar energetic particle events and Earth-directed CMEs are examples of space weather phenomena that can lead to potentially hazardous effects on spacecraft operations. These may include solar array degradation, dose effects on electronics and humans, electrostatic charging and discharging, single event effects and variations in thermospheric density influencing orbital decay.
Space weather services providing continuous real-time monitoring and forecasting of the space weather environment, along with tools for rapid post event analysis, aim to provide the relevant information enabling flight control teams to take adequate decisions related to spacecraft operations to limit the impact of space weather.

This session will address space weather services for spacecraft operators from multiple different perspectives, presenting current state-of-the-art services and providing an opportunity for researchers, service providers and spacecraft operators to share their experience, activities, needs and vision for the future evolution of space weather services in this domain.

Talks
Thursday November 21, 09:00 - 10:30, Elisabeth

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Talks : Time schedule

Thursday November 21, 09:00 - 10:30, Elisabeth

09:00	INTEGRAL Mission Operations and Space Weather	Huebner, J et al.	Invited Oral
	Jutta Huebner
	European Space Agency
09:15	The Satellite Risk and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF)	Horne, R et al.	Oral
	Richard Horne[1], Sarah Glauert[1], Peter Kirsch[1], Daniel Heynderickx[2], Suzy Bingham[3] and Peter Thorn[3]
	[1]British Antarctic Survey, [2]DH Consultancy, [3]UK Meterological Office
	With thousands of new satellites due to be launched, the exploitation of low and medium Earth orbit and the introduction of electric propulsion to reach geostationary orbit there is a growing need to develop space weather services to protect satellites from space weather. Here we present the new satellite risk and radiation forecast system (SaRIF) which is designed to address this need. The system integrates the radiation environment with radiation effects on spacecraft. It uses the BAS radiation belt model (BAS-RBM) to forecast the electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt up to 24 hours ahead. The flux is used to calculate deep dielectric charging, dose rate and total ionizing dose behind levels of shielding. The results are compared against European and NASA design standards and presented as risk indicators for satellites in medium, geostationary and slot region orbits. The forecasts are updated every hour and are available with forecasts issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The system includes post event reconstruction to aide anomaly resolution and an archive of data that can be displayed graphically. The system is available via the European Space Agency Space Situation Awareness - Space Weather web portal.
09:30	Evolving the Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System (SEAES) beyond geostationary orbit	O'brien, P et al.	Oral
	T. Paul O’Brien, Tim Guild, Joe Mazur, Alexa Halford
	The Aerospace Corporation
	The Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System (SEAES) provides situational awareness and anomaly resolution support for surface charging, internal charging, event total dose, and single event effects. Operational versions of the SEAES apply only for geostationary orbit (GEO). However, the first global SEAES prototype was demonstrated off-line over a decade ago, and a real-time multi-orbit prototype has been running continuously for nearly a decade. In this talk we introduce SEAES, discuss the need for a SEAES-like capability for arbitrary Earth orbits and trajectories, describe the special challenges of applying to orbits besides GEO, and present strategies for realizing an operational SEAES-like capability that would address hazards in all Earth orbits and trajectories through the magnetosphere.
09:45	Energetic particles in the heliosphere, current understanding and challenges for space weather services	Vainio, R et al.	Invited Oral
	Rami Vainio
	University of Turku
	Energetic particles in the heliosphere, current understanding and challenges for space weather services, R. Vainio Energetic particle populations in the heliosphere consist of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays (CGR and ACR), solar energetic particles (SEP) and particles accelerated in planetary environments (mainly Jovian electrons) and solar-wind interaction regions. I will give a review on the current understanding on the sources and transport of these particles and our capability to forecast the radiation environment due to them on various time scales. I will review the presently available models and forecasting systems and some of the ones being developed, trying also to identify the most important gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of the heliospheric radiation environment.
10:00	Discussion Panel	Pitchford, D et al.	Oral
	Dave Pitchford
	With the emergence of the 'mega-constellations' of satellites proposed by SpaceX, Google, OneWeb etc and rapid growth in private spaceflight industry working to develop low-cost access to space, so-called 'NewSpace', what are the challenges and opportunities for the Space Weather service provision community?

Posters

1	Thermosphere density forecast and satellite orbit decay	Temmer, M et al.	p-Poster
	Sandro Krauss[1], Manuela Temmer[2], and Susanne Vennerstrom[3]
	(1) Institute of Geodesy, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria (sandro.krauss@tugraz.at), (2) Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria (manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at), (3) Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark (sv@space.dtu.dk)
	We present a thorough statistical analysis on the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) onto the neutral density in the thermosphere. As the enhancement in density is one of the key factors influencing satellite’s drag, forecasting of impacts is an important issue. For the time period 2003-2015 we investigated almost 400 ICME and CIR events extracted from catalogs maintained by Richardson & Cane, S. Vennerstrom and L.K. Jian. We find that the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz is very well correlated with the enhancement in the neutral density. From that we derive an empirical relation between Bz and neutral density enhancement in the thermosphere. Based on these results we perform a forecasting (30-45 minutes, hence, nowcasting) of the neutral density variations and satellite orbit decays, respectively. We present a proto-type of the forecasting service currently running in real-time under swe.uni-graz.at.
2	Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Space Weather Research Analysis – Forecasting for NASA’s Robotic Missions	Collado-vega, Y et al.	p-Poster
	Yaireska (Yari) Collado-Vega[1], Masha Kuznetsova[1], Leila Mays[1], Antti Pulkkinen[2], Anna Chulaki[1], Yihua Zheng[1], Aleksandre Taktakishvili[1], Karin Muglach[1], et al.
	[1]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Space Weather Laboratory, USA, [2]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, USA
	NASA has a very unique space weather need with missions operating across the solar system. Having the capability to quantify the space weather effects for the hardware and human environment has become an important role that the Space Weather forecasting team within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) can accomplish. Since founded in 2010, we have established a very diverse group of scientists from different space science fields working every day to support NASA’s robotic missions space weather needs. This is done by conducting and providing space weather forecasts, notifications, analysis and also education. This presentation will describe the team's concepts of operations, notification processes, anomaly analysis, and the tools used for space weather forecasting. The space weather anomaly analysis is one important aspects of the team's services and the impact assessments are developed on demand, based on information provided by the mission flight teams. Requests are received approximately on a weekly or more frequent basis and the team has delivered more than 250 anomaly assessment for different missions. The development of the next generation of space weather tools is also an essential part to the team's objectives and include systems that are completely open and available to the public’s use.
3	Evaluation of the SaRIF electron flux forecasts and reconstructions	Glauert, S et al.	p-Poster
	Sarah A. Glauert, Richard B. Horne, Peter J. Kirsch
	British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
	The flux of relativistic electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts is highly variable and has been observed to change by several orders of magnitude on a timescale of hours. With the increasing use of MEO orbits, predicting these changes and forecasting the electron flux across the radiation belts is becoming more important. Building on the experience gained in the EU-FP7 SPACECAST and SPACESTORM projects, the British Antarctic Survey has developed the SaRIF service, available on the ESA SSA portal, to provide forecasts and post-event reconstructions of the radiation belts from the outer edge of the inner belt to geostationary orbit. These forecasts and reconstructions are provided using the BAS Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM), a physics-based model originally developed as a research tool for studying the behaviour of the radiation belts. We will describe how the model has been adapted for use in the SaRIF service. Its accuracy, in both the reconstructions and forecasts, will be assessed by comparing the results with data from the GOES satellites in GEO and from the GIOVE-A satellite in MEO, using several metrics and skill scores to quantify the accuracy
4	Arguing for a Near-Midnight Dipolarization and Particle Injection Monitoring System	Lotoaniu, P et al.	p-Poster
	Paul T.M. Loto’aniu[1,2], Sam Califf[1,2]
	[1]CIRES-University of Colorado, [2]NCEI-NOAA
	The local near-midnight to dawn sector of the magnetosphere is a common region for space weather related geostationary spacecraft anomalies. The reason for increased susceptibility in this region is because of energetic particle injections from the magnetospheric tail during substorms and dipolarization events combined with seasonal shadowing of spacecraft frames from the sun leading to strong differential charging. However, in spite of the danger that this region poses to satellites there is no continuous observational monitoring of the local near-midnight sector. Furthermore, these energetic particle injection events, for the most part, cannot be predicted by models, and the link between the strength and timing of the injections and global space weather parameters is not well understood. An example of this was the Galaxy 15 spacecraft anomaly, where the severe dipolarization that resulted in strong energetic particle injection from the tail was not predicted by NOAA space weather forecasters or by the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). With hundreds of satellites now operating at geostationary orbit we advocate for an in-situ dipolarization and particle injection monitoring system to continuously monitor the local near-midnight space environment. Using a constellation of geostationary satellites equipped with magnetometers and particle detectors and spaced in longitude such that there is always a probe within a couple of hours of local midnight would allow almost continuous monitoring of the near-earth magnetic field dipolarizations and energetic particle injections. Alternatively, a combination of both elliptical geotransfer orbit (GTO) and geostationary satellites could be used. We discuss both the monitoring system concept and possible space weather products that could be used in operations by space weather agencies and/or spacecraft operators. We suggest that there should be an emphasis on forecasting and nowcasting the local space environment and not just global space weather.
5	The Proba-V/EPT data products within the ESA-SSA Space Weather Services	Borisov, S et al.	p-Poster
	Stanislav Borisov[1], Sylvie Benck[1] and Mathias Cyamukungu[1,2]
	[1] Center for Space Radiations, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, (UCL/ELI-C/CSR), Place Louis Pasteur, 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, [2] G-HiTech, Rue de la source 25, B-1435 Mont-Saint-Guibert, Belgium
	By now the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) on-board Proba-V (launched on 7th May 2013 onto a polar Low Earth Orbit of 820 km altitude) has provided quasi continuously more than six years of flux spectra data for electrons (0.5–8 MeV), protons (9.5–300 MeV) and α-particles (38–1200 MeV) with a time resolution of 2 seconds. The data are transmitted to ground 3 times per day, where within several hours they are processed towards the following data products: - daily flux spectra time series along the orbit (L1); - weekly flux geographical maps; - weekly averaged auroral electron energy spectra; - weekly averaged SAA proton and helium energy spectra; - yearly static radiation model of the three energetic particles, including flux time series on a regular B-L grid (L2) . While the four first products mentioned here above are available at the ESA-SSA-SWE portal (ESA-SSA Space Weather, Expert Service Center Space Radiation) since October 2016, the latter product will complete them by the end of 2019. This presentation will give a summary on the EPT data products that are available at the ESA-SSA-SWE service centre and some information on the upcoming reprocessed dataset.
6	Provision of space weather bulletins in support to Spacecraft Operations	De donder, E et al.	p-Poster
	R. Vansintjan[1], J. De Patoul[1], J. Andries[1], J. O’Hara[1], S. Chabanski[2], A. Calogera[2], E. De Donder[2], A. Glover[3]
	[1]Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, [2]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium, [3]ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany
	In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather Service Network to support end-users, in a wide range of affected sectors, in mitigating the effects of space weather on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. In building this network space weather products/tools are developed and federated in services, that are suitable for operational implementation and importantly that meet the end-users needs. Within the network the SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC) is the focal point for space weather user support and offers first line support to end-users. For key users (upon request) the SSCC also provides support in the form of tailored, regular dedicated space weather bulletins. During a campaign the SSCC works with the user in order to compile a proposed bulletin format, contents and delivery schedule. This involves combining and tailoring specific elements of a given SWE Service in order to address specific user needs, and providing this direct to the users contact point(s) on a pre-agreed schedule/basis. Tailored products are collected in a dashboard that is automatically updated and continuously available for the user. On basis of the dashboard and with the help of forecasters from the Expert Service Centres (ESCs), dedicated space weather forecast notifications are produced. In this poster we highlight the Spacecraft Operation service for which a general SWE bulletin and dashboard has been created in support of (ESA and non-ESA) mission operations at various orbits.
7	Service for Nowcast and Forecast Indices used for Atmospheric Drag Calculation	Caramete, A et al.	p-Poster
	Ana Caramete[1], Vlad Constantinescu[1], Octav Marghitu[1], Eugeniu-Mihnea Popescu[1]
	Institute of Space Science, Magurele, Romania
	As part of the ESA SSA Programme's Space Weather segment, we have developed FORIND, a service that provides nowcasts and forecasts of solar and geomagnetic indices needed for atmospheric modelling in support of atmospheric drag calculation. These indices are stored on a dedicated database and can be retrieved, in a custom tailored and homogeneous form, via a web page or a REST interface in CSV and JSON formats or visualized in PNG format. The service has been developed within the ESA SSA SWE activity on “Space Weather Service Developments” (P2-SWE-II). Its existing products and service elements are continuously being delivered, monitored and maintained(including provision of second line support) as part of SSA-P2-SWE-I.4 “Space Weather Expert Service Centres: Definition and Development” activities. FORIND is available via the SSA SWE Portal (http://swe.ssa.esa.int) as part of the products provided by the Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (I-ESC).
8	ESA SSA Space Radiation Expert Service Centre: Spacecraft Operation Domain	Zychova, L et al.	p-Poster
	Lenka Zychova [1], Mark Dierckxsens [1], Norma Crosby [1], Chris Perry [2], Alexi Glover [3]
	BIRA-IASB
	The environment in which spacecraft operate poses a potential risk due to space weather induced effects. In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/), the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather (SWE) Service Network to support end-users in three ways: mitigate the effects of space weather on their systems, reduce costs and improve reliability. Several European expert groups contribute to this Network organised in five Expert Service Centres (ESCs): Solar Weather, Heliospheric Weather, Space Radiation, Ionospheric Weather and Geomagnetic Conditions. To better understand end-user needs, the ESCs are supported by the SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre (SSCC) that offers first line support to the end-users. Here we present the Spacecraft Operation domain, which is supported by the Space Radiation ESC (R-ESC), within the SSA network. The SSA SWE network provides five services in the Spacecraft Operation domain: In-orbit environment and effects monitoring, Post event analysis, In-orbit environment and effects forecast, Mission risk analysis, and Space Weather in the Solar System. Each service provides various products and tools, which are useful for spacecraft operators for monitoring space weather conditions as well as for having real-time and forecasted assessment of space weather risk to spacecraft. The services not only focus on nowcast and forecast, but also allow post event analysis enabling spacecraft operators to investigate the cause of observed effects or anomalies in spacecraft. The necessary precautions can then be taken in time to mitigate potential risks in case similar space weather conditions occur again.