Session SWR3 - Radiation Belts Forecast Applications for End-Users: from current achievements and needs to future requirements

Vincent Maget (ONERA, France), Ingmar Sandberg (SPARC, Greece), Alexi Glover (ESA/ESOC, Germany)



The prediction of Radiation Belts dynamics is a key element for the creation of reliable operation models. This field is currently very active in terms of on-going research and development efforts in the framework of Space Weather activities (fundings from National Agencies, EU’s Horizon 2020 programme and European Space Agency’s Space Safety Programme). Quality of Radiation Belts nowcast and forecast is of prime importance for satellite stakeholders and operators in order to ensure the survivability of their in-orbit systems. However, bridging domains to ensure specific needs and requirements of the End-Users can be met with current and future capabilities of Space Weather oriented tools and models continues to be challenging. In parallel, provision of accurate nowcasts and forecasts remain always challenging as it requires federating together members from the whole Sun-Earth connection scientific community, especially to quantify successfully the dynamical radiation environment along satellite orbits. The purpose of this session is to bring together scientists, operators and modelers that have been involved in recent and on-going European efforts, spanning from the definition of the current and the future End-Users requirements, to the developments conducted on all related critical topics. Highlights on nowcast/forecast framework design, validation and performance assessment, as well as on data and models used and/or expected to improve such forecast, are welcome.