Session CD7 - Space Weather Effects on Aviation
Alex Hands (University of Surrey, UK), Erwin De Donder (Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Belgium), Marcin Latocha, onsite (Seibersdorf Labor GmbH, Austria)
There are many diverse threats to aviation from space weather. Interruptions to high frequency (HF) communications, loss of SATCOM links and degradation of GPS navigation performance are associated respectively with various space weather phenomena such as X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms and polar cap absorption (PCA) of solar energetic particles. In addition, solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can lead to elevated dose rate to passengers and crew, as well as single event effects (SEE) in aircraft electronics (avionics). As technology advances (with more complex and sensitive electronic equipment, electric engines, …) in the aviation industry, new susceptibilities may show up caused by Space Weather (SWx). This creates new challenges for the space weather community to improve the modelling of the space weather modified environment and induced effects at flight altitude. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is attempting to address these concerns via four dedicated global space weather centers for the distribution of advisory information and alerts. The ICAO space weather manual outlines thresholds for these alerts based on moderate (MOD) and severe (SEV) levels of space weather intensity. While at European level, the development of ESA’s Space Weather Service Network with pre-operational services continues within the Space Safety (S2P) SWx programme.
We invite contributions on any topic relating to space weather effects on aviation particularly those that describe models and measurements that are relevant to the ICAO advisory thresholds. We encourage discussion on the suitability of the ICAO thresholds for space weather advisories and the scope for new measurement campaigns to enable comparisons between empirical data and model predictions during future events. We also invite the scientific community & service providers to present newly developed assets that may help in further improving the reliability/accuracy of space weather services and tools in support of the aviation community.
Monday October 24, 09:00 - 14:00, Poster AreaTalks
Monday October 24, 13:45 - 15:00, Fire HallClick here to toggle abstract display in the schedule
Talks : Time scheduleMonday October 24, 13:45 - 15:00, Fire Hall
|13:45||Impact of space weather driven absorption to high frequency communication - risk assessment||Fiori, R et al.||Oral|
| ||Robyn Fiori|
| ||Canadian Hazards Information Service, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada|
| ||High frequency communication is sensitive to space weather induced absorption that results from enhanced photoionization and energetic particle precipitation. A unified absorption model that combines the effects of shortwave fadeout, auroral absorption, and polar cap absorption was developed to determine the total absorption expected at 30 MHz across the entire high-latitude region. Historical data are used to drive this model to evaluate absorption over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere to determine the likelihood of absorption crossing impact thresholds where degradation and blackout of high frequency radio communication is expected. Results are presented separately for both the independent and unified absorption models, and are evaluated for diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle trends. Such a risk assessment is a valuable tool in mitigating the risk to high frequency radio communication. |
|14:00||The New MAIRE+ Model for Nowcasting the Aviation Radiation Environment||Ryden, K et al.||Oral|
| ||K Ryden , A Hands , F Lei , C Davis , B Clewer  and C Dyer |
| ||[1-5] Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey;  Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey and CSDRadConsultancy|
| ||Significant increases to the atmospheric radiation environment are recorded by a network of ground level neutron monitors as ground level enhancements (GLEs). These space weather phenomena pose a risk to aviation via single event effects (SEE) in aircraft electronics and ionising dose to passengers and crew. Under the UK Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme, we have developed a new model to provide nowcasts of the aviation radiation environment, including both the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) background and during GLE events. The Model for Atmospheric Ionising Radiation Effects (MAIRE+) uses multiple data sources to characterise primary GCR and GLE particle spectra and combines these with precalculated geomagnetic and atmospheric response matrices to predict particle fluxes from ground level to 20 km altitude across the entire globe. Two European neutron monitors (located at Oulu in Finland and Dourbes in Belgium) are used as the primary indicators of GLE intensity in order to maximise accuracy over UK airspace. Outputs from MAIRE+ for the historical GLEs in September and October 1989 are compared to recalibrated empirical data from a solid-state detector that was carried on Concorde in that period. The model will be hosted in the UK and will provide additional capability to the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC).|
|14:15||Potential Impact of GNSS Positioning Errors on the Satellite-navigation-based Air Traffic Management||Xue, D et al.||Oral|
| ||Dabin Xue[1,2], Jian Yang, and Zhizhao Liu|
| || Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China,  Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.|
| ||The traditional Air Traffic Management (ATM) is transforming to the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM), which relies on accurate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) navigation service, particularly during the final approach and landing phases. However, in the event of adverse space weather, there may be a significant increase in total electron contents (TEC) and irregularities in the ionosphere, which may cause considerable GNSS positioning errors. As a result, the aircraft navigation mode has to be switched from satellite navigation to ground navigation, which will reduce the airport acceptance rate and cause an imbalance between flight demands and airport capacity. The ATM authority will have to make tactical measures to remedy the problem, such as flight rescheduling and even cancellations. Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is one of the busiest airports in the world and Hong Kong, located in the equatorial ionosphere anomaly region, is prone to impacts of space weather. Thus, we have created a hypothesis scenario in this study by analyzing projected flight data from the HKIA during a simulated geomagnetic storm. Calculation results show that without an ionospheric delay forecast, the potential financial costs related to airlines due to flight delays, cancellations, and diversions could be over two million Euros. These costs decrease with an increased lead time of ionospheric delay forecast and the inaccurate ionospheric delay forecast can also result in significant extra costs. We also estimate the time cost of flight delays to passengers can be between 1.7 and 3.0 million Euros.|
|14:30||First steps towards space weather advisory validation for PECASUS||Van dam, K et al.||Oral|
| ||Kasper van Dam, Eelco Doornbos, Bert van den Oord|
| ||The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has called for the formation of dedicated global space weather centers that distribute advisories about the space weather conditions for civil aviation. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) participates in one such center: PECASUS (Partnership of Excellence for Civil Aviation Space weather User Services). Within this consortium KNMI is responsible for advisory verification (comply with requirements) and advisory validation (meet the needs). Following ICAO recommendations the space weather effects are divided into three categories: GNSS, high frequency communication and radiation. Depending on the effect, different data are used to issue advisories. We will discuss our approach on advisory validation and show some first results. Our aim is to focus on the automatic generation of comparison plots showing observational and/or model data from multiple sources during an event. In addition to data from PECASUS members, we will use observations from other organisations, including data that are not available in real-time. As many of these datasets rely on models, and as model validation is often difficult because of limited observations, in the long term we plan to participate in efforts to acquire observational data.|
|14:45||Aviation end user engagement and feedback ||Hammond, K et al.||Oral|
| ||Krista Hammond|
| ||Met Office|
| ||The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has provided a 24/7 operational service since 2014. To help build resilience to space weather in the UK, MOSWOC produces space weather information for government and responder communities, critical national infrastructure providers (including the aviation sector), and the public. MOSWOC also forms part of the PECASUS consortium, one of the 4 ICAO designated space weather centres providing space weather advisories for aviation.
To support the aviation industry and to help end users of aviation forecasts to understand the risks and challenges posed by severe space weather, the Met Office undertake a range of outreach and engagement activities with the aviation community. Space weather exercising is a key element of this engagement, through which we present participants with a realistic space weather scenario. As well as allowing the participants to investigate their response to severe space weather, these exercises allow the Met Office to gain an understanding of the useability and suitability of space weather forecasts, including the new ICAO service, and where improvement can be made.
|1||Monitoring the Impact of Space Weather using South African Near-Real Time Space Weather GNSS Products||Matamba, T et al.||Poster|
| ||Tshimangadzo M. Matamba, Donald W. Danskin |
| ||South African National Space Agency (SANSA), South Africa|
| ||The ionosphere affects how radio waves propagate from the satellite to ground-based receivers. During geomagnetic storms, the Total Electron Content (TEC) varies due to the changes in the electron distribution during the storm. The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) near-real-time TEC map version 2 shows the ionospheric variation during a geomagnetic storm. TEC from the maps compares well with TEC determined from ionosondes, and the quiet-time AFriTEC model for a five-day period. The gradients of the TEC maps follow the changes throughout the storm period.|
|2||ICAO Space Weather Advisories for Aviation||Sievers, K et al.||Poster|
| ||Klaus Sievers, Ralf Parzinger|
| ||VC German Airline Pilots´ Association , Frankfurt, Germany (( https://www.vcockpit.de/en.html ))|
| ||ICAO Space Weather Advisories
In 2018, a long process involving experts from many countries of the world came to a conclusion when the ICAO Air Navigation Commission and the Council of ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization, approved and published rules and guidance material on Space Weather advisories. Provisions for Space Weather were entered in ICAO Annex 3, Meteorology, effective from November 2018. The advisories are providing the most up to date information on space weather effects on shortwave radio communications, Global Navigation Satellite System (e.g. GPS) -based navigation, and radiation impacting humans. The introduction of space weather in the ICAO framework has been a great achievement. What is still outstanding is the development of procedures that are globally standardized on the application of the advisories, as well as the provision of adequate space weather knowledge to pilots, controllers and other aviation personnel.
The poster provides an introduction to the ICAO system and links to essential websites.
Klaus Sievers and Ralf Parzinger, Vereinigung Cockpit, Germany
European Cockpit Association: https://bit.ly/2VBT4zW
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (click to the advisories ): http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/space-weather-advisories/
PECASUS -a Global Space Weather Advisory Center- : https://pecasus.eu/
EASA, European Aviation Safety Agency, Bulletin on ´Effects of Space-Weather on Aviation´: https://ad.easa.europa.eu/ad/2012-09R1
IFALPA, International Federation of Airline Pilots´ Associations, Safety Bulletin on Space Weather Advisories:
|3||The first GLE (# 73 – 28-Oct-2021) of solar cycle 25: study of the space weather implications||Mishev, A et al.||Poster|
| ||Alexander Mishev|
| ||University of Oulu, Finland|
| ||The first solar proton event of solar cycle 25 was detected on 28 October 2021 by several neutron monitors (NMs) in the polar region; the strongest signal was registered by the DOMC/DOMB monitors located at the Antarctic plateau at Concordia French-Italian research station. It is identified as the GLE (ground-level enhancement) #73 in the International GLE database, as well as the fleet of space-borne instruments. Here, we report the observations and the study of this event using the global NM network and SOHO/ERNE records, namely the derived angular and spectral features of solar energetic protons, including their dynamical evolution throughout the event. Subsequently, employing a state-of-the-art model based on Monte Carlo simulations we assessed an important space weather implication as the exposure to radiation of passengers and aircrew, that is the effective dose as a global map at commercial flight altitude of 35 kft. |
|4||An optimized solution to long-distance flight routes under extreme cosmic radiation||Xue, D et al.||Poster|
| ||Dabin Xue[1,2], Jian Yang, Zhizhao Liu, and Bing Wang|
| ||Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; College of General Aviation and Flight, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China.|
| ||During extraordinary space weather, cosmic radiation can be significant enough to pose a threat to aircrew health. Traditional methods of reducing massive cosmic radiation exposure include flight cancellations, lowering flying altitudes, and flight rerouting. However, flight cancellations can result in additional financial expenditures, while lowering flight altitudes and rerouting can consequently cause more fuel consumption or even violation of airspace rights. As a result, we use a multi-objective optimization model to assign the optimal flight altitude and speed in order to reduce the overall weight sum of cosmic radiation and fuel consumption. The simulation scenario is based on a space weather event with dramatically increased cosmic radiation that occurred during a routine international flight from Tokyo to London. Our results show that the proposed model can reduce fuel consumption while satisfying cosmic radiation limits recommended by the Council of the European Union. In addition, a Pareto frontier is provided as a tactical air traffic management guideline. Our study provides insight to future policy making for air transportation during harsh space weather conditions.|
|5||Duration of Ionospheric Scintillation Events at Canadian High Latitudes. Probabilistic Model. ||Nikitina, L et al.||Poster|
| ||Lidia Nikitina, Raymond Langer|
| ||Natural Resources Canada|
| ||Ionospheric scintillation caused by space weather has impacts on the accuracy and availability of GNSS performance, and is considered a natural hazard for aviation and other GNSS users. The development of operational services to mitigate the risks to users requires the development of a forecast model for ionosphere scintillation.
This presentation provides new results from the development of a probabilistic model to forecast scintillation activity. To develop the regression model between scintillation and geomagnetic activity, the phase scintillation data from the Canadian High Arctic Ionosphere Network (CHAIN) were analyzed together with geomagnetic activity recorded at co-located Canadian geomagnetic observatories operated by Natural Resources Canada. This regression model was developed separately for local day and local night due to a difference in the day-side and night-side ionosphere. In addition to the regression estimation of expected intensity of scintillation event, this model provides duration of scintillation event exceeding moderate and severe thresholds defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for safe aviation operation.
Validation of this model was performed for several space weather events with strong ionospheric disturbances. It demonstrated a good agreement between the forecasted and observed intensity and duration of scintillation activity inside the confidence interval of the model.
|6||Effects of solar storm on radiation Exposure at Aviation Altitude||Nndanganeni, R et al.||Poster|
| ||R.R Nndanganeni, T.M Matamba|
| || South African National Space Agency (SANSA) Space Science, Hermanus, South Africa|
| ||Commercial aviation space is filled with intense particle radiation that poses a health risk to the aviation industry. The secondary and tertiary particles which results from the interaction of primary cosmic rays with atmospheric particles and commercial aircraft components are the primary causes of radiation dose deposited in human bodies and in electronic equipment during aircraft flights. Measurements of radiation exposure onboard are not conducted routinely and for specific flight routes as such we utilize the different available model to evaluate the amount of radiation that is received when flying.
Solar storms are one of the Space Weather events that have an impact contributing to enhancing the radiation exposure at aviation altitude. The effects of solar storm activity of the period 27-30 October 2003 and 2-6 November 2021 on radiation dose rate are analyzed. This will be done for the routes between Cape Town (33.97°S, 18.60°E)- Johannesburg (26.14°S, 28.24°E), Johannesburg-Cape Town, Durban (29.61°S, 31.12°E)-Johannesburg and Johannesburg-Durban. The radiation dose during solar storms will be compared with the radiation dose during the geomagnetic quietest day of the month. To evaluate the level of radiation exposure over these chosen different routes the MAIRE model and CARI7 models are used to generate the radiation dose rate data. This paper will present the model results and the finding for the given period.
|7||Dosimetric yield function at commercial aircraft cruising altitudes||Nndanganeni, R et al.||Poster|
| ||R.R Nndanganeni, G.M Mosotho andR.D. Strauss|
| ||South African National Space Agency (SANSA) Space Science, Hermanus, South Africa; North-West University, 11 Hoffman Street, Potchefstroom, South Africa.|
| ||Record breaking radiation levels in 2009 and 2020 as measured by neutron monitors during solar minimum, and solar energetic particles (SEPs) events during solar maximum are a concern for commercial aviation decision makers. Radiation exposure at cruise flight altitudes during strong SEP events can be significantly high compared to the expected background exposure due to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Therefore, as a result, robust spectral parametrization of the PAMELA/AMS-02 spectra has shown to be challenging and often impossible during SEP events. For the first time, the Convection-Diffusion Approximation (CDA) is applied to parameterize the CR spectra during the SEP event. Computation of global dosimeter dose rates at commercial flight altitudes requires knowledge of rigidity spectra (during quiet and intense periods) and yield functions. Using the TEPC latitude flight survey data of Matthiä et al.  and the incoming primary CRs as measured by PAMELA and approximated by CDA solution, the derived yield function through these experimental observations is discussed.|
|8||The Variation of Radiation Dose Rates at Aviation Altitudes with Magnetospheric and Geographic Conditions||Davis, C et al.||Poster|
| ||Christopher Davis, Keith Ryden, Alexander Hands, Fan Lei, Clive Dyer, Ben Clewer|
| ||University of Surrey|
| ||The geographic and altitude structure of radiation dose rates in Earth's atmosphere during the irradiation of Earth by protons from incoming solar particle events has been examined using the recently developed MAIRE+ software. Conditions were examined under two incoming proton spectra, a low spectral index and a high spectral index spectra, which are representative of some of the solar particle events that can cause Ground-Level Enhancements/Events (GLEs) in Earth's atmosphere. It is found through the use of 'cut-throughs' of the atmosphere that the atmosphere can be divided into three volumes; a high dose rate polar region, a low dose rate equatorial region, and a narrow transition region between the two, and the location of these regions as a function of latitude, longitude and altitude is characterised. It is also found that the location of the transition region changes for different magnetospheric disturbance levels, implying that the total radiation dose rate a plane will experience if it passes through the transition region will be subject to large systematic uncertainties, particularly during the currently unknown levels of magnetospheric disturbance that could occur at the same time as a major solar particle event.|
|9||Estimation of Radiation Dose Rates at the Aviation Flight Levels during Episodic Solar Proton Events||Kim, J et al.||Poster|
| ||Jiyoung Kim, Dong-Hee Lee|
| ||National Meteorological Satellite Center, Korea Meteorological Administration|
| ||Enhancement of radiation dose rates at the aviation flight levels (10, 11, and 12 km) during
episodic solar proton events (SPE) since January 1976 was estimated by using the KREAM (Korean
Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for the aviation route dose) model. GOES proton flux (> 10
MeV) as well as sunspot number archived by NOAA/SWPC was used as major input data for the
dose rate calculation. The maximum dose rate during the study period was appeared on October
20 (16:00 UT), 1989 with 161.50 uSv/hr at the flight level of 12 km. The SPE was associated with
the X13 flare on October 19 (12:58 UT). The maximum GOES proton flux (> 10 MeV) during the
event reached to 40,000 pfu. Region with severe dose rate (80 uSv/hr, according to the ICAO
manual) was in North America and distributed at a latitudinal area lower than 60 deg. North. The
second maximum during the study period was on March 24 (03:50 UT), 1991 with 157.86 uSv/hr
at the flight level of 12 km. The SPE was associated with X9 flare on March 22 (22:47 UT). The
maximum GOES proton flux (> 10 MeV) at the second maximum dose rate event reached to 43,
000 pfu, that is higher than the case of October 19, 1989 (i.e., 40,000 pfu). The reason for thus
difference could be resulted from the solar modulation effect. The estimated dose rates for the
major top 10 SPE events during the study period will be presented and the main results are also
|10||Altitude profile of atmospheric radiation in the Arctic region derived with with MDU-1 Liulin during scientific balloon flight ||Mishev, A et al.||Poster|
| ||Alexander Mishev, Alexandros Binios, Esa Turunen, Nicholas Larsen, Ari-Pekka Leppanen, Eija Tanskanen, Ilya Usoskin, Jouni Envall, Toivo Iinatti, Pasi Lakkala |
| ||SGO-University of Oulu, Finland; STUK, Rovaniemi, Finland |
| ||Measurements of the natural radiation background, specifically at commercial jet flight altitudes are notably important in order to compare and eventually inter-calibrate different experimental set-ups, to provide a reliable basis for improving the existing models related to the cosmic ray impact radiation in the Earth's atmosphere. Here, we report results from zero-pressure stratospheric balloon flight in the frame of the HEMERA 2 mission, that is measurements performed with a small portable device, (MDU)-1 Liulin. We derived the altitude profile of the atmospheric radiation in the Arctic region, namely in between estrange Kiruna, Sweden and Rovaniemi, Finland. The preliminary analysis shows a good agreement between the measurements and Oulu models for atmospheric ionization and exposure to radiation. |
|11||Challenges in space weather alerting for aviation||Maneva, Y et al.||Poster|
| ||Y. Maneva, J. Andries, J. de Patoul, F. Verstringe and K. Loumou|
| ||Royal Observatory of Belgium|
| ||Since several years Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE) takes part in one of the four global centres providing 24/7 real-time space weather services to the international civil aviation organization (ICAO). The operational space weather services for aviation have started in November 2019 and many underlying supporting monitoring and alerting tools have extensively been developed at STCE. In this work we will demonstrate the operational infrastructure utilized and developed at STCE for the continuous space weather services within the three main domains of interest for aviation: satellite navigation, radiation dose at different flight levels and long-distance radio communication. We will present the implemented monitoring and automated alerting tools based on predefined event thresholds and discuss some of the operational challenges imposed, for example, by sparse data sets, delays in real time data products, identical signatures for false and real scintillation alerts, etc. We will also discuss the limitations for using fully automated alerting and advisory generation system and the necessity for having human operators continuously access and evaluate the alerting process.|
|12||SRF2 - A short-term (1-24) hour foF2 prediction method||Perrone, L et al.||Poster|
| || L. Perrone*(1) and A.V. Mikhailov(2,1) |
| ||(1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Rome, Italy, e-mail: email@example.com (2) Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN),Moscow, Russian Federation e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org|
| ||A sunrise F2-layer (SRF2) short-term (1-24) h foF2 prediction method has been developed to forecast foF2 variations at a given ionosonde station during magnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The proposed method efficiently describes both positive and negative quiet-time F2-layer disturbances under daily Ap < 30 nT and this was done for the first time. A comparison with modern global empirical models demonstrates a statistically significant advantage over them under various seasons and levels of solar activity.
|13||An index for characterizing the geographical coverage of TEC maps||Cilliers, P et al.||Poster|
| ||Pierre Cilliers|
| ||South African National Space Agency, Hermanus, South Africa|
| ||Global and regional maps showing total electron content (TEC) based on GNSS data are among the products required by the ICAO Space Weather Manual. These maps are used for the formulation of alerts based on moderate (MOD, TEC>125 TECu), and severe (SEV, TEC>175 TECu) levels of space weather intensity over a region of interest. TEC maps are often generated by interpolation of measurements by means of ground-based GNSS receivers. There is a trade-off between the minimum update cadence of real-time TEC maps and the accuracy of the maps due to the limited coverage of the ionospheric pierce points (IPPs) of ray paths to GNSS satellites over the area of interest.
We will present a proposed index which combines map cadence and IPP coverage over a given region which can be used to characterize the quality of TEC maps and their relationship to the geographic distribution of the GNSS receivers and the GNSS satellite configuration. The index can be used to optimize the tradeoff between cadence and TEC map quality.
Map quality is evaluated by comparing the known vertical TEC derived from a modelled ionosphere with the estimated vertical TEC at IPPs of actual ray paths of GNSS satellites to ground-based receivers.
Typical results are shown using data from a network of GNSS receivers in Southern Africa.
|14||A new fast and higher resolution Kp-like index, FKp, for Space Weather Operations||Clarke, E et al.||Poster|
| ||Ellen Clarke, Alan Thomson, Fan Lei, Christopher Davis, Ben Clewer  and Keith Ryden|
| ||British Geological Survey; Surrey Space Centre, University of Surrey|
| ||A significant space weather risk is due to solar particle events containing a flux of high energy particles, which can lead to undesirable levels of radiation dose to aircrew and passengers, as well as create problems with onboard microelectronic technology. These dosages can be estimated using the established MAIRE models, which are described elsewhere in this session (Ryden et al, ESWW-2022). An important aspect of these models is the influence of the Earth's magnetic field at the time of the events. Geomagnetic disturbances are modelled by generating cut-off rigidity as a function of Kp using the Tsyganenko model.
It is known that the sensitivity of radiation dosages to changes in disturbance levels (E.g. Davis et al, ESWW-2022) can be significant and therefore it is speculated that the low time resolution of the 3-hourly Kp index is not sufficient to correctly account for the magnetic field disturbances and that a higher resolution is needed. Additionally, to be of use operationally, any geomagnetic index used needs to be updated (and available) in real-time.
The objective therefore was to create an index that will provide real-time information on the disturbance levels with sufficient resolution to improve the MAIRE models and at the same time match (as closely as possible) the statistical properties of the original Kp index series. The process to select this new Kp-like, faster index, which has been named FKp, is described and FKp, computed over various time windows and cadences, are compared to the original Kp. The results to-date from using the new FKp on the modelled radiation dose rates are also shown.
This work is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK under Grant Numbers NE/V002694/1 (BGS) and NE/V002899/1 (University of Surrey) as part of the UKRI SWIMMR Programme.