Session 3 - Satellite and ground-based observations for space weather and space climate monitoring and modelling

Guram Kervalishvili (GFZ), Eelco Doornbos (KNMI)
Monday 18/11, 13:00-15:15 & 16:00-17:15
Elisabeth

The session aims to provide the possibility to present and discuss contributions on the use of data from satellite and ground-based observations, in order to enhance the understanding of space weather and space climate, and their impact on critical infrastructure. A true global picture of space weather and space climate, in which regional effects can be put into a global context, can be obtained from the combination of space and ground measurements. Being able to predict extreme events and develop strategies for mitigation is very important for space assets (including future satellite mission concepts) and critical infrastructures on the ground.


We welcome presentations on the use of data obtained from satellite and ground-based measurements in the heliosphere, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. Contributions are welcome on the topics of data processing, data harmonization, combining different data sources, data assimilation, model development, validation and verification, as well as development and production of solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric indices.

Talks
Monday November 18, 13:00 - 15:15, Elisabeth
Monday November 18, 16:00 - 17:15, Elisabeth

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Talks : Time schedule

Monday November 18, 13:00 - 15:15, Elisabeth

13:00	Modeling ground magnetic field disturbances using satellite magnetometers	Laundal, K et al.	Invited Oral
	K. M. Laundal[1], J. P. Reistad[1], A. Ohma[1], S. M. Hatch[1], T. Moretto[1]
	[1] Birkeland Centre for Space Science, University in Bergen, Norway
	The Average Magnetic field and Polar current System (AMPS) model is a statistical model of the ionospheric magnetic disturbance field. It is derived from magnetic field measurements in space, from the Swarm and CHAMP satellites, and it varies smoothly as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity, the dipole tilt angle and F10.7 index. Although the AMPS model describes the magnetic field in space, corresponding disturbances on ground can be calculated from the associated electric current system. Comparisons with data show that ground magnetic disturbances are typically underestimated in such calculations. When averaging over longer time windows, this tendency gets more pronounced, while the correlation improves. We interpret this behaviour in terms of two effects: The statistical properties of the solar wind-magnetosphere system, and the effect of ground induced currents.
13:25	First results from the Daedalus Mission Phase-0 Study	Sarris, T et al.	Invited Oral
	Theodoros Sarris[1], Anita Aikio[2]; Stephan Buchert[3], Mark Clilverd[4], Iannis Dandouras[5], Eelco Doornbos[6], Roderick Heelis[7], Nickolay Ivchenko[8], Therese Moretto Jørgensene[9], Guram Kervalishvili[10], David Knudsen[11], David Malaspina[12], Aurélie Marchaudon[5], Octav Marghitu[13], Tomoko Matsuo[14], Wojciech Miloch[15] Nils Olsen[16], Minna Palmroth[17], Robert Pfaff[18], Claudia Stolle[10], Elsayed Talaat[19], Pekka Verronen[20], Pieter Visser[21]
	[1]Democritus University of Thrace / Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, [2]University of Oulou, [3]Swedish Institute of Space Physics, [4]British Antarctic Survey, [5]Research Institute in Astrophysics & Planetology, Toulouse, [6]Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, [7]University of Texas at Dallas, [8]KTH Royal Institute of Technology / School of Electrical Engineering, [9]University of Bergen / Department of Physics and Technology, [10]GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences / Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, [11]University of Calgary / Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, [12]University of Colorado / Laboratory for Atmospheric & Space Physics, [13]Institute for Space Sciences, Bucharest / Space Plasma and Magnetometry Group, [14]University of Colorado / Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, [15]University of Oslo / Dept. of Physics, [16]Technical University of Denmark / National Space Institute, [17]University of Helsinki, [18]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center / Heliop
	The Daedalus mission has been proposed to the European Space Agency (ESA) in response to the call for ideas for the Earth Observation programme’s Earth Explorers. It was selected in 2018 as one of three candidates for Earth Explorer 10, and is currently undergoing a Phase-0 Science and Requirements Consolidation Study. The goal of the mission is to quantify the key electrodynamic processes that determine the structure and composition of the upper atmosphere, the gateway between the Earth’s atmosphere and space. An innovative preliminary mission design allows Daedalus to access electrodynamics processes down to altitudes of 150 km and below. Daedalus will perform in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature, ion drift, neutral density and wind, ion and neutral composition, electric and magnetic fields and precipitating particles. These measurements will quantify the amount of energy deposited in the upper atmosphere during active and quiet geomagnetic times via Joule heating and energetic particle precipitation, estimates of which currently vary by orders of magnitude between models. In this presentation, results from the Daedalus Phase-0 Science Study will be shown: goals of this study are to consolidate the mission objectives, to establish the mission requirements, and to implement forward models and geophysical input scenes needed to assess the mission objectives, based on observation scenarios, realistic geophysical conditions, and including disturbing factors. Finally, a goal of this study is to demonstrate the sensitivity of the observation concept through simulations.
13:50	How increasing the number of ground magnetometer stations affects geomagnetic indices: comparing AE, Dst and their SuperMAG counterparts	Chapman, S et al.	Oral
	Aisling Bergin[1], Sandra Chapman[1], Jesper Gjerloev[2,3]
	[1] Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Physics Dept., University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK, [2] Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland, USA, [3] Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
	Geomagnetic indices are frequently used in the characterization of space weather events and the overall level of space weather activity. The auroral electrojet (AE) index [1] and the disturbance storm time (Dst) index [2] are two such indices which have been recorded almost continuously for multiple solar cycles. SuperMAG [3], provides a collated full set of ground based magnetometer observations and have produced analogues to AE and Dst which span the last four solar cycles. SME is an electrojet index which shares methodology with AE. SMR is a ring current index which shares methodology with Dst. SME and SMR are derived from a larger set of ground based magnetometer observations and hence are at higher spatial resolution than AE and Dst. We compare the statistical distributions of AE with SME and Dst with SMR for the last four solar maxima. We perform a quantitative statistical characterization of how well the indices track each other and hence how well they may resolve excursions in geomagnetic activity that are sufficiently large to have potential space weather impacts. Whilst Dst and SMR track each other, AE and SME successively diverge for events of increasing size. We can reproduce this observed behaviour from simple first-principles models that capture the different construction methodology for AE(SME) and Dst(SMR). [1] Davis, T. N., Sugiura, M. (1966) Auroral electrojet activity index AE and its universal time variations, Journal of Geophysical Research; Vol. 71 Issue 3, p785-801, 17p [2] Sugiura, M. (1964), Hourly values of equatorial Dst for the IGY, Ann. Int. Geophys., 35, 9, Pergamon Press, Oxford. [3] Gjerloev, J. W. (2012), The SuperMAG data processing technique, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A09213, doi:10.1029/2012JA017683
14:05	On the nightglow polarisation : a new window for space weather observations?	Bosse, L et al.	Oral
	Léo Bosse[1], Jean Lilensten[1,5], Nicolas Gillet[3], Sylvain Rochat[1], Alain Delboulbé[1], Stephane Curaba[1], Alain Roux[1], Yves Magnard[1], Magnar G. Johnsen[2], Pierre-Olivier Amblard[3], Nicolas le Bihan[3], Maxime Nabon[1]
	[1]Institut de Planétologie et d'Astrophysique de Grenoble (IPAG) CNRS – UGA, France; [2]GIPSA-lab, Dept. Images and Signals, UMR CNRS, France; [3]IsTerre, CNRS – UGA, France; [4]Tromsø Geophysical Observatory University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway; [5]Honorary astronomer at Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
	Our space environment is a dynamical layer strongly connected to the solar activity. It can be monitored through its emissions, nowadays popular through the polar lights. Their polarisation has been advocated with no clear evidence from 1919 to 1947. A polemic closed the topics and the belief remained that collisions would prevent polarisation to occur. Our group confirmed in 2008, with a dedicated photopolarimeter, that despite the previous dispute, the red line at 630 nm is polarised. Since then, we demonstrated that the Degree of Linear Polarisation (DoLP) is a proxy of the thermosphere composition and the Angle of Linear Polarisation (AoLP) a possible tracer of the geomagnetic configuration. New questions came up. Could other lines be polarised that would monitor the upper atmosphere at other altitudes? Does that stand at all latitudes? These would open a totally new way to monitor the space environment all around the planet with many operational space weather applications. To this purpose, we built a totally new instrument, called “Petit Cru”. This communication presents the first results obtained with Petit Cru on the polarisation of the nightglow emissions in the auroral and polar zones as well as at mid latitude. We show that several emissions are polarized, allowing a monitoring over a span of altitudes (from 85 to 230 km). The angle of polarisation currently provides no straightforward interpretation (in relation with secondary polarizations by Rayleigh diffusion). However, we find that the degree of linear polarisation is related to the nightglow intensity.
14:20	DTM2019 in the framework of the H2020 project SWAMI	Bruinsma, S et al.	Invited Oral
	Sean Bruinsma
	CNES, Space Geodesy Office, Toulouse, France
	In the framework of the H2020 project SWAMI funded by the European Commission (EC), which started in January 2018, a new whole atmosphere model (0-1500 km) is under development. The model will be constructed by blending two existing models, the Drag Temperature Model (DTM) and the Unified Model (UM). The CNES thermosphere specification model DTM2013, which was developed in a previous EC project (ATMOP), is being improved by assimilating more density data to drive down remaining biases as a function of solar activity and seasons mainly. The intermediate model DTM2018 was presented last year; the topic of this presentation is DTM2019, which uses high cadence geomagnetic indices (so-called Hp indices). A short review of the DTM model and the assimilated data will be given, and DTM2013/2018/2019 performance is evaluated by comparisons with data.
14:45	Potential of TIMED/GUVI limb observations for medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances study at mid-latitudes	Wautelet, G et al.	Oral
	Gilles Wautelet, Benoît Hubert, Jean-Claude Gérard
	Université de liège
	At mid-latitudes, medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) are the most recurrent type of ionospheric irregularities. During daytime, the common source of MSTIDs is the propagation of atmospheric gravity waves whose origin is generally found in the lower atmosphere. In the nighttime hours, the Perkins instability induces another type of MSTIDs that is correlated with the appearance of sporadic E layers, sometimes leading to spread-F signatures in ionograms. MSTIDs climatology and characterization have been extensively described during the last two decades, mainly using GNSS measurements. However, only few studies are devoted to the description of their vertical structure and the monitoring of their propagation into the ionosphere, which is helpful to understand their dissipation processes and their physical origin. The NASA’s TIMED mission was launched in December 2001 on a 74° inclination low-Earth orbit at an altitude of 625 km, which allowed to cover both low and high-latitude regions. The Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) instrument aimed at remotely sense, among others, the ionospheric ion and electron densities. GUVI performs disk observations and limb scans in five FUV wavelength channels, making it an ideal tool to characterize the vertical structure of the ionosphere as well as to contextualize the study. The purpose of this work is to use GUVI limb scans to characterize MSTIDs preliminary detected by GNSS in mid-latitudes before December 2007, after which the instrument exclusively supplied disk observations. We first select a few MSTID cases during solar maximum conditions that were observed in the Total Electron Content (TEC) by GNSS ground stations. Then, we combine our dataset with GUVI limb observation of the OI-135.6 nm emission to characterize the vertical structure of the MSTIDs. At last, concurrent observations from ionosondes located in the vicinity of the region where the GNSS and GUVI data were obtained will also provide an interesting cross-comparison dataset.
15:00	The SMILE mission: A novel way to study solar-terrestrial interactions	Rae, J et al.	Oral
	I. J. Rae[1], G. Branduardi-Raymont[1], C. Wang[2], C. P. Escoubet[3], S. Sembay[4], E. Donovan[5], L. Dai[2], L. Li[2], J. Li[2], D. Agnolon[3], A. Read[4], E. L. Spanswick[5], D. Sibeck[6], H. Connor[7], T. Sun[2], J. Carter[4], A. Samsonov[1], H. Laakso[8]
	[1] MSSL/UCL, UK, [2] NSSC/CAS, China, [3] ESA/ESTEC, The Netherlands, [4] University of Leicester, UK, [5] University of Calgary, Canada [6] GSFC/NASA, USA, [7] University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA, [8] ESA/ESAC, Spain
	The interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere, and the geospace dynamics that result, comprise some of the key questions in space plasma physics. In situ measurements by a fleet of solar wind and magnetospheric missions now provide the most detailed observations of the Sun-Earth connections. However, we are still unable to quantify the global effects of the drivers of such connections, including the conditions that prevail throughout geospace. This information is the key missing link for developing a complete understanding of how the Sun gives rise to and controls the Earth's plasma environment and space weather. SMILE (Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer) is a novel self-standing mission dedicated to observing the solar wind - magnetosphere coupling via simultaneous X-ray imaging of the magnetosheath and polar cusps, UV imaging of global auroral distributions and in situ solar wind/magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field measurements. Remote sensing of the magnetosheath and cusps with X-ray imaging is now possible thanks to the discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emission, first observed at comets, and subsequently found to occur in the vicinity of the Earth's magnetosphere. SMILE is a collaborative mission between ESA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) that was selected in November 2015, adopted into ESA’s Cosmic Vision Programme in March 2019, and is due for launch at the end of 2023. The science that SMILE will deliver, as well as the technical developments currently ongoing, will be presented.

Monday November 18, 16:00 - 17:15, Elisabeth

16:00	Ionospheric plasma irregularities at high latitudes studied with the Swarm satellites	Miloch, W et al.	Oral
	Wojciech Miloch[1], Yaqi Jin[1], Chao Xiong[2], Daria Kotova[1], Andres Spicher[1],Guram Kervalishvili[2], Lasse Clausen[1], Claudia Stolle[2]
	[1] Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway [2] GFZ - Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
	The Earth’s ionosphere is often subject to instabilities and turbulence resulting in irregularities in plasma density at various scales and at all latitudes. Plasma irregularities can influence the propagation of trans-ionospheric radio signals, and as such they can impact positioning with the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as GPS, Galileo or GLONASS. Examples of measurable effects are radio wave scintillations in the phase and amplitude, which are significant issues at low geomagnetic latitudes and in the polar regions. To get more insight into formation of ionospheric plasma irregularities at high latitudes, we use the Ionospheric Plasma IRregularities (IPIR) data product based on in-situ measurements by the Swarm satellites. IPIR allows for a global characterisation of ionospheric irregularities along the whole satellite track. We focus on the irregularity parameters from the electron density in terms of the rate of change of density index and electron density gradients, and also use the rate of change of total electron content index as the irregularity parameter based on the global positioning system data. After demonstrating the use of IPIR with a case study, we perform a larger climatological study. It is shown that plasma irregularities dominate near the dayside cusp, polar cap, and the nightside auroral oval. These irregularities may be associated with the large‐scale plasma structures such as polar cap patches, auroral blobs, auroral particle precipitation, and the equatorward wall of the ionospheric trough. The plasma irregularities are also controlled by the solar activity within the current declining solar cycle and their spatial distributions of irregularities depend on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. There is a clear asymmetry in the spatial distribution in the cusp and in the polar cap between the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH). The irregularities in the SH polar cap show a seasonal variation with higher values from September to April, while the seasonal variation in the NH is only obvious around the solar maximum during 2014–2015.
16:15	Comparison of ionospheric plasma irregularities measured by Swarm with the ground-based GPS scintillation data	Kotova, D et al.	Oral
	Daria Kotova, Yaqi Jin, Wojciech Miloch
	Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
	Ionospheric irregularities are often the cause of GNSS precise positioning errors, as well as disruption of radio communications in the HF range. The reason for the occurrence of these irregularities can be various non-stationary processes in the near-Earth space plasma that depend on the response of the ionosphere to the variations in the near Earth space. Therefore, the study of ionospheric irregularities is an urgent scientific and applied problem. In this study we use a global product based on the Swarm satellite measurements that characterizes ionospheric irregularities and fluctuations. The IPIR (Ionospheric Plasma IRregularities product) provides characteristics of plasma density structures in the ionosphere, of plasma irregularities in terms of their amplitudes, gradients and spatial scales and assigns them to geomagnetic regions and consequently to predominant plasma processes. It also provides indication, in the form of a numerical value index, on their severity for the integrity of trans-ionospheric radio signals and hence the accuracy of GNSS precise positioning. In this work we made validations of the IPIR product against the ground-based measurements, focusing on GPS TEC and scintillation data in low latitudes regions.
16:30	Detector of Solar flare effects on geomagnetism and ionosphere based on GNSS and ionosonde data.	Blanch, E et al.	Oral
	Curto, J.J. [1], Juan, J.M. [2], Altadill, D. [1], Timoté, C. [2], Blanch, E. [1], Segarra, A. [1]
	[1] Observatori de l’Ebre, (OE) CSIC – Universitat Ramon Llull (URL), 43520 Roquetes, Spain [2] Research Group of Astronomy and Geomatics (gAGE) Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
	Solar flares are severe events of Space Weather that can produce significant effects on the Earth illuminated hemisphere. The sudden increase in radiation causes an immediate increase in the ionization at different heights of the ionosphere. The disturbance resulting from a solar flare can be observed in the magnetograms as Solar Flare Effects (Sfe) and can produce significant disturbances in the radio wave propagation known as Short Waves Fade-outs (SWF) or ionospheric absorption. So, an early and automatic detection of these events are of great importance. In this sense, we present the use of a GNSS Solar Flare Monitor (GNSS-SF) and its utility to provide alerts of ionization disturbances. This tool can be used to confirm the occurrence of Sfe events in geomagnetism and it can also be used as a warning for radio wave propagation disturbances. In this line, we compare the results of the GNSS-SF monitor together with the variation of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of radio signals reflected in the ionosphere observed in the ionosonde measurements for X-class solar flares. We conclude that GNSS-SF monitor can serve as a warning tool of Space Weather effects associated with solar flares on the geomagnetism and ionosphere and that digisonde data can be used to develop an ionospheric indicator to estimate the ionospheric absorption of radio waves resulting from solar energetic emissions.
16:45	Localized enhancements of electron concentration during the maximum of the 24th solar cycle	Edemskiy, I et al.	Oral
	Ilya K. Edemskiy
	Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Prague, Czech Republic
	Global ionospheric maps allow us to investigate spatial dynamics of large structures in ionosphere such as localized TEC (total electron content) enhancements (LTEs), which were shown to occur in direct dependence on solar activity [Edemskiy et al., DOI: 10.5194/angeo-36-71-2018]. Analysis of the maps showed the presence of about 260 LTEs in the Southern Hemisphere during 2014-2015, the period of the highest solar activity in the 24th solar cycle. To exclude possible artifacts of interpolation, we investigate in details 72 (51 in 2014 and 21 in 2015) enhancements, which presence was confirmed by in-situ satellite measurements. Typically, LTE develops within 40°-60°S of magnetic latitude quasi-parallel to geomagnetic equator and lasts in average 10-12 hours. Some of them remain observable during more than a day. Most of the enhancements are observed during disturbed periods characterized by negative Dst and southward IMF component with negative median values in 84% (Dst) and 58% (Bz) cases. We do not observe clear correlation between duration or intensity of LTE and solar flares or coronal mass eruptions. Here we discuss possible reasons and necessary conditions of LTE generation, trying to understand the mechanism of the generation.
17:00	Comparisons of electron density profiles given by Autoscala and corresponding measurements obtained from incoherent scatter radar	Scotto, C et al.	Oral
	Carlo Scotto and Dario Sabbagh
	Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
	A large number of ionograms recorded by the digisonde of Millstone Hill in the period 1996-2018 has been automatically interpreted by the new version of Autoscala. Data from Incoherent Scatter radar were used to assess the performance of the program in term of accuracy of the provided electron density profile Ne(h) and F2-layer peak true height (hmF2). The results are evaluated in different heliogeophysical conditions, highlighting in particular the behavior of the software in response to the ionograms recorded during geospheric storms.

Posters

1	An adaptive high-latitude co-ordinate system for ionospheric empirical models and climatologies	Chisham, G et al.	p-Poster
	Gareth Chisham
	British Antarctic Survey
	Empirical models and climatologies of polar ionospheric processes and variations are crucially important components of ionospheric space weather applications. Such models allow the tracking of ionospheric plasma density enhancements such as polar patches, which can disrupt and attenuate radio communications through the ionosphere, or allow the estimation of Joule heating, which increases the atmospheric drag on low-Earth orbiting satellites. One common feature in the development of previous empirical models is that measurements have been combined and averaged on fixed co-ordinate grids. However, there are significant differences between the dominant processes within the polar cap, the auroral oval, and equatorward of the auroral oval. These boundaries are in continual motion due to the shifting nature of the auroral oval in response to changes in the outer magnetosphere. As a consequence, models that are developed by combining and averaging data in fixed co-ordinate grids heavily smooth the variations that occur near the boundary locations. The goal of this work is to aid researchers seeking to use adaptive, high latitude coordinates, based on auroral oval boundaries, in their studies. These include expanding the existing database of IMAGE FUV open-closed field-line boundaries (OCBs) to include equatorward auroral oval boundaries and details of how to convert between adaptive, high-latitude coordinates (with either only an OCB, or both an OCB and equatorward auroral boundary) and geographic or geomagnetic coordinates.
2	Upper neutral atmosphere and ionosphere monitoring from spectrometric and radio sounding measurements over Eastern Siberia	Medvedeva, I et al.	p-Poster
	Irina Medvedeva and Konstantin Ratovsky
	Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, SB RAS, 664033, Irkutsk P/O Box 291, 126a Lermontov Str., Russia
	Simultaneous ground-based observations on the state of the upper neutral atmosphere and ionosphere in monitoring mode provide information on manifestation of the atmospheric wave activity in the upper atmosphere, and on the effects of solar and geomagnetic activity. We present the results of comparative analysis of the variations in the atmospheric temperature at the mesopause height (Tm) and in the F2 peak electron density (NmF2) from the long-term experimental data from the complex of optical and radio physical instruments of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. For the analysis, the datasets on the OH((6-2), 834.0 nm, ~87 km) rotational temperature obtained from the spectrometric measurements of the OH emission (51.8°N, 103.1°E), and on NmF2 from Irkutsk DPS-4 Digisonde (52.3º N, 104.3º E) for 2008-2018 were used. Variations in the Tm and NmF2 were analyzed depending on solar activity. It was found, that for the analyzed time interval, the solar response of mean annual mesopause temperature to solar activity is 1.5 K / 100 SFU. Regression analysis of the dependence of the peak electron density on solar activity (F10.7) revealed high correlation. The technique for estimating the atmospheric and ionospheric variability, which allow us to analyze manifestation of the wave activity in a wide range of the upper atmosphere, is described. The main regularities of the seasonal behavior of the atmospheric variability at the mesosphere and low thermosphere (MLT) heights and ionospheric variability in the F2-region over Eastern Siberia are shown. By using that technique, we investigated manifestation of activity of the atmospheric waves with different time scales (with periods of planetary waves, tides, and internal gravity waves (IGW)) in the upper atmosphere during winter major and minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), and during seasonal transitions of the atmospheric circulation. It was revealed, that the analyzed minor SSW results to significant enhancement of the manifestations of the wave activity in the tidal and IGW periods, whereas effects of the major SSW were mainly pronounced in day-to day atmospheric and ionospheric variabilities. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Grant No. 17-05-00192-a. Experimental data from the equipment of Center for Common Use «Angara» (http://ckp-rf.ru/ckp/3056/) obtained with budgetary funding of Basic Research program II.16 were used.
3	MUF(3000) nowcasting as operation space weather product	Sabbagh, D et al.	p-Poster
	Dario Sabbagh[1], Carlo Scotto[1], Paolo Bagiacchi[1]
	[1] Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
	Pan-European Consortium for Aviation Space weather User Services (PECASUS) is one of the three global Space Weather Centers for aviation space weather user services designed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The MUF(3000) nowcasting is one of the operational space weather products inserted in PECASUS. A mapping procedure is then applied to the European stations providing MUF(3000) nowcasting over the whole area. This procedure consists in upgrading the IRI-CCIR model using available real-time measurements and the Ordinary Kriging method for spatial interpolation. The following five storm periods have been analysed: four storms occurred during solar cycle 24 (09/2017-03/2015-05/2015-03/2012) and one occurred during solar cycle 23 (01/2005). A comparison between MUF(3000) predicted and MUF(3000) derived from ionosonde stations is presented.
4	Ionospheric characterization over Rome during low solar activity years by means of ground and satellite measurements	Sabbagh, D et al.	p-Poster
	Dario Sabbagh[1], Angelo De Santis[1], Alessandro Ippolito[1]*, Dedalo Marchetti[1][2], Loredana Perrone[1], Saioa Arqueo Campuzano[1], Alessandro Piscini[1], Claudio Cesaroni[1], Luca Spogli[1], Gianfranco Cianchini[1]
	[1]Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy, [2]School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China, *now at ASI (Italian Space Agency), Rome, Italy
	In situ electron density data by on board Langmuir probes of CHAMP and Swarm satellites in years of low solar activity during the last two solar cycles have been analyzed at Rome coordinates. The satellite data are compared with two different electron density backgrounds: the first background makes use only of the IRI-2016 model, while the second one is based on ionosonde data. The results of the comparison show that IRI model tends to overestimate electron density, while the use of ionosonde data makes the background more reliable. Ionosonde data at the ionospheric station of Rome have been also used to study the variations of the ionospheric parameter foF2, based on hourly observations. In addition, a single GNSS station analysis is applied to the Total Electron Content (TEC) data acquired by the Rome station GNSS receiver. The anomalies observed in each parameter have been then associated to the related geomagnetic conditions assessed according to the ap and AE geomagnetic indices, to better characterize the mid-latitude ionosphere behaviour under low solar activity. As expected for low solar activity conditions, fewer negative anomalies are found with respect to positive ones, particularly in low geomagnetic conditions.
5	Source regions and transmission rates of whistlers	Koronczay, D et al.	p-Poster
	Dávid Koronczay[1,2], János Lichtenberger[1,2], Mark Clilverd[3], Craig Rodger[4], Stefan I. Lotz[5], Dmitry Sannikov[6], Nina Cherneva[6], Tero Raita[7], Fabien Darrouzet[8], Sylvain Ranvier[8], Robert C. Moore[9]
	[1] Department of Geophysics and Space Sciences, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary; [2] Geodetic and Geophysical Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Sopron, Hungary; [3] British Antarctic Survey (NERC), Cambridge, UK; [4] Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; [5] Space Science Directorate, South African National Space Agency, Hermanus, South Africa; [6] Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation, FEB RAS, Paratunka, Russia; [7] Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; [8] Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium; [9] Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
	Whistlers are lightning generated very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic waves propagating through the magnetosphere. Whistlers detected on the ground have long been proven as practical tools to investigate the plasmasphere. In this study, we identified the distribution of source lightning corresponding to whistlers detected on the ground at fifteen different locations on Earth. We relied on data from AWDANet, a fully automated network of VLF receiver stations capable of automatically identifying and analysing whistlers. The two input sources were the time series of whistlers, covering more than ten years (2007-2018) and a database of lightning times and locations from the WWLLN global lightning detector network. Our analysis included over 80 million whistlers and 2 billion lightning strokes. We developed an improved method and applied to this dataset. We present the obtained source lightning and transmission rate maps and discuss the results. Our results conform to the accepted theory of ducted whistler propagation, and resolve the whistler excitation mystery that resulted from earlier, correlation based analys methods, concerning the source region of whistlers in Dunedin, New Zealand.
6	PAMELA space experiment data for the Earth Radiation Models and Space Weather studies.	Malakhov, V et al.	p-Poster
	Malakhov V.V.[1], Mayorov A.G.[1] on behalf of PAMELA collaboration
	[1] National Research Nuclear University "MEPhI"
	The PAMELA spectrometer is a multifunctional instrument for the study of different components of cosmic rays. The set of the particles data available for measurement includes protons, electrons and their antiparticles, light nuclei and their isotopes in the energy range from hundreds of MeV to hundreds of GeV. The instrument collected scientific information for ten years from 2006 to 2016 in different geomagnetic areas including polar, equatorial and the inner radiation belt, under different heliomagnetic conditions. Though the main task of the experiment was fundamental research the collected data can also be used for applied tasks such as providing data for the Earth Radiation Environment models or the space weather studies. In the report, an overview of the scientific data available from the PAMELA instrument will be presented.
7	Langmuir probes in the CSES electric field instruments - INTERACTIVE POSTER PRESENTATION, Tuesday 19/11, 15:45-16:15 (no printed poster)	Piersanti, M et al.	p-Poster
	Diego Piero[1], Piersanti Mirko[2], Bertello Igor[1], Candidi Maurizio[1], Ubertini Pietro[1]
	[1] National Insitute of Astrophysics and Planetology, Rome, Italy; [2] National Institute of Nuclear Physics, University of "Tor Vergata", Rome, Italy
	The CSES satellites was launched on 2 February 2018 into sun synchronous orbits at an altitude of approximately 500 km. The scientific objectives of CSES are to monitor the electromagnetic field and waves, plasma and particles perturbations of the atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere induced by natural sources and anthropocentric emitters, and to identify recurrent features in the preparation phases of seismic events. The global parameters of the ionospheric plasma are observed by two Langmuir Probes (LP) which are ubiquitous instruments on satellites. Nevertheless, this kind of instrument could work in various modes in order to better identify different plasma structures characterized by various spatial and temporal scales. Our analysis provides a comparison between plasma parameters observed by CSES by SWARM, which uses a different operating modes. We show that the discrepancies identified depends on both the latitudinal plasma features variability and the adopted working mode.
8	Satellite observing systems for Space Weather: the early contribution of CSES mission	Alexandra, P et al.	p-Poster
	A.Parmentier[1], on behalf of the CSES-Limadou Collaboration
	[1]National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN) - Division of Roma Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
	Since its launch in Feb 2018, CSES (China Seismo-Electromagnetic satellite) has joined the heterogeneous stream of satellite missions dedicated to the monitoring of electromagnetic-, plasma- and particle environments around the Earth. Italy participates in this international endeavor by the Limadou Project, aiming at the construction and scientific exploitation of the High-Energy Particle Detector (HEPD) on board CSES. Though primarily conceived as a mission with special focus on correlations between electromagnetic emissions induced by seismic/volcanic/anthropogenic activity and perturbations of the magnetosphere/ionosphere, so far CSES has also returned valuable, multi-instrument information about variations in the Earth-Sun interaction during geomagnetic-storm transients, which represents a straightforward low-energy extension of data from experiments such as PAMELA and AMS, as well as a complement to other environmental missions such as GOES and ACE. This is especially important in a period when many key space-weather instruments are by now well beyond the end of their expected life spans. Being the first element of a scheduled extended constellation of LEO satellites whose Phase II has just kicked off, CSES multiple payload has already proven a suitable equipment for entering the challenging region of space-weather investigation and space-climate modeling. Limadou is a joint Italian effort involving several Institutions and Agencies: ASI, INFN, TIFPA, INAF/IAPS, INGV, UTIU and IFAC.
9	Small-scale motions in solar filaments as the precursors of eruptions	Seki, D et al.	p-Poster
	Daikichi SEKI[1][2], Kenichi OTSUJI[1], Hiroaki ISOBE[3], Takako T. ISHII[1], Kiyoshi ICHIMOTO[1], and Kazunari SHIBATA[1]
	[1]Kyoto University, [2]University of Cambridge, [3]Kyoto City University of Arts
	Filaments, the dense cooler plasma floating in the solar corona supported by magnetic fields, generally exhibit certain activations before they erupt. In our previous study (Seki et al. 2017, ApJL), by virtue of observation in H-alpha center and red and blue wings by SMART/SDDI, we derived the LOS velocity at each pixels within a filament. We found that the degree of small-scale motions in the filament as measured by the standard deviation of the histogram of the LOS velocity distribution increased prior to the eruption of the filament. In this study, 12 filaments that vanished in Hα line center images were analyzed in a manner similar to the one in our previous work; these included two quiescent filaments, four active region filaments, and six intermediate filaments. We verified that in all the 12 events, the standard deviation of the LOS velocities increased before the filaments vanished. Moreover, we observed that the quiescent filaments had approximately 10 times longer duration of an increase in the standard deviation than the other types of filaments. We concluded that the standard deviation of the LOS velocities of the small-scale motions in a filament can potentially be used as the precursor of a filament eruption.
10	Post-storm thermospheric NO cooling - ?	Mikhailov, A et al.	p-Poster
	Andrey V. Mikhailov[1,2] and Loredana Perrone[2]
	(1)Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), (2)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV),
	A mechanism of the neutral gas density decrease at middle latitudes during the recovery storm phase is discussed. It is shown that well-known F2-layer storm-mechanism is sufficient to explain the observed neutral gas density changes and there is no need to attract a new “Post-storm NO overcooling” concept for this explanation, moreover this concept is very contradictory. Severe geomagnetic storms in equinoctial, summer, and winter seasons along with CHAMP and Swarm neutral gas density observations are analyzed. Our recently proposed method to retrieve thermospheric parameters from ionospheric observations is used for the analysis. Storm-induced atomic oxygen variation is shown to be the controlling process. In accordance with the F2-layer storm mechanism during summer and equinoctial seasons the disturbed thermospheric circulation brings at middle latitudes the air with low atomic oxygen concentration and satellites observe a decrease in neutral gas density during the recovery storm phase. Low atomic oxygen concentration corresponds to negative F2-layer storm effect. In winter the disturbed neutral composition is restricted to high latitudes and no decrease of neutral gas density takes place at middle latitudes even during severe storms. Unchanged neutral composition corresponds to positive NmF2 deviations or median conditions in the mid-latitude daytime F2-layer. Therefore well-known F2-layer storm morphology and the post-storm decrease of neutral gas density reflect the same storm-induced variations of atomic oxygen abundance in the upper atmosphere.
11	PRO-L* - A probabilistic L* mapping tool for ground and space observations in the radiation belts	Thompson, R et al.	p-Poster
	Rhys Thompson[1], Steven Morley[3], Clare Watt[2], Sarah Bentley[2], Paul Williams[2]
	[1] Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, [2] Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, [3] Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los alamos
	Both ground and space observations are used extensively in the modelling of space weather related processes within the Earth’s magnetosphere. In radiation belt physics modelling, radial distance is typically approximated using L*, which indicates the location of the drift paths of electrons in the equatorial plane. Global magnetic field models allow a subset of locations on the ground (mainly sub-auroral) to be mapped along field lines to a location in space and transformed into L*, provided that location maps to a closed drift path. This allows observations from ground, or low-altitude space-based platforms to be mapped into space in order to inform radiation belt modelling. Many data-based magnetic field models exist; however these models can significantly disagree on mapped L* values for a single point on the ground, during both quiet times and storms. We present a probabilistic L* mapping tool, Pro-L*, which produces probability distributions for L* corresponding to a given ground location. Pro-L* has been calculated for a high resolution magnetic latitude by MLT grid in the Earth’s northern hemisphere. We have developed the probabilistic model using 11 years of L* calculations for 7 popular magnetic field models. Usage of the tool is explained for both event studies and statistical models, and we demonstrate a number of potential applications. We will also discuss the implementation of this method in construction of a probabilistic L* model using a space-based grid.
13	Effects of VLF transmitter waves on the inner belt and slot region	Ross, J et al.	p-Poster
	Johnathan Ross, Nigel Meredith, Sarah Glauert, Richard Horne and Mark Clilverd
	British Antarctic Survey
	Signals from VLF transmitters can leak from the Earth-ionosphere wave guide into the inner magnetosphere, where they propagate in the whistler mode and contribute to electron dynamics in the inner radiation belt and slot region. Observations show that the waves from each VLF transmitter are highly localised, peaking on the nightside in the vicinity of the transmitter. In this study we use ~5 years of Van Allen probe observations to construct global statistical models of the bounce-averaged pitch angle diffusion coefficients for each individual VLF transmitter, as a function of L*, Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and geographic longitude. We construct a 1D pitch-angle diffusion model with implicit longitude and MLT dependence to show that VLF transmitter waves weakly scatter electrons into the drift loss cone. We find that global averages of the wave power, determined by averaging the wave power over MLT and longitude, capture the long-term dynamics of the loss process, despite the highly localised nature of the waves in space. We use our new model to assess the role of VLF transmitters waves, hiss waves, and Coulomb collisions on electron loss in the inner radiation belt and slot region. At moderate relativistic energies, E~500 keV, waves from VLF transmitters reduce electron lifetimes by an order of magnitude or more, down to the order of 200 days near the outer edge of the inner radiation belt. However, VLF transmitter waves are ineffective at removing multi-MeV electrons from either the inner radiation belt or slot region.
14	Polar Cap (PC) index calculation methods	Stauning, P et al.	p-Poster
	Peter Stauning
	Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
	The Polar Cap (PC) indices use the horizontal components of polar magnetic variations to provide scaled measures of the transpolar forward (noon to midnight) convection of plasma and fields driven by the interaction of the magnetosphere with the solar wind (Troshichev et al.,1988, 2006). The PCN (North) index is based on geomagnetic data from Qaanaaq (Thule) in Greenland while the PCS (South) index is based on data from Vostok in Antarctica. In the past, 7 different versions of the PCN index and 5 different versions of the PCS index have been in use (see Stauning, 2013). The different methods to derive calibration parameters (and errors in the procedures) have resulted in index series that are not compatible. Index values are not linearly related to each other between versions, among other, because the versions have different base lines and saturation levels. Thus, index values derived in one version could not be used, even by re-scaling, in formulas for features such as cross-polar cap electric fields or polar cap widths, derived with another version. The presentation shall give an overview of the adverse features of the dominant PC index versions and the consequences for derived features. Possible improvements of index calculation methods, particularly for real-time applications, shall be presented.
15	Reliable real-time on-line PC indices based on multiple data sources.	Stauning, P et al.	p-Poster
	Peter Stauning
	Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
	The standard PC indices, PCN (North) and PCS (South), are based on 1-min samples of geomagnetic data from Qaanaaq (Thule) and Vostok, respectively. The data are processed to reflect the transpolar convection that may carry plasma and magnetic fields from the front of the magnetosphere to the tail region building up excess energy that subsequently could be released in magnetic storm and substorm activity, which in turn could endanger power grids and other vital community systems. The access to multiple polar cap data sources for PC index calculations is considered essential for reliable space weather services using these indices (Stauning, 2018). The two standard observatories (Qaanaaq and Vostok) are located in harsh arctic environments with marginal internet connections making the index data supply rather vulnerable. For Vostok data, in particular, there have been lengthy intervals (years) of unavailability in the past. In the North-American region, the data from Resolute Bay magnetometer have been shown to provide alternative PCN indices of adequate quality. In Antarctica, the data from Concordia Dome-C observatory could provide data for high-quality alternative PCS indices. Further data sources are possible. Efforts should be devoted to enhance existing PC index services (e.g., http://pcindex.org) and ensure proper index derivation schemes and optimization of lead time in addition to development of software to handle the incoming data to derive reliable index values in real time. For the North American region, local solutions are feasible by using on-line geomagnetic data from Northern Canada (e.g., Alert, Eureka, Resolute) to provide reliable real-time PCN index values for space weather monitoring and forecasts such as GIC warnings.
16	Ionospheric now-casting for GNSS Space Weather products for Africa	Matamba, T et al.	p-Poster
	Tshimangadzo M. Matamba[1], Pierre J. Cilliers[1,2], Donald W. Danskin[1]
	[1]South African National Space Agency, Space Science Directorate, Hermanus, South Africa, [2]SpaceLab, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape Town, South Africa
	Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) are vulnerable to space weather impacts. Space weather may adversely affect GNSS by increasing the error of the computed position due to irregular electron density distribution, by loss-of-lock and loss of signal through significantly enhanced solar radio noise and by ionospheric scintillation of the GNSS signals. South Africa has been recognized by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as one of the regional centres to provide space weather products, including solar storm forecasts and warnings, to the global aviation sector. Among the products that South Africa through SANSA should deliver are regional maps of Near-Real Time (NRT) Total Electron Content (TEC) and NRT amplitude and phase scintillation indices. Ionospheric scintillations are rapid fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of radio signals caused by small-scale irregularities in the ionosphere. Loss-of-lock occurs in GNSS receivers when strong ionospheric scintillation is present making the proper acquisition and continuous tracking of the signal impossible. Loss-of-lock on some GNSS satellites degrades the accuracy of the estimated position. This paper will presents the first results from NRT ionospheric scintillation monitoring using dedicated Scintillation receivers in Pwani, Kenya (39.78⁰E, 3.24⁰S) and in Hermanus (34.42⁰E, 19.22⁰S), South Africa, which are equatorial and mid-latitude stations respectively. Furthermore the regional NRT TEC maps, which are updated every 15-minutes, will also be presented for the first time.
17	Estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC measurements over South Africa during geomagnetic storms	Tshisaphungo, M et al.	p-Poster
	Mpho Tshisaphungo[1,2], John Bosco Habarulema[1,2], Lee-Anne McKinnell[1,2]
	[1]South African National Space Agency, Hermanus, 7200, South Africa, [2]Department of Physics and Electronics, Rhodes University, Grahamstown 6140, South Africa
	The total electron content (TEC) and critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) are well known to be linearly correlated. In this presentation, a relationship between TEC and $foF2$ is established using four South African ionosonde and their Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) co-located stations. The main purpose of this presentation is to show the development of a spatial resolution database of daily $foF2$ deviation from the respective monthly median values ($\Delta foF2$) over the South African region and discuss the attempt to model the ionospheric storm effects during geomagnetic storms. Polynomial regression analysis has been applied in determining the expression between TEC and $foF2$ during both quiet and storm time conditions. The data used is for periods when both GPS and ionosonde measurements were available for all four co-located stations: Grahamstown (2006 - 2016), Hermanus (2009 - 2016), Louisvale (2004 - 2016), and Madimbo (2003 - 2016). The results from quiet time polynomial expression were used to estimate monthly median values of $foF2$ and the storm time expression for daily values of $foF2$. The results of the derived and measured $foF2$ based on established expressions were validated using storm periods not included when obtaining the relationship coefficients. A statistical analysis of the results are presented together with the performance of the method used. A comparison between the derived $foF2$ data and radio occultation (RO) measurements, at GNSS locations which are further away from ionosonde stations, are also discussed. The overall results indicate that the technique used in this study is suitable for estimating $foF2$ from TEC data with minimal frequency errors during geomagnetic storms.
18	The signature of external drivers from Swarm satellite data	Pais, M et al.	p-Poster
	Diana Saturnino[1], Fernando Pinheiro[2], Maria Alexandra Pais[2,3], João Domingos[2,3]
	[1]LPGNantes, CNRS and University of Nantes, Nantes, France. [2]CITEUC, Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal. [3]Physics Department, University of Coimbra, 3004-516 Coimbra, Portugal.
	The separation of contributions from different sources in the magnetic field signal measured at satellite altitude continues to be an issue. The approach to this problem may either use parameterized functions as in the CM comprehensive models or non-parametric statistical methods. As an example of the latter, Principal Component Analysis has been applied in prospective studies to decompose the geomagnetic field series, built at Virtual Observatories (VO) from Swarm data. In Domingos et al. (2019), a resolved PCA mode of annual periodicity and of approximately zonal quadrupolar radial pattern was found, possibly due to ionospheric or magnetospheric sources. Here, we follow a similar approach to Domingos et al. (2019) but computing VO series in a different way, where no data has been eliminated on the basis of strong external contributions, and an Equivalent Source Dipole mathematical model has been used to reduce a cloud of data points to one VO ’observation’. In this way, we expect to be able to better characterize principal modes from external sources. To help to identify the sources of external modes, we make use of Tsyganenko and Sitnov (2005) semi-empirical model for the magnetosphere. This kind of study will contribute to improving current knowledge on different external sources and how to separate them. Results may be used to develop proxies that monitor the dynamics of specific external sources and, ultimately, they can be used in alert systems for the space weather effects.
19	The occurrence of plasma bubble and its relation to the vertical drift	Chen, Y et al.	p-Poster
	Yanhong Chen, Wengeng Huang, Ercha Aa, Siqing Liu, Jiancun Gong
	National space science center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
	In this paper, the plasma bubbles observations from ROCSAT-1 satellite between January 2000 and May 2004 with longitude limited in 90oE－150oE are used for studying the mechanism of ESF’s production at low latitude. The statistical study indicates the occurrence of the plasma bubbles increasing with the solar activity. In the spring and autumn of high solar activity, about 50 percent days have the plasma bubble observed. The bubbles mainly occurred about ±30o magnetic latitude region, and mainly at the geomagnetic quiet condition, occasionally at storm time. The bubbles during a major-severe storm mainly happened after midnight. The vertical drift observation from ROCSAT-1 satellites indicates there is always a significant polarized eastward electric field associated with the plasma bubbles at pre-midnight. But after midnight the association is seldom happened. At geomagnetic disturbed period, the penetration of the eastern electric field can cause the plasma bubbles after midnight.
20	Cosmic ray spectral index by two coupling functions using data from the neutron monitor network	Ksaplanteris, L et al.	p-Poster
	Loukas Xaplanteris, Maria Livada, Helen Mavromichalaki
	Nuclear and Particle Physics Department, Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Zografos, 15784 Athens, Greece
	The derivation of the coupling function between the primary and the secondary cosmic ray particles through a completely theoretical way, using Quantum Field Theory (QFT) is attempted for first time. More specifically, cosmic rays are an interesting and promising field of physics with a wide variety of phenomena and applications that require technical as well as theoretical understanding. In this work, after a short study of the solar and geomagnetic background of the Forbush decreases of March 2012, the cosmic ray spectral index values based on daily cosmic ray data of the neutron monitor network were calculated. Applying to these data two different coupling functions of the secondary to the primary cosmic rays, the spectral index values during these Forbush decreases were calculated following the technique of Wawrzynczak and Alania (2010). The first coupling function is based on the Yield function of Mishev et al. (2013) and the second is a new one theoretically determined using Quantum Field Theory calculations. It was pointed out that the estimated values of the spectral index of these events follow in both cases the structure of the Forbush decrease. The study and the calculation of the cosmic ray spectral behavior during such events are important for Space Weather and Space Climate applications.
21	MAG-SWE-DAN: Enhancing Magnetometer Observations in Sweden, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland	Edwards, T et al.	p-Poster
	Thom R. Edwards, Anna Naemi Willer, Lars William Pedersen, Tobias Bjerg
	DTU Space, Denmark Technical University
	A collaboration between the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU), known as the MAG-SWE-DAN project, is now underway. This project will provide enhanced magnetometer data in Sweden, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland, including six new stations within Sweden and eight new and upgraded stations within Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. Each station will provide 1 second data using a new datalogger system based on the RaspberryPi single board computer. This extension will join the already well developed network of magnetometers and provide a more complete coverage of magnetometer stations throughout the polar regions. Both the finer time resolution and spatial coverage developed by this project are desirable for space weather research and forecasting applications. Data from this project will be incorporated into the ESA Space Safety Geomagnetic Expert Service Center, and will be accessible directly from DTU.
22	EISCAT_3D data portal: The EOSC-CC support project	Häggström, I et al.	p-Poster
	Ingemar Häggström[1], Carl-Fredrik Enell[1], Andrei Tsaregorodtsev[2], Andrii Lytovchenko[2], Ari Lukkarinen[3]
	]1] EISCAT Scientific Association, Kiruna, Sweden [2] CNRS-IN2P3, Marseille, France [3] CSC, Espoo, Finland
	We present an overview of the latest developments in the data and e-infrastructure support projects for EISCAT 3D. The data portal and job submission system is being developed in the EOSC-Hub Competence Centre for EISCAT 3D. The CC will deploy and integrate necessary tools, services and infrastructures for the challenges of data management and processing for the EISCAT_3D ramp-up by 2021. DIRAC interware is used as an integration component with a single access point towards e-Infrastructures. Together with DIRAC, the EUDAT's B2 services helps to unify the data management and discovery system across different storages, including storage access management. EGI and INDIGO services will help deploying the software stack on HPC/HTC systems including release management. The project also provides secondary services for production operation (e.g. user authentication and access control). Test users are welcome to try the data portal and job submission.
23	Influence of the substorm precipitations and polar cap patches on the GPS signals at high latitudes	Belakhovsky, V et al.	p-Poster
	V.B. Belakhovsky[1], Y. Jin[2], W.J. Miloch[2], A.V. Koustov[3], and A. Reimer[4]
	1 – Polar Geophysical Institute, Apatity, Russia 2 – Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway 3 – Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada 4 – SRI International, Menlo Park, California, USA
	This study investigates the influence of substorm-related energetic particle precipitations and polar cap patches (PCP) on GPS signal scintillations in the high-latitude ionosphere. A number of events in 2010-2017 are considered. We use data collected by the GPS scintillation receiver (University of Oslo) at Ny-Ålesund. Substorms are identified through optical observations at 630.0 nm in Ny-Ålesund as well as IMAGE magnetometer data. Occurrence of polar cap patches is determined by using electron density data from the EISCAT 42-m radar at Svalbard and by considering optical observations at Ny-Ålesund. For some events, we show the onset of PCPs on the dayside and their propagation into the nightside, where the GPS receiver is located, by considering data from the Resolute Bay (Canada) incoherent scatter radar and the SuperDARN radars. We demonstrate that substorm-associated precipitations can lead to a strong GPS phase scintillations up to ~3 radians which is much stronger than those usually produced by PCPs. On the other hand, PCPs can lead to a much faster rate of TEC variations. Our observations suggest that the substorms and PCPs, being different types of the high-latitude disturbances, lead to the development of different types and scales of ionospheric irregularities.
24	The University of Colorado's Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center Space Weather Portal - a Tool for Lowering the Barrier to Data Access	Baltzer, T et al.	p-Poster
	Thomas Baltzer[1], Jennifer Knuth[1], Doug Lindholm[1], Christopher Pankratz[1], Thomas E. Berger[2]
	[1] University of Colorado Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics [2] University of Colorado Space Weather Technology, Research, and Education Center (SWx TREC)
	In our work with researchers and educators, we consistently hear that a significant barrier they encounter is obtaining datasets from disparate providers in varying formats and that having an idea of what is available (e.g. is there an instrument outage during the time of interest?) before downloading it is challenging. Further, obtaining similar datasets for different timeframes is equally difficult. This is particularly challenging for space weather researchers attempting to characterize an event from the moment of occurrence on the Sun to the time of impacts it has on the Earth since so many disparate datasets are available for so many different timeframes. As part of the University of Colorado’s Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center (SWx-TREC https://www.colorado.edu/spaceweather/), the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) is developing a Space Weather Portal (http://lasp.colorado.edu/space-weather-portal) to provide unified access to disparate datasets to help close the Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) gap. This poster will describe how this portal can be used to characterize an historical event (2015 St. Patrick’s day storm) from available datasets, visualize them and download them for further use. It will also describe the underlying middleware (LaTiS) that enables the portal.
25	Catalogs of solar proton events and their significance for space weather forecast	Vlasova, N et al.	p-Poster
	N.A. Vlasova[1], V.V. Kalegaev[1], G.A. Bazilevskaya[2], E.I. Daibog[1], E.A. Ginzburg[3], V.N. Ishkov[4], L.L. Lazutin[1], Yu.I. Logachev[1], M.D. Nguyen[1], G.M. Surova[1], O.S. Yakovchouk[1]
	[1] Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation, [2] Lebedev Physical Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation, [3] Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow, Russian Federation, [4] Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
	Space weather researches and particularly forecasting are impossible without existence of homogeneous experimental data for long term period. Catalogs of Solar Proton Events (SPE) provide information on one of significant parameters characterizing solar activity. The first SPE Catalogue (for 1955-1969) was created in 1975 by an international research group (with involvement of Soviet scientists) under the leadership of well-known solar physicists Z. Svestka & P.Simon. The next four Catalogues, published in 1983, 1990, 1998 and 2014, were created in the USSR and Russia by the team under the leadership of Yu.I. Logachev. Today a Catalogue of solar proton events as observed in the 24th cycle of solar activity (2008-2018) is creating. In the new Catalog the event maximum intensity of the >10 MeV protons on the Earth`s orbit was not less than 1 pfu =1 particle/(сm2ssr). The forthcoming Catalogue for the solar cycle 24, similarly to the Catalogue for the solar cycle 23, in addition to continuous calibrated series of energetic solar particle fluxes, will incorporate information on physical processes in particle sources on the Sun, accompanying phenomena in the X-ray and radio emissions and conditions in the near-Earth’s space as observed during each event under study. The solar cycle 24 differs significantly from the previous cycles in terms of frequency and characteristics of SPEs. Comparative study of SPE features in different solar cycles demands the homogeneous series of data. The Catalogue for the solar cycle 24, similarly to all previous Catalogues, will be placed in the World Data Center [http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/data/SPE/] and on the website of Space Monitoring Data Center of Moscow State University [http://smdc.sinp.msu.ru]. The SPE Catalogue for the solar cycle 23 is the only one placed in NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information at the Space Weather section [https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/interplanetary-data/solar-proton-events/documentation/]. Data of SPE Catalogs are needed not only for the helio- and geophysical researches and forecasting space weather. They are necessary for planning and ensuring radiation safety of spacecraft missions of various assignment, the main of which during the next decade will be the exploration of the Moon and preparation for human flights to Mars, where one of the main hazard is damage from solar and galactic rays. This study was supported by the Ministry of RFBR grant no. 19-02-00264.
26	Analysis of temperature and ozone disturbances in the low and middle stratosphere, during Space Weather events in the Antarctic Peninsula	López, V et al.	p-Poster
	Viviana Elisa López[1,2], Adriana M. Gulisano[3,4,5], Vanina Lanabere[2], Sergio Dasso[2,3,5]
	[1] Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, [2] Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Cs. de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, [3] CONICET – Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), [4] Instituto Antártico Argentino, Dirección Nacional del Antártico, [5] Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Física
	Geomagnetic storms are caused by solar and interplanetary events that generate disturbances in various regions of the terrestrial space environment; these events can last hours or days. Magnetospheric substorms are episodes of transport and dissipation of energy in the ionosphere and the magnetosphere, in time lapses of the order of 10 minutes to 3 hours, and are much more frequent than geomagnetic storms. The aim of this work is to study the variability of temperature and ozone profiles in the lower-middle stratosphere of the Antarctic region during Space Weather’s events. The data are obtained by ozone-radio soundings in the Marambio Station, and are provided by the National Meteorological Service of Argentina and the Meteorological Institute of Finland. Considering the Solar Cycles 23 (1998-2008) and 24 (2009-2018), and events of moderate and strong geomagnetic storms, and long substorms, the temporal variation of the profiles in height of the temperature and the time series of the Dst and AE indices that provide respectively a measure of the intensity of the energy contained in the Ring Current and a quantitative measure of the auroral magnetic activity, useful for the analysis of individual substorms. In addition, during these events, changes in the partial pressure of ozone (ppO3) were studied, for levels 9-13, 14-19 and 20-26 km, where the greatest variability of ozone occurs (Morozova et al. [ 2016]). These studies are preliminary and the results will be useful to better understand the possible impact of Space Weather events on the Antarctic atmosphere.
27	The first investigation of the Hp index, a Kp-like, high-cadence index available with 90, 60 and 30 minutes time resolution	Yamazaki, Y et al.	p-Poster
	Y. Yamazaki, G.N. Kervalishvili, J. Matzka, C. Stolle, and J. Rauberg
	GFZ Potsdam
	The Hp index family was developed in the framework of the H2020 project SWAMI (Space Weather Models and Indices) to improve space weather services. The Hp index is designed to be similar to the established 3-hourly Kp index but with a higher time resolution of 1.5, 1, and 0.5 hours. We compared the Hp indices with other geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters that are available with 1-minute time resolution. The correlation of Hp with AE and PC is better than for Kp and improves with increasing time resolution of the Hp index. The correlation of Hp and Kp with the SMR ring current index is poor to moderate. The correlation of Hp and Kp with solar wind speed and IMF Bz is poor, but the correlation with merging electric field, which is essentially the product of the solar wind speed and IMF Bz, is good with little seasonal dependency. The correlation of Hp with the merging electric field is slightly better than that for Kp. Also, the correlation of Hp with the merging electric field improves after consideration of a 20-min lag for the signal propagation from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere. A comparison of Hp and Kp during 5 severe geomagnetic storms shows good agreement. Hemispheric power estimated from Hp and Kp also shows good agreement, suggesting that the Hp index can be potentially used as an input for physics-based models, like TIEGCM. All these results indicate that the Hp indices are indeed similar to the traditional Kp index, but comes with the additional benefit of increased resolution of geomagnetic activity.
28	Evolution of periodicities with solar cycle for long-term solar time series.	Wauters, L et al.	p-Poster
	Wauters Laurence[1] , Dominique Marie[1], Dammasch I.E Ingolf[1], Meftah Mustapha[2]
	[1] Royal Observatory of Belgium, [2] LATMOS
	The periodograms of the spacial PROBA2/LYRA data show predominant periodicities comparable to the ones observed by other solar time series for the same time range. These periodicities have been found to slightly vary over time. Tracking their evolution on a long-term basis aims at identifying which periodicities are related to each other and at determining which physical processes are at their origin. A study has been made on ground based sunspot area (total and hemispheric), for which several solar cycles of data exist and for which the periodicities are close to the ones found in PROBA2/LYRA (for the same time range). We used framed Lomb-Scargle periodograms to extract the periodicities and check their evolution. Several significant periodicities behave similarly and seem to be harmonics of each other. The differential solar rotation and the magnetic solar cycle are highlighted by the results.
29	The forecast of the 25. Solar cycle with the ARMA model	Krcelic, P et al.	p-Poster
	Krcelic Patrik[1], Verbanac Giuliana[2]
	University of Zagreb [1, 2]
	The forecast of the 25. Solar cycle was made using the ARMA model analysis of the sunspot number and F10.7cm flux. We are currently at the end of 24. solar cycle and 25. solar cycle will start with minimum of the solar activity. We used statistical ARMA(7,7) model to make forecast, which gives very good results for the trend of the downgoing maximum of the cycles. Reason for this behaviour is the fact that the ARMA is statistic model and statistically there are more downgoing than upgoing trends of maximum of the cycle. The expected solar maximum will ocur in 2024. The upcomming cycle will be similar or a bit smaler than the current one. The ending of the 25. Solar cycle is predicted to be in 2029. The results are compareble with more recent predictions in other papers, which used different methods. This indicates that ARMA is a good and reliable method in space weather analysis.
30	Romanian Ionospheric Monitoring	Popescu, E et al.	p-Poster
	E. M. Popescu[1], E. I. Nastase[2], G. Chiritoi[1], A.Caramete[1], F. I. Constantin[1], A. I. Constantinescu[1], A. Muntean[2]
	[1]Institute of Space Science, [2]National Institute of Earth Physics
	We will present a precursor service dedicated to the monitoring of local ionospheric activity over the Romanian territory. The service will provide local TEC maps and ionospheric scintillation data determined using a local GNSS network containing more than 50 ground stations distributed across the territory of Romania.
31	A method of estimating equatorial plasma vertical drift velocity and its evaluation using C/NOFS observations	Alemu, H et al.	p-Poster
	Habtamu Marew[1], Melessew Nigussie[2], Debrup Hui[3], Baylie Damtie[4]
	[1] Washera geospace and radar science laboratory, Bahir Dar university, Ethiopia [2] Department of physics, Debre Tabor University, Ethiopia [3] Indian institute of geomagnetism, India
	To understand the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere and mitigate its effect on radio wave propagation, vertical ion drift velocity empirical models have been developed using limited ground based and/or space based observations. These models, however, have not yet been validated in detail using recent observations for sufficiently different longitudinal sectors. In this paper we have evaluated the performance of two empirical models and also propose a simplified vertical drift velocity model based on basic physics laws (i.e., Ampere's and Ohm's laws) that we call it parameterized drift velocity (PDV) model. These models have been applied to estimate the E region electric field and the associated F region E × B rift velocity using observed horizontal magnetic fields, due to equatorial electrojet current, as model driver input. Drift velocities obtained from these models are compared with the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite in situ vertical drift observations for different longitudinal sectors. It is found, for all longitudinal sectors considered in this study, that the vertical drift velocity obtained from a model based on physics laws has shown better agreement with C/NOFS observations as compared to the outputs of other empirical models. Moreover, it is shown that the Anderson empirical model performs better than the International Reference Ionosphere model.